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Thread: Recession?

  1. #1781
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    Who's to say but it seems a bit premature to be racing off of support lines just now...

    Brent futures contract:


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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    He can fool some of the people some of the time and obviously you all of the time

    He's a really good conman and knows what to say and who to say it to.
    Being a good conman doesn't make you a moron.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

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    And the eternal question.
    WHEN do we short gold.
    We can't let the idiot gold bugs run the place eh.

    I put true value on bullion at 4-600 dollars.
    We are way up in Lala land here...


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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    I've been wanting a modest skiff for a couple of years now.
    So it's morning where you are ... get out there. Haul that sumbitch out and see what it needs.

    Nothing like a comfy chair, a peanut butter sandwich, quart of ginger beer from the dollar store, a bag of ginger snaps and some company ...

    beggars.jpg

    or a relaxing view ...

    beach.jpg

    followed by a little skyshow before bed ...

    nightnight.jpg

    What good was working all those years if you never kick back and enjoy the world ? Who cares what the Dow does when you got trees, flowers and chirping birds ? Also whales, dolphins, crabs, shrimp, bears, eagles and rapids to run ? what else can you ask for ?

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    What's with these teak decks.
    Have you lowered yourself to a trawler yacht?
    I had taken you for a mans man- what happened to the tug?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Repeat after me- this is a test, this is a test.
    Brent crude is not particularly impressed this morning by the deal to curb production.
    The Dow contract is rolling over a bit and support near.
    I'm still watching for this outcome:

    I have a theory on why some personalities can make money in the markets and others don't.

    This morning we have some only viewing the world through a lens of despair and view the political leader as a moron.

    The other group is talking about sailboats and preferred hull designs and the potential of market opportunities, a lens of optimism.

    Stark contrast in attitude and apparent satisfaction level of life.

    As for the chart, I think all of the bad news is in. We are getting primed for an up move again once we start opening the economy up.

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    "As for the chart, I think all of the bad news is in. We are getting primed for an up move again once we start opening the economy up."

    That is essentially what current price is saying- not only that the news is in but it didn't do enough damage to set down the index into a true down cycle.
    As I like to say- 'we know where to watch'
    I am watching and building well defended longs in the case that we hold.
    If not it is not may style to short much here- should price fail I just will wait for the next level down for a new try at reversals.
    I call market inefficiencies when I see them but my primary advice is to take the trade as is actually occurring.
    Bull holding- by all means participate till indications suggest differently.
    Just now as the test is so clear I believe there is time enough to await outcomes..

  9. #1788
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    That’s a telling juxtaposition.
    That long trend chart is still the game to watch IMO.
    Lots are calling last week a bear market rally.
    Let’s see.


    Here's a long term view of GDP per capita since 1900. It's an even longer perspective, Thomas, not so much on the Dow but the economy. Otrit might like it because it shows is buy-and-hold-no-matter-what philosophy was pretty good advice from about 1945 to 2000.

    Five things to note. First, how well GDP per capita recovered (in the long view) during the years of the Spanish Flu. What seemed economic disasters back then didn't even do as much damage as the Great Recession in 2008.

    Second, how deep the carnage was from the Great Depression (few are alive who lived through it) and how output grew off borrowed money in WWII. A further note on the Depression, the average American lost maybe 5% of GDP per capita. Anyone should be able to live through that, right? The problem is that there were few average Americans. It's the 25% unemployed, thrown out of their jobs, that stood in food lines and saw their families and lives torn apart.

    Third, how the economy grew more or less continously though most of our lives, despite the warning shots of a boom and bust around every then years. One can see where someone like Otrit gets their unbridled optimism.

    Fourth, the entirely new trend line we've been on since the Great Recession. We're back to growth, but along a lower growth line. The reasons the economy was setting new records are basically (a) more people and (b) still some growth (the line isn't flat or declining). However, we got there by borrowing about as much money as in WWII.

    Compare the huge bump in GDP we got from debt in WWII to the slightly rising line since we 2008. Same borrowing. Less GDP per capita to show for it. And, very different circumstances. In WWII we were building planes and tanks to let relative democracies triumph over fascism. Recently we've been mostly pumping up the fortunes of too-big-to-fail financial concerns and hoping some of that trickles down. Turns out it hasn't bought us anything enduring.

    Fifth, the chart doesn't show the fairly significant drop in the economy from the coronavirus, made worse by our mishandling of it. Taking that as old news, the question is, what are the trillions being added to debt going to do in terms of returning us to growth?

    Personally, I don't see us getting back on the old steeper trend line - more like the post 2008 one. And if we give those trillions to non-productive segments of the economy even worse. And here, I think the Republican and Democrat parties have it seriously wrong. Republicans seem bent on handing out money to big donors and maybe Dow companies. Best we get from that is more financial firms joining the likes of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs at the top of the Dow, even larger healthcare companies robbing patients 2x the rest of the world, Walmart finding a way to bring still more crap from cheap labor countries, Big Oil and the Saudi's and Russia given another ten year run at the top, defense with bigger and better nukes. Boeing given a GM-style bailout after its own mismanagement (and most components besides the airframe built overseas) and so on.

