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Thread: Recession?

  1. #1481
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    I said a while back- we are in a new epoch.
    I don’t see this as a simple “correction” from the prior trend or economic condition.
    While true the developmental progress will continue and is not even perhaps pausing during this time I see a new structure being present from this date forward.
    It is literally as if the society has a new health condition.
    It will again thrive but accommodation will be present for some time and they will shift the economic structures.
    Place your bets on winning- well certainly we will prevail.
    I just think a nuanced observer should look for long lasting change.

    Shall we look to precedents?
    The devastating period of WW1 with the accompanying Spanish flu we followed by the vigor of the ‘roaring’ twenties.
    Can we parse cause and effect...

    Does the machine ever stop when a bearing is thrown when so many stand ready to provide that drop of oil or rebuild the works...

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    Unfortunately the not so magic blue dots didnt make it over the line for the DJ30 this week.


    WTI managed to change tack tho so a chance to give the sell button a rest

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Shall we look to precedents?
    The devastating period of WW1 with the accompanying Spanish flu we followed by the vigor of the ‘roaring’ twenties.
    Which led directly to ... ?

    Can we parse cause and effect...
    I can. And it looks like PeteM has a handle on it.

    But maybe the most accurate observation was PDW's, "senile elephant in must."

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Which led directly to ... ?


    I can. And it looks like PeteM has a handle on it.

    But maybe the most accurate observation was PDW's, "senile elephant in must."
    See your cronies.

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    [QUOTE=CarbideBob;3521669]Not sure where that information comes from.
    Production is not slowed, it is 100% stopped. Right now no one is building automobiles in the United States.
    Bob[/QUOT

    Well we old machinist has remember how nice you been before pointing out how stoopids and worthless we be maser.

    That because you is a big important man.

    We knowed you might be lonely one day and in trouble so we saved a chair for you here on the porch with us.



    We are not has been failures like you called us.

    We are nice Christian folk here in the Bible Belt.

    You do know the Bible right?

    Don’t mind the dogs growling they don’t bite less I telled them to.

    Florida is nice isn’t it?

    Lots of people from Michigan here.

    That ankle bracelet is only till after you pass your Florida manners classes.

    Oh don’t backtalk the cops here because it will be worse than where you lived up there wasn’t it Mount Olympus ??!!
    no I remember it was Flint Michigan.

    After a while once you start to become a nicer and better man the dogs will stop growling at you and if you are real good maybe Locals won’t sic them on you.

    The cool clear water is good to drink here on a hot summer afternoon.

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    What I am afraid of, is this is now an excellent excuse for some companies to trim the workforce, some drastically, reduce wages for the folks that were kept, now working their asses off, and possibly speed up implementation of automation/robotic processes. That just because you got laid off for the virus does not mean you will be rehired when/if it is resolved. Thus the circle will begin again...anybody reading Marx lately?

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    [QUOTE=daryl bane;352197 That just because you got laid off for the virus does not mean you will be rehired when/if it is resolved. [/QUOTE]

    Just because you owned a company or ran a corporation before, does not mean that company will survive after, or the corporation
    will still exist after. The black death was partly responsible for ending the feudal system in Europe.

    Sure the guy who runs Boeing will be happy to rehire at half the compensation when it's over. Will anyone want to buy a Boeing
    airplane after it's over?

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  11. #1488
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    Quote Originally Posted by daryl bane View Post
    What I am afraid of, is this is now an excellent excuse for some companies to trim the workforce, some drastically, reduce wages for the folks that were kept, now working their asses off, and possibly speed up implementation of automation/robotic processes. That just because you got laid off for the virus does not mean you will be rehired when/if it is resolved. Thus the circle will begin again...anybody reading Marx lately?
    I think that is a very reasonable observation.
    The other side is investment without a consumer market should be dampened so as to slow that shift.

