Scary, Very scary report!

Hi to everyone! hope you are all well.
I don't post on here very often, too busy trying to earn a crust! but I thought that this report I read may be off some interest to you all. If the reports conclusions are true than that's it, game over! The company is Tullet Prebon, a well respected broker based in London.
Electronic Broking, Commodity Brokers, Wholesale Brokers, Inter Dealer Broker, Eastern Interconnect
On home page is a report, "Perfect Storm", free download in PDF format, its 84 pages and some of its content is very scary, you will all appreciate the thoughts of the authors on "globalisation" and "outsourcing"!
Please read and post your comments, I, for one am very concerned by the conclusion.
Best Regards,
Croz.
Cymru am byth

People have been predicting the downfall of civilization since the beginning of time...

There is money to be made out of doom and gloom and there is money to be made out of talking everything up...

Most people here are much older then me but in my short time the world was to have ended many times, we were going to run out of oil in the 1990's, we were going to run out of food in the 1990's.

The depletion of the ozone layer was going to fry us all, and we were going to cook with the greenhouse effect...

We should all be dead many times over yet amazingly it has not yet happened..

RC99 said:

People have been predicting the downfall of civilization since the beginning of time...

There is money to be made out of doom and gloom and there is money to be made out of talking everything up...

Most people here are much older then me but in my short time the world was to have ended many times, we were going to run out of oil in the 1990's, we were going to run out of food in the 1990's.

The depletion of the ozone layer was going to fry us all, and we were going to cook with the greenhouse effect...

We should all be dead many times over yet amazingly it has not yet happened..

Click to expand...

But sometimes they're right and this time it's looking pretty real.

Why Government Spending Is Not Out of Control

Milacron said:

Why Government Spending Is Not Out of Control

Click to expand...

Exactly. That was Macroeconomics 101, back in 1974.

I'm not sure where Mr. Bartlett got his box of crayons, but he is far, far out on the limb of Keynesian economic theory. My recommendation would be to hide and watch what happens. Regards, Clark

Every year during the past 4 years was supposed to be the "perfect storm". All that happened was a lot of people made money marketing gold as the only protection. In the mean time, the equity market performed beautifully, and the ones who ignored all the static prospered. Wish I had more confidence in the market then so I would have invested more. Oh well.

Oh yea, in case anyone was wondering, the world did not end either...

US Gov spending. So they take in 2.6 trillion and spend 3.8 trillion in 2012 and if thats ok, then is it ok if they spend 5 trillion in 2013 and 6 trillion in 2014.... etc etc ?

Sea Farmer said:

Exactly. That was Macroeconomics 101, back in 1974.

Click to expand...

Yankee ingenuity to the rescue! By simply burying an AR 15 or two and several cases of ammo in the yard we Americans sleep better & fear nothing. (bubba's 'global perspective'...)

Global warming is a reality too, but while mankind exacerbates it we can't reverse a geologic trend simply by tech-ing new products beyond affordability. Threats of global catastrophe are too often tools to scare citizens into line with someones populist agenda. (can you say Soros?) The media is not on our side in this one.

In 60+ yrs I've survived 'the end of civilization as we know it' a handful of times already, learned to $ave in case money is still worth something after the apocalypse. If not, I can burn it for warmth while guarding the rest of my ammo. Gotta take it day by day so if 'tomorrow never comes' we'll have had 'fun while it lasted'. (I bow to jeers & groans...)

Several of the "pre-conditions" to the end . . . i.e. dwindling supply of Natural Gas and "Peak Oil" - don't square with the facts present today.

While a lot of what is in this report is valid - the tipping point related to the energy balance isn't yet anywhere near the levels purported in this report.

The authors of this report make money by advising people how to invest. The more fear, uncertainty and doubt they can rile up, the more apt they are to gain clients and make more money.

If you want a report on economic viability / "end game" scenarios - it is hard to find any report from an investment adviser slant that doesn't try to motivate you to send money to them to invest for you. This report is just way too slick with all the photos of collapsed civilizations, etc.

