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Thread: Recession?

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    The finance man on the telly shows the squiggle currently matching the 2008 squiggle ,and set for another 20% fall as in 2009......Called it a bear trap ,I think....Still ,the market runs on confidence and little else ,as P/E ratios are still way outside what any sane person would risk money on.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Well, TR, since we're all DJIA pundits here, I'm going with a 25,000 Dow after we come out of this. Sole reason being the "anchoring" notion in behavioral psychology. Recall that 30,000 was the magical number we couldn't quite reach going up, and my earlier prediction that around 20,000 would be the magical number for resistance going down. 25,000 might represent a somewhat chastened group of gamblers.

    I'm so confident of us settling near a 25,000 Dow (+/- 25,000 points) that I'll accept bets on it.
    Pete I rather like that chart I posted.
    It illustrates one of my fundamental beliefs of the last several years of market behavior.
    The anomaly was really the rise which broke above trend.
    All this selling in that view is just returning to trend.
    It makes one wonder if we are in fact in for truly new market conditions from this virus which will be reflected in equities.
    Thus far I would say the move simply found a pretext.

    That’s why I find that support line interesting.
    Below it is a true sell off.
    Above it simply an intact trend.

    I believe we need to watch carefully for signs of a more protracted disruption.
    How will Europe fair.
    Are there fault lines which may lead to failures again and the longer term recovery needed which accompany those changes.

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    As I posted a week or so ago, there will be a earnings surprise by a bluechip industrial, my guess it's Honeywell, but Ratheion (RTX) is showing lot's of upward volume. Whichever the company that makes this happen... we're going to new highs...

    In a hurry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Pete I rather like that chart I posted.
    .
    yeah, but what do the tea leaves say?

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    When I see something that suggests a call can be made I say so.
    To me trading has never been knowing what will happen, it’s more watching to see if what has been established continues.
    I have to say I know where to watch - what occurs is the trade- direction doesn’t really matter eh.
    Just don’t hold if price goes against a position.
    I have been buying the oil sector stocks.
    I am short the index in a small way.
    My tea leaves say so and both trades are in profit.

    I am genuinely curious about the general trend.
    It remains a major call that some might be able to make.
    For me just now it’s a generalized observation.
    The bull trend from 2009 forward is intact.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    When I see something that suggests a call can be made I say so.
    To me trading has never been knowing what will happen, it’s more watching to see if what has been established continues.
    I have to say I know where to watch - what occurs is the trade- direction doesn’t really matter eh.
    Just don’t hold if price goes against a position.
    I have been buying the oil sector stocks.
    I am short the index in a small way.
    My tea leaves say so and both trades are in profit.

    I am genuinely curious about the general trend.
    It remains a major call that some might be able to make.
    For me just now it’s a generalized observation.
    The bull trend from 2009 forward is intact.
    Its, imo, difficult to argue the underlying logic for technical analysis is valid right now. That logic being the price represents the sum total of current knowledge. In 'normal' times current knowledge does give one some chance at predicting tomorrow....that's no longer the case as current knowledge means about bugger as to what will happen tomorrow. We're uncharted economic waters.

    Keep in mind TA at the best of times is far from universally accepted. Its a belief as opposed to a accepted knowledge. I kind of like it and its not without its merits, but imo should be combined with its alternative, fundamental analysis. Use whats appropriate, imo TA is current not because the forces moving the market are . force majeur. To make the argument by exaggeration, you can study north sea crude charts until the cows come home, but all bets are off if a 10 mile long meteor strikes.

    I do not see the trend line intact, is definitely broken and fairly dramatically....but its all meaningless when tomorrows news could sideswipe everything again.....no one knows how or when this will and what economic conditions will follow.

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    TA does not predict the future.
    It describes the past.

    Brent crude very neatly followed behavior which had been established over a 15 year period.
    I don’t need to worry about meteors and how price will respond to them.
    I simply note what has happened and check to see if it is continuing.
    I said to Pete years ago.
    It’s not fortune telling, just simple observation.

