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Thread: Recession?

  1. #1361
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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    Wuhan farmer's market?

    PDW
    Best answer yet

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    OK- really just one more....


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    Hope otrlt doesn't see this

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    OK- really just one more....

    Definitely a bull trap. This situation is economically unsustainable. This is the reason why Trump (let’s stay bipartisan about this) is starting to infer we work through it and accept the collateral damage (or should I say opportunity cost)for the greater good of a stronger US economy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by countryboy1966 View Post
    Definitely a bull trap. This situation is economically unsustainable. This is the reason why Trump (let’s stay bipartisan about this) is starting to infer we work through it and accept the collateral damage (or should I say opportunity cost)for the greater good of a stronger US economy.
    To start off, thanks for the chart work TrBoat.

    What I don't understand is why I get trashed when I praised Carbide Bob for making an excellent timely investment.

    Anyway, no big deal. For those that did step in to buy BA last week, congratulations, you've doubled your money. I think that is very cool.

    A big Cap Dow component, doubling in 3 days... that is very impressive.

    RISK ON, The Bears are done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    A big Cap Dow component, doubling in 3 days... that is very impressive.
    Never underestimate the generosity of working class Americans.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    To start off, thanks for the chart work TrBoat.

    What I don't understand is why I get trashed when I praised Carbide Bob for making an excellent timely investment. . . .
    Not by me. What I appreciate about your approach, Otrit, is that while being wildly optimistic you haven't (with one exception, you later edited out) been ugly to others. You're probably a good guy to have as a neighbor.

    Understand, though, that there are plenty of equally hard-working here who wouldn't want you as their financial advisor. Recent track record and all. Over the long run buying and holding good companies (long as they stay good companies) has been good advice. Sadly, less so, the more we game the whole market; but that's another story.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Has anyone written authoritatively on charting as a way of peering into peoples' minds? And wouldn't there be a desire to chart both the optimists and pessimists and game how they play out?
    There are two (main) analysis ways or methods of picking securities, Fundamental and Technical. The Fundamentalist look at the business, financial reports, strategy, market, leadership and etc and form an opinion. Real data in the real world is the strength, the weakness is you can only get and process so much info and are stuck with you bias, its one persons view.

    Technical analysis (the bible is Murphy's Fundamental Analysis of Technical Markets, sitting on my shelf as well as any person who ever looked at a chart) relies on analysis and applying lines and limits and moving averages and other mathematical gymnastics to them. The weakness is obvious, its review view mirror and ignores all the real world context. The strength, and counterargument to the weakness, is that at any given point in time the price represents the aggregate knowledge of every soul on planet regarding the stock, and by paying attention to pattern of prices (trends) one is suppose to gain insight into the aggregate of every participants view of the stock.

    Of course both camps until recently thought they were brilliant, sort of ignoring that fact that its been decade long bull market.

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Not by me. What I appreciate about your approach, Otrit, is that while being wildly optimistic you haven't (with one exception, you later edited out) been ugly to others. Y.
    your view. Mine is what could possibly be more harmful than making pronouncements and giving advice to others like an oracle from a position of utter ignorance. That's my conclusion based on zero supporting rational and argument to queries into numerous fortune cookie lines. We might get along great as neighbors or having a beer, but that specific behaviour is wrong imo. Advising people on investments should not be like cheerleading.
    Last edited by Mcgyver; 03-27-2020 at 06:16 AM.

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  12. #1369
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Not by me. What I appreciate about your approach, Otrit, is that while being wildly optimistic you haven't (with one exception, you later edited out) been ugly to others. You're probably a good guy to have as a neighbor.

    Understand, though, that there are plenty of equally hard-working here who wouldn't want you as their financial advisor. Recent track record and all. Over the long run buying and holding good companies (long as they stay good companies) has been good advice. Sadly, less so, the more we game the whole market; but that's another story.
    Thanks Pete for your honest opinion,

    Throughout this thread I insisted to ALWAYS be fully invested.

    Never try to time the market, the ones that make the most $... never sell quality business.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    . . . The strength, and counterargument to the weakness, is that at any given point in time the price represents the aggregate knowledge of every sole on planet regarding the stock . . ..
    The bit I'm trying to tease out is that this isn't just the aggregate knowledge of all participants, but also the aggregate optimism, irrational exuberence, pessimism, fears, anchoring, endowment effects, etc. of all participants. People used to win Nobel Prizes in economics for assuming perfect knowledge and rationality. Now they win them for exposing imperfect knowledge and irrationality.

    Seems to me someone might have written on charting as not just the trajectory of new-found knowledge about companies but also of newly-expressed emotion? To your point of looking in the rear view mirror, might even be possible to measure buyer sentiment as a way of anticipating change. I'd guess that less than a few percent of citizens move the markets, while most all of us contribute (and ahead of stock market moves) to buyer sentiment.

    To give a contemporary example - the recent supply and demand curve for toilet paper would likely confound rational analysis. A chart showing it represents more a Rorschach test of buyer sentiment than any breakthroughs in the design, manufacture, distribution, or demographic bulge moving from diapers to TP etc. affecting toilet paper makers.

