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  1. #1621
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Worried they're going to track you all the way back to China? Or through the evil powers of advertising convince you to buy the Amazing-Ball-Lickomatic for just three installments of $9.99 plus shipping and handling?
    No, I resent being the product. It's bad enough on sites that are upfront about it, but places that pretend to be dedicated to knowledge and education, sorry. Scummy little liars, not people to admire.

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    I will admit, this kind of thinking is not for the "working class" of which I am a cut above in my own mind. Its for those special guys who dont sit at the big table, but still like think they are a bit special. In between using up their stocks of loo roll on Xvideos thats is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Demon73 View Post
    Thats some quality right there.

    You master of wrong not wrong.
    Something tells me you're enjoying this farrrrr tooooo much...

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  4. #1623
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Suggested for Mcgyver and TR (Ray Dalio, who thinks we're headed in a depression and a newer world order). Little slow to begin, and pretty sure I don't buy it all, but lots mind-changing ideas to think about:

    Ray Dalio: What coronavirus means for the global economy | TED Talk

    Dalio believes we're headed for a depression, one similar to the Great Depression. He makes Mcgyver's point that things are so different now that the past doesn't give much of a clue to what's next - also making a point about two kinds of AI various funds use to try to get a leg up on markets.




    Pete I will provide a caution.

    Beware of punditry.

    I know it’s appealing to a person such as yourself to have an informed commentary on a subject provided by an author with a long list of qualifications.

    Simply resist the temptation to think you are getting good answers due to the sources being qualified.

    I listened to a few of these voices in 2009-2009.
    “The economy was structurally changed in such a manner that recovery under 7% unemployment was rendered impossible for decades if ever obtainable.”
    Deep lecture series from serious men with charts etc.
    It’s a trap- avoid it.

    I’m lucky.
    I’m lazy as fuck.
    I can’t bare trying to pay attention long enough to be persuaded by learned arguments.
    I simply stop listening or don’t even try let alone study the results and test the assumptions/assessments.

    Since I am talking about the Dow I will continue to do so.
    The Basics.

    There was this guy:

    Charles Dow - Wikipedia

    One of the key aspects of dow theory is that disclosure is at all times reflected in value.

    In other words I never feel I have to turn over lots of rocks in search of habitués pouring over arcane texts to call market moves.
    I simply look at the market.

    One of my basic rules is stolen from Charles Dow-
    The market knows more than I do.

    I take that further-
    The market knows more than any single observer.
    It makes my process very simple.
    I am never seduced by experts.
    I don’t look for advice to save my ass in the turmoil of markets.
    I simply and only watch the market.

    It’s the important thing no?

    Opinions about markets are rampant.
    Why go to them when I can sit by the river itself and watch the water flow.


    “ He
    was taught by the river. Incessantly, he learned from it. Most of all,
    he learned from it to listen, to pay close attention with a quiet heart,
    with a waiting, opened soul, without passion, without a wish, without
    judgement, without an opinion.”
    -Hermann Hesse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    Yea verily, not only do he spouteth bollox, he spouteth elitist bollox

    Therefore he spouteth DOUBLE BOLLOX
    Leave it out Sami,he told you that it's not for you, you worthless piece of working class scum. It's for the elite and other people like him. Get back on your keypad and apologize to the main man.(No, not that main man,this one who lives Stateside).

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    Leave it out Sami,he told you that it's not for you, you worthless piece of working class scum. It's for the elite and other people like him. Get back on your keypad and apologize to the main man.(No, not that main man,this one who lives Stateside).
    camscan's back in da house!

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    Quote Originally Posted by barbter View Post
    Something tells me you're enjoying this farrrrr tooooo much...
    I do try and resist, honest!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    One of my basic rules is stolen from Charles Dow-
    The market knows more than I do.
    1) you can't win.

    2) you can't break even.

    3) you can't get out of the game.

    4) stocks are legalized gambling *unless* you have a high speed server embedded at the trading floor.
    4a) look around and try to spot the sucker at the game - if you can't, then it's you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    1) you can't win.

    2) you can't break even.

    3) you can't get out of the game.

    4) stocks are legalized gambling *unless* you have a high speed server embedded at the trading floor.
    4a) look around and try to spot the sucker at the game - if you can't, then it's you.
    Yes I hear that voice often.