    It takes about 15 seconds to enter a trade.
    It takes about 15 second to leave that trade.
    Much of market performance is not being right or wrong in any absolute sense.
    It’s just paying attention and getting out if wrong.
    Or I should say being able to get out if wrong.

    The very first thing to learn is to accept error.
    There are many many who will loose an entire account before they learn that.
    There are quite a few who can never learn this.

    I find it interesting that you cannot see a plainly visible trend line.
    It is in fact intact.
    You are once removed from the current market- you are saying something does not exist because it shouldn’t.
    “Fundamentals don’t support current value “
    Or something along those lines.
    You may be correct but your position is more extreme than mine- I am observing price as it is.
    You are calling the market wrong and predicting the future.

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    Suggested for Mcgyver and TR (Ray Dalio, who thinks we're headed in a depression and a newer world order). Little slow to begin, and pretty sure I don't buy it all, but lots mind-changing ideas to think about:

    Ray Dalio: What coronavirus means for the global economy | TED Talk

    Dalio believes we're headed for a depression, one similar to the Great Depression. He makes Mcgyver's point that things are so different now that the past doesn't give much of a clue to what's next - also making a point about two kinds of AI various funds use to try to get a leg up on markets.





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    What all of the talking heads on business channels are doing is.. promoting fear.

    What TrBoat is describing, is to trade. There is where the problems begin to mount, traders of stocks never make money in the long run. They are always forced to repurchase at a higher level.

    If you had just purchased a BlueChip company's shares in the last 100 years (and collected dividends), and have not sold them. you are most likely in the top 10% of the wealthiest person in the world.


    I will admit, this kind of thinking is not for the "working class"

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Ray Dalio: What coronavirus means for the global economy | TED Talk
    Video doesn't work. Probaly because I have all that tracking and advertising crap blocked. Pretending to be all about knowledge and education but in reality ... for a fee, I'd let them lick my balls.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Video doesn't work. Probaly because I have all that tracking and advertising crap blocked. Pretending to be all about knowledge and education but in reality ... for a fee, I'd let them lick my balls.
    God night Emanuel,


    I hope you get your balls in order.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Video doesn't work. Probaly because I have all that tracking and advertising crap blocked. Pretending to be all about knowledge and education but in reality ... for a fee, I'd let them lick my balls.

    Worried they're going to track you all the way back to China? Or through the evil powers of advertising convince you to buy the Amazing-Ball-Lickomatic for just three installments of $9.99 plus shipping and handling?

    Probably made in China, anyhow. Cheaper on Alibaba.

    One point Dalio made, sort of an interesting perspective, is that there are four main things that (historically) have driven economies:

    1) The gradual increase of knowledge-based productivity over time. He doesn't talk about our periodic resets or how so much of that knowledge had to get hooked up to cheap energy.

    2) Short term debt cycles - recessions every 8-10 years. Doesn't really explain why he thinks that keeps happening - maybe in his LinkedIn stuff.

    3) Long term debt cycles every 50-75 years after some major stress test. Last one the Great Depression. He thinks we're headed into another one of that scale. He figures we'll print money like crazy and it will be OK for those within the ring of privelege. Not so good for those outside, either within a country or elsewhere in the world. I'm sure he's right about printing money; not convinced we'll take that big a hit from just this.

    4) Political cycles - how we deal with such things as distribution of wealth, trust, shared or not shared prosperity. Robber barons, Hitler, the American Dream after WWII - big changes like that. Sometimes bloody (e.g. world wars), sometimes peaceful (e.g. kinder and gentler Rockefellers after WWII?).

    He also points out a sort of middle path between giving all these printed dollars to the already wealthy or to the idle poor. Thinks we ought to be investing in ways (education etc.) that make average people productive both as part of the economy and in terms of self respect. Keeps repeating he's an unabashed capitalist and thinks we can grow the pie. But also thinks we need a few changes to more fairly share it.

    One of my own takeaways is that it's going to matter a whole lot who's giving away the next $8 trillion or so of Monopoly money.

    One answer would be the Kushers, McConnels,and Trumps of the world. Or maybe the people buying their favor - the too-big-to-fail lobbyists who've already crafted most of the initial $2 trillion spend.

