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  1. #1581
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    1. It doubt it will take 3 months here, nobody would stand for it. My bet is four weeks tops, from the time the first statewide stay-at-home order was issued. As soon as the hospitalization rate drops to the point where our media can't pretend otherwise, it's over. To paraphrase Trump, open back up and live with it.

    2. Pent-up demand will get manufacturing caught up pretty quick. If you're 20 and don't get your barista job back, well, you can always run for Congress.

    3. We aren't under a lockdown in Wyoming. The schools, restaurants, bars, movies, daycare, etc. are closed—understandably, because that's where you get sick anyway, Wuhan or no Wuhan. We wear masks when leaving the building, wipe incoming parcels down with alcohol, and stay as far away from each other as possible. As long as there is sufficient revenue to support everybody's wages and taxes we will keep working 40-hour weeks. Unless of course somebody comes down with it, but until then collective impoverishment seems like the greater risk.
    I admire your optimism but 4 weeks tops? ……….it's my opinion the pandemics hardly got started, .and no civilised 1st world population is going to stand for streets full of bodies because the healthcare systems been completely over run - simply due to getting the economy moving again - AKA greed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    I admire your optimism but 4 weeks tops? ……….it's my opinion the pandemics hardly got started, .and no civilised 1st world population is going to stand for streets full of bodies because the healthcare systems been completely over run - simply due to getting the economy moving again - AKA greed.
    Sam,
    Have a look here. Early days but we'll see
    COVID-19 in Proportion? - InProportion2

    EURO MOMO - outputs - zscore total

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  4. #1583
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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Sam,
    Have a look here. Early days but we'll see
    COVID-19 in Proportion? - InProportion2

    EURO MOMO - outputs - zscore total
    Fair point Barbter, ...BOTOH don't get me started on f'kn architects - (bolt em all together and you still wouldn't have a wanker) .and as always, who's backing / paying him?

    Furthermore, .........why would the gov't have spent god knows how much building emergency hospitals etc etc etc (racking up the tab of a lifetime) if it wasn't serious?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    Furthermore, .........why would the gov't have spent god knows how much building emergency hospitals etc etc etc (racking up the tab of a lifetime) if it wasn't serious?
    Small price to pay to keep the fear levels high.
    If it gets everyone back in their box killing Brexit, Vox, Yellow vests, Salvinis lot etc, AND heavily reduces the black markets, it's all chump change.

    Remember - Trump's launched 8.3 Bill in aid, UK 400Bill with any amount more if required, Spain 220Bill package (I thought they were bankrupt!) EU 37Bill with unlimited top up etc.
    Money only seems to matter to us lot.

    A mate in Aus has just said that the gestapo are door knocking checking on firearms and removing them for BS reasons. They've also banned all sales of guns and ammo.
    Wifeys Bro in Cyprus can only leave their property once a day, but he (everyone in Cyprus) has to text message the gubmint and ask permission telling them why they are leaving/where they are going, and they can only leave when they get a reply text with an approval number.
    We had the gestapo flying a drone above our house this morning - checking we haven't dared step outside the gate.

    Money is not the thing here.
    Power is...

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post

    Money is not the thing here.
    Power is...
    NO people DIEING is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    ...
    It is wrong to point a finger at law abiding people and essentially ban sales or possession or firearms.
    Thing is that the concerns over gun violence in the country they already will ban anyone who has a domestic violence conviction.
    You can't have it both ways. Either they are law abiding or they were convicted of a crime. Those are typically felonies BTW.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    NO people DIEING is.
    To us yes. I certainly don't want it.
    But I think the money men look at this as collateral damage.

    Spain (Madrid) wouldn't be anywhere near as bad as what it is, if the 'tards had stopped the big march and the footy game where '0000's of people attended.
    Which was the weekend of March 8th - and Jan/early Feb it was suspected this was going to potentially be bad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    To us yes. I certainly don't want it.
    But I think the money men look at this as collateral damage.

    Spain (Madrid) wouldn't be anywhere near as bad as what it is, if the 'tards had stopped the big march and the footy game where '0000's of people attended.
    Which was the weekend of March 8th - and Jan/early Feb it was suspected this was going to potentially be bad.