    We could see a rise of a new feudalism.
    The few wage providers with a captive workforce in company towns.
    Let’s hope a dystopian future remains the stuff of idle entertainment..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    We could see a rise of a new feudalism.
    The few wage providers with a captive workforce in company towns.
    Let’s hope a dystopian future remains the stuff of idle entertainment..
    I think that's an exaggeration. Geopolitically there will doubtless be changes, the US has displayed its clay feet for all to see and the pumped-up stock market, where that will land nobody knows. But overall, it's not that many people. I remember the US at 250 million and it was pretty okay, wasn't on the brink of living in hovels or anything

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I think that's an exaggeration (end of civilization etc.).
    I'd agree with that. It will likely take something more like climate change or nuclear winter or the backlash from extreme inequality to take down civilization. Maybe even take out the last chimp standing if we really screw up.

    We're certainly flying into turbulent territory, though. And the captain is drunk on personal aggrandizement rather than telling passengers to fasten their seat belts. The co-captain (not Pence, Faucci I guess) eventually got the message out. But, between a third of passengers ignoring it and partying in the aisle -- and another third finding their seat belts and breathing masks missing -- there's going to be a lot of unnecessary hurt out of this.

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    “ I think that's an exaggeration.”

    Of course it is an exaggeration.
    Things generally move forward- plain realities of the past are in the past.
    “Company town “ is of course a figurative term but the reference to a labor glut being in place in the presence of increased automation re- Banes point is a valid one.
    Will we see such a shift ?- I think not past perhaps an incremental increase.
    Has China shifted from company towns BTW
    Seems a bit more than a figure of speech currently...

    Apple '''iPhone City''' workers share what life is like in factory town - Business Insider

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    Im still not totally sold on CV being as serious as the media makes out atm, should have a better idea over the next couple weeks
    In a structural sense im keeping an eye on what gets changed legislation wise and what the CBs do with regards to consolidating power.
    Im concerned about the mental state of general folk and how much and for how long the pain will be turned up to justify change.
    GL all

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    Okay, assuming you're correct in what you say about the internal workings, …...….and assuming the virus emergency ends in (say) 3 months, who is going to have the money to spend on manufactured and consumer items.

    Everyone will be up to their eyeballs in debt from just staying alive, the 2nd hand market will be awash with anything that can raise a few $ to live on, ………….while the ''lucky few'' that still have money, would be plain out of their tiny minds to want to travel anywhere they do not absolutely have to.
    There was a cartoon on the editorial page of my Sunday newspaper last week. I think it was a take on an old wartime one. In it a young couple are drawn with their backs to the artist. They are sat arm in arm looking at a lovely sun set.

    The woman is saying to the man - " When this is all over what will have to change ? "

    The man replies - " Everything ! "

    Regards Tyrone.

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  19. #1494
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    TR, good to have you back with us!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    [
    Well we old machinist has remember how nice you been before pointing out how stoopids and worthless we be maser.
    That because you is a big important man.
    ....
    So confused here. Where did I do wrong and make you unhappy with me?
    I am never big and important.
    You have the whole rant which is all so good but why shit down my neck?
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    So confused here. Where did I do wrong and make you unhappy with me?
    I am never big and important.
    You have the whole rant which is good but why shit down my neck?
    Bob
    I remember I felt the same when you said the typical you are old and worthless trope you and others pull frequently on here. I have watched too how many think it is great that older people are at the highest risk too of Corona virus. Say that about your elderly relatives? This site is not a kind place and you are not a good man.

    I am not the first you disgraced for fun because you gathered they escaped into retirement alive.

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    Somebody must have pissed on his boots and told him it was raining.

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    Pretty sure anyone with "Carbide" in their name has to be a good man.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    Not sure where that information comes from.
    Production is not slowed, it is 100% stopped. Right now no one is building automobiles in the United States.
    Bob
    I agree that the summer shutdown has come a few months early for the Big 3. The rest of the industrial base of the US economy is still working.

    What many of you do not understand is that these company's are still going forward, these guys never quit.

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    You can forget Trump,the virus is in control now..........he s sailed into a gale unprepared,the mast is overboard,he s in survival mode....Its all up to state governors ,and maybe how well they can co operate ......Otrits big production reminds me of the early 70s recession ....GM had hundreds of acres of unsold cars ,not even the desire to maintain them ...cars with six inches of stinky water inside,rust holes in the bodies.Ford didnt seem to do quite so badly .


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