    Another question he asks is if we're happy with what the current economic division is giving us? When I look at how the composition of the Dow has changed -- I'm personally not happy to see all that effort going into pumping up the stock prices of six companies profting from our 2x healthcare spend, financial ops like Morgan Stanly running more of the show. or, say, a Walmart as one of the world's most profitable companies simply by helping move manufacturing from the US to the cheapest places it can find overseas. Fine for them to be in business; but not sure that bumping up their stock price and the rest of the DJIA 30 is my top priority.

    Today, I was reminded that on the day of 9-11 when the World Trade Center fell, Trump;s comment was that he "used to have" the second tallest building in NYC. Apparently loving the notion that after the WTC fell his was the greatest. Turns out, of course, that he didn't even quite own the second tallest building. Question in my mind is if we really want a narcissist and sociopath deciding where the Monopoly money goes if Dalio is right.

    Trump had an unusual reaction to 9/11 just hours after the attacks - Business Insider

    The flip side would be someone like an AOC maybe (?) who might just want to give away money. Bernie will surely want more affordable college education and better healthcare and some sensible version of that might be . . . well, sensible?

    Trick, according to Dalio, will be making our nation more smarter, more productive, with actually productive infrastructure and the like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Suggested for Mcgyver and TR (Ray Dalio, who thinks we're headed in a depression and a newer world order). Little slow to begin, and pretty sure I don't buy it all, but lots mind-changing ideas to think about:

    Ray Dalio: What coronavirus means for the global economy | TED Talk

    Dalio believes we're headed for a depression, one similar to the Great Depression. He makes Mcgyver's point that things are so different now that the past doesn't give much of a clue to what's next - also making a point about two kinds of AI various funds use to try to get a leg up on markets.




    Sure, I said as much re- new market quite a ways back in response to Janolic.

    But- chart work in ints purest form is not fundamental analysis.
    It is simply stating price progression to date.
    Now as you might appreciate I have produced and continue to produce lots of charts.
    I can present the market in bear or bull thesis studies used to try to understand that price and present an ideal of price regression or advance.

    Right now though I find the chart I posted above of most use.
    It indicates a long term price trajectory in balance.
    We can simply enlighten switch to a shorter term trend to inform trade should it be warranted.


    Otrlt again congratulations on your enthusiasm but a couple of corrections.

    1) Most market participants don’t have 100 years to work with so I’m not sure about that point.
    I advised my sister to sell in 2008 and she told me she couldn’t due to tax issues.
    She held a 75% loss through the dip.
    Did she recover yes she did but could have been MUCH better positioned if she had simply deleveraged her exposure for that year.
    I followed my own advice and went to cash a year ago as I thought the market overpriced.
    I am casually buying now but still conservatively limiting exposure till market direction is clear.
    A person like myself has to try to protect the little bit of money I have.
    I need the money and can’t afford to have it swept away by volatility.
    I need that money right now- I’m not working, my health care is costing me a fortune I have to be very careful.

    2) “ What TrBoat is describing, is to trade. There is where the problems begin to mount, traders of stocks never make money in the long run. They are always forced to repurchase at a higher level.”

    You simply don’t know what you are talking about.
    I have been actively following and “trading” the oil sector stocks for years.
    I bought SDRL twice in the last two years.
    The first time was a small watch position at $22 due to a general failure in the whole sector.
    I just bought a real position at forty cents.
    That position cost so little money that I could lose it all and not be damaged.
    Buy and hold with no understanding of long term trajectory is simply a distribution of exposure advice.
    Buy the index and hold it- forever.
    Good luck with that if you should need the money during a downturn.
    Good luck with that if your exposure is not so carefully balanced as to limit the damage from a individual position or an entire sector to be be under long term pressure.

    I get your advice but it is not for everyone.
    Most are wise to have defensive positions in the markets.
    If they can’t manage them pay someone to do so or take the simple advice universally given which is to diminish exposure as the need for funds nears.