    What's kind of interesting about asset value in the times of this pandemic is that there are somewhat clearly delineated groups of sentiment. One believing it was no big deal, something to be overcome by a bit of financial tinkering, right up to a collapse. Another taking the collapse likely more seriously than likely need be. One would think those conflicting sentiments might as much responsible for the upper and lower bounds on any of TR's charts as long-term P&L& growth projections?

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    The bit I'm trying to tease out is that this isn't just the aggregate knowledge of all participants, but also the aggregate optimism, irrational exuberence, pessimism, fears, anchoring, endowment effects, etc. of all participants. People used to win Nobel Prizes in economics for assuming perfect knowledge and irrationality. Now they win them for exposing imperfect knowledge and irrationality.

    Seems to me someone might have written on charting as not just the trajectory of new-found knowledge about companies but also of newly-expressed emotion?

    Of course, the price is based on everything, all that you listed. Try to get someone to admit they're bullish because of irrational exuberance vs something they know or belief about the future. Its only hindsight that lets us see the flaw in our thinking.

    btw, those economist are largely being proven right again. The studies and evidence around altruism etc is proving to be deeply flawed, the latest socioeconomic stuff is siding with the original economics view. Common sense really when you think it through. You can get a wide range of results depending on how you design the experiment, but people do act in their own interests i.e. the $20 dictator game etc ....its just that often one of their strong interests is how they are perceived, especially when the stakes are low

    One would think those conflicting sentiments might as much responsible for the upper and lower bounds on any of TR's charts as long-term P&L& growth projections?
    no imo because whether you are short or long (sell or buy) is function of price. At $70 you're holding, and 75 you sell 10%, 10% more at 80 etc. You can see the stack of bids and asks real time, it changes with every price move. And for sure markets are not immune to manias and for sure get overbought and oversold...but not suppose to be stuck in a camp. If its a tug of war between bulls and bears, the rule, unlike the company picnic game, is your out for yourself not team bull or bear. So its a not good way of looking at it as any participant at any point in time is supposed get themselves on the winning side and can switch at will.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Finegrain View Post
    Hope otrlt doesn't see this
    Hello Finegrain,

    TRs charts are very interesting, although they depict what has already occurred, they are still very useful in forecasting the future. The key to truly having some incite of what may happen in markets, one has to study where the big shorts are. Short sellers are perennial losers, look-up the most heavily shorted stock or commodity, and it will be more likely to out perform.

    As of today, Tesla is one of the most shorted stock.

    Let's see what happens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post

    TRs charts are very interesting, although they depict what has already occurred, they are still very useful in forecasting the future.
    Teeny bit of a logical fallacy there. Let's examine the past *real* close to see exactly what's going to happen in the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    There are two (main) ways or methods of picking securities, Fundamental and Technical. The Fundamentalist look at the business, financial reports, strategy, market, leadership and etc and form an opinion. Real data in the real world is the strength, the weakness is you can only get and process so much info and are stuck with you bias, its one persons view.

    Technical analysis (the bible is Murphy's Fundamental Analysis of Technical Markets, sitting on my shelf as well as any person who ever looked at a chart) relies on analysis and applying lines and limits and moving averages and other mathematical gymnastics to them. The weakness is obvious, its review view mirror and ignores all the real world context. The strength, and counterargument to the weakness, is that at any given point in time the price represents the aggregate knowledge of every sole on planet regarding the stock, and by paying attention to pattern of prices (trends) one is suppose to gain insight into the aggregate every participants view of the stock.

    Of course both camps until recently thought they were brilliant, sort of ignoring that fact that its been decade long bull market.



    your view. Mine is what could possibly be more harmful than making pronouncements and giving advice to others like an oracle from a position of utter ignorance. That's my conclusion based on zero supporting rational and argument to queries into numerous fortune cookie lines. We might get along great as neighbors or having a beer, but that specific behaviour is wrong imo. Advising people on investments should not be like cheerleading.
    I don't give advise. What I plainly said is that US industrials are accelerating, this virus will not derail their progress. it will only accelerate it.


    You are obviously not engaged with US business

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    In fact ,the market must now rise ,because all prices are being inflated by funny money.....Index at 35,000?-----try 35,000,000 when finally a halt is called to the funny money....How does all this work ,simple ,funny money steals the savings of the careful and frugal ,and funnels it into the pockets of crooks who pay themselves huge bonuses for whatever reason ,or no reason at all ,and finance political influence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    The strength, and counterargument to the weakness, is that at any given point in time the price represents the aggregate knowledge of every sole on planet regarding the stock ...
    Discrimination ! what about us heels ?

    Sorry, couldn't help myself


    @Boozer, woof ! woof ! woof woof !

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    The PM here has come up with the bright idea to "put the economy into hibernation for six months"....No more rents ,mortgage payments ,interest, to banks ,....possibly no more food either ,if its a proper hibernation.........but what about all the fortunates who work for governments ,councils ,cops ,etc ...who will be paid a normal wage ....or will they?....Wacko ideas ,101.

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    But here s another wacko idea ...if Trump had thrown his money at stopping this virus four weeks ago ,there would be zero cases in the US.........but the suspicious of mind point out ,it wouldnt have gone to his buddies,then.

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  25. #1379
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Discrimination ! what about us heels ?

    Sorry, couldn't help myself
    yeah, you got me there....sloppy

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    A quick look before I roll out to shop.
    Dow futures contract:



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