Analysts with a non-vested interest in investing are far better at reporting stuff like this. Stratfor is the one that pops up most often in the reports that our 401k adviser uses. Economics-and-finance | Stratfor <- this website is by far one of the best sites for news / analysis without all the stupid "sound bites" and right / left BS political slant. (of course - it costs money to read the better articles . . . but at least you aren't getting it for "free" from someone trying to scare you)

John Welden said:

But sometimes they're right

Click to expand...

When was that?

Raul McCai said:

When was that?

Click to expand...

Well, for the most part the Mayans/Incans/Olmec's were right about their world ending, but not so much on the timeline and to be fair, it was mostly the Spanish's fault.

We will never run out of money, hell we print 80 billion a month, spend too much?, just print some more! Like the low interest rates? That's from printing money....Ben just buys the rate down. Banks pay you 1% on your savings......So everyone buys stocks, stock market is way up. All from printing more money. Price of gas is high, Arabs price oil in dollars that are not worth the paper they are printed on, so the price of oil goes ever higher! The only thing that makes dead presidents worth anything is that all oil the world over is priced in dollars. See what a dollar will buy you after the Arabs stop pricing oil in dollars......might just be worth about half of what its worth now....If we are lucky.

From my observations, throughout all of history, all efforts to predict the end of the world were a failure. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Investors, like gun owners, are a jumpy bunch. It doesn't take much to get them worked up and preparing for the end of civilization.

In the midst of several high profile mass shootings during his first presidential term, Obama did nothing regarding gun control. This didn't stop the NRA from scaring their members into thinking democrats are going to take their guns away. It worked. The NRA used the deaths of many children late last year to create hysteria regarding black helicopters coming to take your guns away. Record breaking gun sales followed.

Investors are really no different. There is a mob mentality among the bulk of investors. They behave in masses following trends. Nobody can predict the future. Information can be interpreted to provide a gut feeling about what is going to happen. Nobody knows for sure. People are constantly predicting doom. When it does happen, there are some that like to tout their brilliant insight. Was it luck, was it experience. Are they capable of predicting the next downfall? We never really hear about the countless others that predicted doom, only to have the opposite happen.

The markets are up, housing is up, unemployment is down, and yet we have a democratic president. According to some, this just shouldn't be. If Romney was in office, I'm sure he would have no problem taking credit for these numbers. Personally I hate the bickering in Washington regarding who's sh*t stinks less. They all stink.

These types of extreme articles are designed to get your attention and for you to take some form of action. Hopefully drumming up business for themselves in the process.

davohouston said:

US Gov spending. So they take in 2.6 trillion and spend 3.8 trillion in 2012 and if thats ok, then is it ok if they spend 5 trillion in 2013 and 6 trillion in 2014.... etc etc ?

Click to expand...

Youll never see the real numbers because you in a not need to know position. Its like asking them to keep a tally on how much money they have printed. Who cares as long as the truth never gets out

gradstdnt_99 said:

The markets are up, housing is up, unemployment is down, and yet we have a democratic president. According to some, this just shouldn't be. If Romney was in office, I'm sure he would have no problem taking credit for these numbers. Personally I hate the bickering in Washington regarding who's sh*t stinks less. They all stink.

.

Click to expand...

Obama did take credit. He said "Are you better off now or 4 years ago". How dare that a-hole take credit for assuming the ingenuity of the American individual when he did nothing but instill fear in all the bean counters around the world. Who knows how Romney would have worked out but one thing is for sure Obama has a unfaltering naccissistic political attitude. He can do no wrong and all his assumptions are followed through even if it means he got "Bad intel" about the economy, wallstreet, military actions...ect ect ect.

In the midst of several high profile mass shootings during his first presidential term, Obama did nothing regarding gun control. This didn't stop the NRA from scaring their members into thinking democrats are going to take their guns away. It worked. The NRA used the deaths of many children late last year to create hysteria regarding black helicopters coming to take your guns away. Record breaking gun sales followed. [/QUOTE]

Bullshit..........Obummer is the best gun salesman in history.