    Take a look at any of the oil patch stocks and ask yourself why you were not building a position last week.
    The trade required no micro fast server in the basement of the exchange.
    It simply took watching the stocks and buying- there was ample time- stocks stayed on bottom for days.
    I had a very accurate ideal of where the bottom was for a Brent crude and I have had that for months and was correct.
    Were you watching crude oil price and making such informed decisions.
    Were you actively watching the sector stocks for a opportunity?
    Are you watching them now?
    Are you actively thinking about the supply demand balance, the companies carried debt and which sector plays might be safe to buy and acting on that information.

    I have controlled position sizes and can also simply leave the positions if price doesn’t hold.
    I posted in real time that I was entering the trade so I’m not just showing past moves to make a good impression.

    I hear all the reasons why markets are now impossible or always have been.
    It’s always monsters lurking about.
    Short sellers, high frequency traders, insider traders, manipulation and sundry bad actors stealing from others.

    This is where I absolutely agree with Otrlt.
    There is no bogeyman hiding in the markets to steal your money.
    It’s just you and your decisions.
    Buy or sell a stock.
    If you are right you gain money in your account.
    If you are wrong you lose some.

    I find it absolutely remarkable that people can’t place such simple responsibility on their own actions.
    That is the single greatest reason why so few can succeed in the markets.
    They cannot place responsibility where it ONLY belongs- on their choices.
    Having failed to do so they have no chance of correcting those actions as is needed.

    I can make or lose money like any other but I am dead certain that the outcomes are a result of my own actions.

    People need to grow up.
    Take responsibility and place blame and credit where it only exists- on themselves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    Leave it out Sami,he told you that it's not for you, you worthless piece of working class scum. It's for the elite and other people like him. Get back on your keypad and apologize to the main man.(No, not that main man,this one who lives Stateside).

    Now that's what I call a proper compliment

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    Quote Originally Posted by Limy Sami View Post
    Now that's what I call a proper compliment
    Sorry dad, supposed to be an insult.

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    Quote Originally Posted by camscan View Post
    Sorry dad, supposed to be an insult.
    That's stopped you farting in church, hasn't it sunshine.

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    As I've said many times, if you want to make money on stocks, get your ass back to school and get job in the financial sector as an intermediary - broker dealer, fund manager, IB, etc. Next best advice is is buy your stock wholesale (start and grow a business). The last is be an investor, buy and hold and be cognizant of how the mix should change as you age. The rest is putz work imo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    Good one. He would be leading Biden if running against him. No one wants to own up to the fact that Biden is the front runner now.

    Against DJT well you should have drafted Alfred.

    While we're throwing stones, TT, I wonder how you think you, Joe Biden, and Alfred E. Neumann would compare as leaders?

    Biden likely isn't a genius, but also likely well above average. Class president in high school. Not a gifted student, but did earn both undergrad and Law degrees. PhD wife apparently happy to be with him. Managed to overcome stuttering; which is a sign of motivation -- and note his classmates till had a stuttering kid as their class president. Pulled a huge upset in his first Senate run. Proved so effective the people of Delaware kept returning him. Earned the respect of his own peers, worked across the aisles. Demolished Sarah Palin in the debates (OK, not all that much of an achievement). Comparing Biden/Obama to Pence/Trump on something like Ebola/CoViD??

    So how about your own mental and educational qualifications compared to both Biden and Alfred E. Neuman? What have you lead? Where have you overcome adversity while successfully leading a dozens, hundreds, thousands, millions?

    I figure you can run a lathe (from SpinIt to TrueTurning), so that's likely to put you at least an average dude. Beyond that? Foreman at work? Own your own hugely successful shop you built from scratch? Or, just throw stones?

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    “ from SpinIt to TrueTurning”

    Thanks for the heads up.
    I wasn’t paying attention.
    Why don’t folk just keep their login name.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Pete I will provide a caution.

    Beware of punditry. .. .
    Have to agree with you, TR. As I said, I don't buy all that Ray Dalio was saying. And beside his four main points I listed some of my own questions or points of disagreement.

    To me, every prediction has probability bars on it -- and I try to update them as new information comes in. There's what I think most likely; but also real chances at either end of the distribution curve. Even long tails and "black swans."