    You are offering the dumb bull threat so common on stock forums-
    “Buy now or you will have pay more”
    It companion is “sell now before you lose everything”

    Both are fundamentally fear trades.
    You are are advising people to act or they will suffer loss.
    You are advising people to be afraid of their actions in the markets.
    I think this is the worse possible kind of advice about markets.
    Anyone with any experience dismisses such voices as worthless noise.
    I see it as worse than that.
    You are telling people to trade based on fear.
    Fear is dangerous in any circumstance it’s especially dangerous in markets.

    Maybe I did exactly the same thing.
    I can tell you stories which would make you sick craw about market moves but my fundamental position is to understand the change possible in markets and first defend yourself from them and second take advantage of that change.

    You do realize you have been telling people to “buy now before it’s too late” for two months now don’t you?
    That’s generally where a person one takes pause before they give more wrong advise or people stop listening to them.

    Look it’s the middle of the damn night and I can’t sleep.
    I’ll erase everything in the morning.
    Thanks meds..

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    As I posted a week or so ago, there will be a earnings surprise by a bluechip industrial, my guess it's Honeywell, but Ratheion (RTX) is showing lot's of upward volume. Whichever the company that makes this happen... we're going to new highs...

    In a hurry.
    Loh and behold another dose of bollox.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    What all of the talking heads on business channels are doing is.. promoting fear.

    What TrBoat is describing, is to trade. There is where the problems begin to mount, traders of stocks never make money in the long run. They are always forced to repurchase at a higher level.

    If you had just purchased a BlueChip company's shares in the last 100 years (and collected dividends), and have not sold them. you are most likely in the top 10% of the wealthiest person in the world.


    I will admit, this kind of thinking is not for the "working class"

    Yea verily, not only do he spouteth bollox, he spouteth elitist bollox

    Therefore he spouteth DOUBLE BOLLOX

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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    "top notch American beer"

    ROFLMAO.

    PDW
    Lol. Although I know

    There is actually good beer here. Craft beer is what they are called. You fellows still make yourselves right at home (drinking American beer) when you visit.

    If you are homesick we can always find you some Fosters.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    You can't have it both ways. Either they are law abiding or they were convicted of a crime. Those are typically felonies BTW.
    I agree one can not have their cake and eat it too.

    They have set guidelines for the felonies now to be used when someone screws up again. The misdemeanors are much more widely used today. There can be different kinds also of each type of charge. The felons usually are those likely going to State prison.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post

    Good one. He would be leading Biden if running against him. No one wants to own up to the fact that Biden is the front runner now.

    Against DJT well you should have drafted Alfred.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    yeah, but what do the tea leaves say?

    They say DJT wins over Biden. The real interesting part is that far lefties and company are relieved.

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    Quote Originally Posted by otrlt View Post
    What all of the talking heads on business channels are doing is.. promoting fear, sorry what I meant to say is that air time is being given to the perma bears right now, which is normal when theres a situation and prices decline.

    What TrBoat is describing, is to 'trade'. There is where the problems begin to mount, I would say that traders of markets never make money in the long run! But I wont because that makes about as much sense as someone coming on this forum and saying machinists cant machine material well over the long run. While its true that most tarders lose, theres always those annoying cunts in the top 10% that seem to take money out the market year on year. Despite this fact, traders are always forced to repurchase at a higher level, unless of course they have any concept of value seeking and blindly buy Dow futures at any price below my last epic Goldman call at +29000.

    I will say, If you had just purchased a BlueChip company's shares in the last 100 years (and collected dividends), and have not sold them. You are most likely in the top 10% of the wealthiest person in the world... Just messing with you guys because as always it depends on size, and a certain ignorance of inflation. Of course im aware that stocks have been amazing over the last 30 years despite the death of price discovery. Whilst I bang on about Honeywell being the money well, I am of course aware that its credit allocation that makes stocks rise like bread, with CB hands firmly in charge of the yeast levers. I am also aware of course that should oven door open on this fluffy white paradigm, my scenario gets fucked along with everyone else holding stock market related assets.


    I will admit, this kind of thinking is not for the "working class" of which I am a cut above in my own mind. Its for those special guys who dont sit at the big table, but still like think they are a bit special. In between using up their stocks of loo roll on Xvideos thats is.
    Thats some quality right there.

    You master of wrong not wrong.

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