Couldn't get into the text of the article for some reason. I have been saying this for the past 2 years we are headed down the toilet. First look at the Roman empire, they became obsessed with beauty and wealth, just like us, and face planted we are on the same path. Second there was a study done a year or so back by some preeminent anthropologists that said we are at a point where we are going to take off and go places or more likely we will crash and burn. I agree with the latter, just look at the prices of ammo. But the last battle will be fought with sticks and stones. Sad thing though we can do almost anything with technology but can't get our morals under control.

moonlight machine said:

In the midst of several high profile mass shootings during his first presidential term, Obama did nothing regarding gun control. This didn't stop the NRA from scaring their members into thinking democrats are going to take their guns away. It worked. The NRA used the deaths of many children late last year to create hysteria regarding black helicopters coming to take your guns away. Record breaking gun sales followed.

Click to expand...

Bullshit..........Obummer is the best gun salesman in history.[/QUOTE]

You would be more helpful in providing what exactly is bullshit and contribute further with something coherent. I clearly stated record breaking gun sales. I wouldn't give Obamma all the credit, but he gets the lions share. The NRA did a great job pouring gas on that fire getting gun owners whipped up in a frenzy.

During Obama's first term and after several high profile national incidents involving nutjobs killing lots of people, nothing was done with regard to gun control, NOTHING. Point to any gun ban legislation during Obama's first term. If he was hell bent on banning guns, he had plenty of high profile incidents to use as excuses to do so. Before the election, I recall hearing the NRA reading directly from their script how democrats are going to take your guns away, causing another mad dash on gun sales. It wasn't until after the election that another nutjob killed a bunch of children that "something" was forced to be done. After a bunch of children are killed, inaction from a leader is simply not an option. Something has to be done. It isn't always the right or effective thing, but something has to change simply because this is what the masses demand. For a leader to do nothing after such a tragedy, they may as well step down from their position. Since nobody in washington can agree on anything, nothing probably will get done and back to business as usual. Then it's wash, rinse, repeat on a run for guns the next time a nutjob shoots a place up and the NRA warns of another gun ban.

Currently there is no proposed law that I am aware of any that would take away a gun from a law biding citizen. I constantly see people complaining how the government is going to take their guns away. Ain't gonna happen. If it ever did, you can rest assured it would be poorly implemented and ineffective.

I agree, Clinton and Obamma have sold more guns than any republican leadership could have dreamed of. A democratic president and some suggestive hints from the NRA and you have the masses in a frenzy buying anything gun related. Nutjob shoots up a school, hint of a gun ban, and lines are forming to get into gun shows. A boom for gun manufacturers. I clearly recall the frenzy during the assault rifle ban during Clinton. One would have thought by now the black hellcopters would have taken all our guns away. Instead the law expired and business as usual. I'm not one to beleive in such nonsense, but if there is a consipiracy, it's goal is to sell more guns under the guise they will be taken away. When in doubt, just follow the money.

IAMATT said:

Obama did take credit. He said "Are you better off now or 4 years ago". How dare that a-hole take credit for assuming the ingenuity of the American individual when he did nothing but instill fear in all the bean counters around the world. Who knows how Romney would have worked out but one thing is for sure Obama has a unfaltering naccissistic political attitude. He can do no wrong and all his assumptions are followed through even if it means he got "Bad intel" about the economy, wallstreet, military actions...ect ect ect.

Click to expand...

This is how leadership works, everywhere. Take credit for the good and pass off the bad as someone elses doing. This is how you get ahead. When is the last time you saw a high profile leader say, "oops, my bad", on their own. When they screw up so bad there is no way out, then comes the apology. Otherwise there is usually a fall guy in the shadows ready to be thrown under the bus.

Why is it when gas prices go up, it's allways the presidents fault, doesn't matter what party is in power. When gas prices go down, the same people never give him any credit? I find it comical because the president has as much control over the price of a gallon of gas that he has over a loaf of bread. Doesn't stop people who prefer to not understand globally traded commodities from complaining I suppose.