    Granted they may well think that, ......but they know (or should do) they are not immune from the population's actions ..................as many late rulers, dictators, despots and tyrants discovered.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Is your pension okay?
    Not that I had alot in there, but mine dropped 10k£.
    I know a chap who has so far lost 75k in his...

    And I'd be REALLY careful of having money in the bank.
    I'm sure a haircut/bailin is coming (vis-a-vis Cyprus 2012 financial crisis test run...)
    I'm actually £30k down at this point. But it's a long term thing and I hope that it'll grow back over the next decade. The income I'm taking is the same, but the spending has gone slightly down at the moment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    Granted they may well think that, ......but they know (or should do) they are not immune from the population's actions ..................as many late rulers, dictators, despots and tyrants discovered.
    True but now *they* have technology on their side.
    And laws (Spain just implemented that it can shut down mobile and internet network if there's any social unrest).
    All mobile phones being followed.
    All internet being read.
    And at this moment in time - 45k troops hanging around in Europe...waiting...for....something...???

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    True but now *they* have technology on their side.
    And laws (Spain just implemented that it can shut down mobile and internet network if there's any social unrest).
    All mobile phones being followed.
    All internet being read.
    And at this moment in time - 45k troops hanging around in Europe...waiting...for....something...???

    That's because how serious the pandemic is.

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    The simplest arithmetic says the contagion is not going to be over in 3 /6 /9 months without locking everyone in their houses and keeping them there..(the Chinese snatched anyone on the street) ......if we accept the most optimistic estimate of 20% recovered population to normalise (merkel says 60%),and we assume that recovered persons wont become reinfected at some near point (cf influenza)....then current 1/2 million US cases must become 60 million ,or merkels 200 million in the US.........this assumes a vaccine is not found .....and as someone has pointed out ,a vaccine developed for the SARS virus increased the fatality rate in vaccinated persons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    T...
    But I think the money men look at this as collateral damage.
    Until the money men start to catch the virus. Last I looked it doesn't care
    about your bank balance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by john.k View Post
    The simplest arithmetic says the contagion is not going to be over in 3 /6 /9 months without locking everyone in their houses and keeping them there..(the Chinese snatched anyone on the street) ......if we accept the most optimistic estimate of 20% recovered population to normalise (merkel says 60%),and we assume that recovered persons wont become reinfected at some near point (cf influenza)....then current 1/2 million US cases must become 60 million ,or merkels 200 million in the US.........this assumes a vaccine is not found .....and as someone has pointed out ,a vaccine developed for the SARS virus increased the fatality rate in vaccinated persons.
    Good evening john,
    You've been listening to Dr. (Doom) Fauici a bit too much.

    Relax john, put on a Allman Brothers Band album and burn one, you'll feel much better in no-time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter
    A mate in Aus has just said that the gestapo are door knocking checking on firearms and removing them for BS reasons. They've also banned all sales of guns and ammo.
    Think that's Victoria with the bans. The cops do call around checking firearms and gun safes all the time up this way, haven't heard anything significantly different happening - they're more inclined in using manpower at present stopping you going onto the beach....good luck there if a decent swell turns up over Easter!

    Interesting analysis out of Germany, death rate might be less than originally thought, although if the US figures are right, 4 weeks is way optimistic and still be totally rooted. COVID-19 - Georg-August-Universitat Gottingen

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    Dr. Doom Fauci has lost his mind.

    He now states that we should never shake hands again.

    His career is over.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    Relax john, put on a Allman Brothers Band album and burn one, you'll feel much better in no-time.

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    Wot?..Me Worry?

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    So, when Biden wins in November, does that mean the stock market's bottom will drop out.. .that only trump being in office guarantee's it's non-stop rise?

    When trump loses, and refuses to acknowledge the loss and instead insists it's all due to minorities voting by mail in ballots and that they're all invalid, or some other far out excuse... and he's not leaving... what will the stock market do?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Business as usual or are we going to slide into a protracted bear trend.

    Well, TR, since we're all DJIA pundits here, I'm going with a 25,000 Dow after we come out of this. Sole reason being the "anchoring" notion in behavioral psychology. Recall that 30,000 was the magical number we couldn't quite reach going up, and my earlier prediction that around 20,000 would be the magical number for resistance going down. 25,000 might represent a somewhat chastened group of gamblers.

    I'm so confident of us settling near a 25,000 Dow (+/- 25,000 points) that I'll accept bets on it.


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