    Democrats seem bent on giving everyone a tiny share of the money. Both parties are OK with bits for small business to stay open but don't really know how to do it. In any case, handing out freshly printed money is more likely to be pure stimulus rather than an actual investment. Rather see these folks get it, though, than the financial firms in 2008. But by 2028 one wonders if we will have made in any during investments? More housing for the young? World's longest longevity and most cost-efficient healthcare? Our kids back among the top ten in PISA education ranks? The US dominant in the manufacturing industries of the future? Dictators like Putin, Kim, MBS, and the Ayatollah on the retreat?

    Seems to me we're at an inflection point in our history. We ought to be paying attention.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails longtermgdp.jpg  

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    Pete I review the GDP growth charts nationally and international.
    I don't always know what to do with them- the chartist in me is drawn to the exponent's in action as an opportunity for reversal but I am quite honestly out of my depth for the gradual transitions of technological advancement seeing a broader expression in the worlds peoples as a valid substance for that growth.

    I will pull up some charts again this morning and ponder the question again.
    One note on growth without pause- we had a twenty years bear market starting in 60's
    "Recession" as per this threads topic is not equities but there have been substantive pauses in markets over the last 100 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by as9100d View Post
    Being a good conman doesn't make you a moron.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
    Yes it does. No, not DT.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    What's with these teak decks.
    Red cedar left untreated, turns that color naturally ...

    16tons.jpg

    This morning we have some only viewing the world through a lens of despair and view the political leader as a moron.

    The other group is talking about sailboats and preferred hull designs and the potential of market opportunities, a lens of optimism.
    You forgot the group that thinks Trump (and the rest, didn't mean to shortchange any politicians) is a venal jerk, but still like boats and the water and fast cars ... or at least pretty ones, and other good stuff

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    Ah- correct gal as can be.
    I give you a pass till such time as you start talking about the value of plastic wine glasses...

    Subdeck is plate or framed timber or?
    Hull ?

    Age?

    I don't see a lock for the sculling oar.
    Are you daft?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    I give you a pass till such time as you start talking about the value of plastic wine glasses...
    chugalug chugalug, makes ya wanna holler hi-dee-ho, makes her toes curl dontcha know, chugalug chugalug ...

    Subdeck is plate or framed timber or?
    Subdeck ? what's that ? 1 1/2" cedar on 3 x 6 cross beams (those have a real name, sorry.) Doesn't leak, either. Have had a good 6" awash, headwinds and 6' swells bashing up Johnstone, entertaining, like a little submarine. Hull is 2" planking, frames about 3 x 4 on 8" centers, four or five 4x6 stringers running full-length. 600 gallons of fuel and 150 of water ... can stay out a day or two

    Most of it's under the water tho, she's a real tug, not a toy. 1937. One difference I notice is, you know how in a normal boat you think "watch out for that pier ! don't touch that piling, it'll scratch the paint !"

    In a tug you start thinking, "Hey, looky there ! Something I can push !" After a while you get kind of a chip on your shoulder

    launching.jpg

    I don't see a lock for the sculling oar.
    4 bladed, 34" diameter, less effort .... since there's NO electronics on the engine (and barely any on the boat), it's reliable.

    sculling_oar.jpg

    Are you daft?
    There have been rumours ...

    Unfortunately, at this moment I am retired from tugging and back to the less interesting world. For a while, at any rate But you can do it, TR. Just say g'bye to the rats, exit, stage left from the race and enjoy the world. Let otrit worry about American Industry, he's got it under control

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    Quote Originally Posted by as9100d View Post
    If he's a moron....how the hell did he become president? Clearly smarter than you give credit.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
    Guess I can blame you, now can't I?

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    Quote Originally Posted by as9100d View Post
    Being a good conman doesn't make you a moron.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
    Because he conned you does not make him a good con man

    You do not know a good con man is a con man

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    Because he conned you does not make him a good con man

    You do not know a good con man is a con man
    He is no different than any of us here business wise, well unless you're a pushover with no spine.

    FYI I didn't vote for him but I support him just like I support every president regardless of the dumbass shit they do....obama was the worst.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by as9100d View Post
    He is no different than any of us here business wise, well unless you're a pushover with no spine.

    FYI I didn't vote for him but I support him just like I support every president regardless of the dumbass shit they do....obama was the worst.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
    No, he is a crook, always been a crook. If yo do business like him then you are human garbage like him. Do you also have a rich daddy to bail you out, legally and illegally, and leave you 40+ million ?

    I thought not


    No, you are a trumpista loud and clear, don't try to get off the hook now

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    On topic, I don't think anyone could have foreseen this coming when the thread was started.


    The expansion was due to end, but not quite like this

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    Hilarious that folks take the $40 million deal and run with it. If someone gave you the same you wouldn't have been able to grow it into his current networth.



    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by as9100d View Post
    He is no different than any of us here business wise, well unless you're a pushover with no spine.

    FYI I didn't vote for him but I support him just like I support every president regardless of the dumbass shit they do....obama was the worst.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    No, he is a crook, always been a crook. If yo do business like him then you are human garbage like him. Do you also have a rich daddy to bail you out, legally and illegally, and leave you 40+ million ?

    I thought not


    No, you are a trumpista loud and clear, don't try to get off the hook now
    Hey guys why dont you take it to the new place and spare the thread.


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