    What the Dalio TED talk did for me was push out my thinking on the worst case scenario a bit. Before that I thought the worst (and not likely) case was a repeat of the Spanish Flu. Dalia is seeing that AND the Great Depression again. I still don't think that likely, but I'm a bit more mindful it's one of the possibilities.

    Meanwhile, no one has taken me up on my bet that the Dow will settle around 25,000 (+/- 25,000) after we've mostly contained this virus.

    FWIW, I was equally disappointed no one would take me up on my bet that the Tigers would win the 2020 NCAA National Collegiate Football Championship. I was almost sure on that one. Had CoViD struck earlier, could have lost that one.

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    missed that...so TT is Spinit?

    I liked your post, but being the devils advocate, we should be more critical of politicians whether or not the possess stronger attributes than our own. Sadly, in my country, I actually do have far better credentials than our national idiot .....from experience to education to leadership and to succeeding in the face of adversity. Not a exactly a big boast, many do, when the comparison is a small brained ski instructor/substitute drama teacher drop out born gagging on a big silver spoon. At least you guys have candidates who you can say are better than you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    missed that...so TT is Spinit?
    Depends who you ask. I think so. Or a close relative.

    The writing style and content are both similar.

    However, as I recall, Spinit was in Texas, and I can't see him going so far as to make up a new state, and TT has mentioned Florida things several times.

    So either Spinit retired and moved to Florida, or he has a long lost brother here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    missed that...so TT is Spinit?

    I liked your post, but being the devils advocate, we should be more critical of politicians whether or not the possess stronger attributes than our own. . . .
    I agree with you and should have been clearer. My concern or complaint is that our criticisms should be based on evidence, rather than random character assassination.

    If SpinIt (?) had said, "I think Biden is slow because he pauses a lot when he's speaking" that's fair game. I might say, the other possibility is that he is doing what most past stutterers do. Still, could be he's slowing down some - Democrats better have an able VP candidate just in case.

    Might even then point out that his likely opponent, Trump, only seems to speak in complete and coherent sentences when he puts on his "President" voice and reads from a teleprompter. The "genuine" guy can't seem to plan more than a few words in a row. Here's the off the cuff Trump as an illustration:

    Look, having nuclear – my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at M.I.T.; good genes, very good genes, O.K., very smart, the Wharton School of finance, very good, very smart – you know, if you're a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, O.K., if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world – it’s true! – but when you're a conservative Republican they try – oh, they do a number – that’s why I always start off: "Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune” – you know I have to give my life credentials all the time, because we're a little disadvantaged – but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me …

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    As I've said many times, if you want to make money on stocks, get your ass back to school and get job in the financial sector as an intermediary - broker dealer, fund manager, IB, etc. Next best advice is is buy your stock wholesale (start and grow a business). The last is be an investor, buy and hold and be cognizant of how the mix should change as you age. The rest is putz work imo.
    It' too late for you Mcgyver, and the many middle aged people out there.
    Purchasing stocks is preferably done early in life. The compounding of dividends reinvested alone will make you a millionaire quickly. There is no trading required, you simply buy and hold quality companies.

    One good example; anyone who purchased CocaCola (KO) in the early 80's and never sold... their children will never worry about money in their lifetime.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    1) you can't win.

    2) you can't break even.

    3) you can't get out of the game.

    4) stocks are legalized gambling *unless* you have a high speed server embedded at the trading floor.
    4a) look around and try to spot the sucker at the game - if you can't, then it's you.
    Do you approach trading the same way as lathe leveling
    1) Buy 8 sell 10 = win
    2) Buy 8 goes 5 sell 8 = BE
    3) Turn off screen!??...... Seriously wtf kind stupid statement is that!? You can retire like anyone else.
    4) Of course its gambling, just like going to work in the shop and hoping to come home with both your arms. Youd be surprised
    at how basic most of the HF stuff is, you need to be whole more than first these days Jim.
    4a) Plenty of 'suckers' on the financial forums but I wouldnt call them suckers, id applaud them for actually giving it a go.
    Pretty good at spotting bellends tho.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    As I've said many times, if you want to make money on stocks, get your ass back to school and get job in the financial sector as an intermediary - broker dealer, fund manager, IB, etc. Next best advice is is buy your stock wholesale (start and grow a business). The last is be an investor, buy and hold and be cognizant of how the mix should change as you age. The rest is putz work imo.
    How did you come to that opinion Mac?


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