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  1. #21
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    ries;
    how would you process the corn and what would happen to the processed corn? i wouldnt want to feed it to my pigs, cows or chickens and have the potentional of them glowing in the dark! and i would think it certainly wouldnt be fit for human consumption....jim
    " i'se seen the enemy, 'n the enemy is us" Pogo

    [ 12-11-2004, 05:22 PM: Message edited by: toolmakerjim ]

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    Ries,

    Don't forget the bugs that are now seeded into petroleum contaminated filling station lots, etc. to eat the petroleum products and render them harmless. Just wait till we get a good start on genetic engineering. Maybe we can train a bug to eat discarded electronics!

    Stu Miller

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    Maybe one of us will start the Walmart of machining, set up branchs of service center operation controled by a central management location, the sun will never set on all service centers that is to say they are spread around the world not just nation, prints arrive by internet at central engineering location to be delegated to a zone select service center and each part is assigned a bar code, each service center is equiped with exact same equipment and software, one central location for programing if all the machines are same and software is the same there is less or no confusion. Machine buying power would be tremdious as well as material buying power, and could demand a year over year price reductions to continue as a vendor, vendor screams we can't do that, fine we'll purchase from another countrys producer.
    How can management manage multiple employees in multiple locations,... real time video watching every aspect of operations, employees will have a "zone" or "box" that they can remain in with our calling attention to themselves that is to say the digital video image will know when they are out of position or zone. Cell phone buds stuck in employees ears, instant communication even to the lowest worker on the totem pole.
    Problems at a machine, central can view it on their screen instantly.
    At a distribution center parts will be profile cut from plate or bar stock, think water jet operation to near net size, bar coded as each individual part or group of parts are cut, then pallitized in a production line type operation. Then distributed to service center where it is postitoned for robotic loader to again read bar code on each individual part, machine tool reads bar code to confirm machine operation no touching off on a part Renshaw ball and probe for location. Faro arm for checking and reading bar code, while part is still pallitized.
    Cutter dull, it's returned to a central tool room location for new end mill / insert change out, tool holder is bar coded also, and all tooling is individually bar coded.
    Inside this operation there will be no 1/2" or 6mm Hanita endmill sticking out 1.5" from a cat 40 it'll be a 12800 46075 every location.
    Cost wise profits can be smaller per part because the cost are spread across multiple service centers, our employees cost us less as we can utilize the most basic person because no decisions are made in the actual work arena. Even heating and cooling controled by the central managing location. All service centers employees work not to exceed 32 hours per week, if the employee can listen for a beep see a light blink or feel a vibration and react they can be utilized. This will be the general store of machined parts, operation will not be handling large hard to handle parts like say dump bodys nor will it be doing nano parts like gears the size of blood platelets. Bar code and standardize the same part pallitized in Bejing can be machined in Bagdad or Boston or Brazil.

  4. #24
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    Ries, thanks for better explaining the points i was trying to make. You got it completely.

    JimK you are mistaking process for goals. If IBM used your argument, they would still be making mechanical tabulating machines.

    In the late 70's i did a lot of rough construction, and custom woodwork (what a mix!) for the owner of one of the (at the time) larger excavation companies in the DC area. He would bring equipment up to the farm and sometimes i would get to play with it, A D-8, and a larger JD hoe being the memorable pieces. Sad to say, it didn't really stick with me, probably could have become an average operator, but it just didn't much hold my interest or "grab" me.

    Now to the point of this discussion, how much less machining do you think would be involved in the model from 1975 vs the upcoming 2005 for same effective capacity and life hours? One method would be to learn the weight of the basic raw components before and after manufacturing, to see how much metal removal was involved. Then also explore how life hours of various mechanical components has gone up because of "grown" enhancements on the basic metal part: coatings, methods of process for hardness and stress relief, subtle alloy improvement or material substitution, etc, etc,. Not to mention the improved systems effects including interactions of the fluids, pumps, filters, combustion modifications, and on and on; all "grown" on the basics from the 50's and 60's specs. More work for physicists and chemists. less for machinists. I have not kept track of the machinery in a specific way, but one small example is the way cushions were still fully upholstered in the 70's models of much equipment. Today, most machinery upholstery is "grown" by moulding the variable density foam against the surface skin, and popping out a (more or less) egonomic cushion with tabs ready to mount. Small item. Big effect on cost, and on upholsterers trade.

    Net size and dimension castings are becoming more and more possible at better precision, and other processes for metal manipulation will occur. The machining will be in the tooling, or even more removed, the tooling for the tooling. From another tack, fabbed parts will replace other metal castings at an increased rate with better and cheaper forming and fusion methods.
    though most of the savings will probably be in better-faster tooling costs (Think how EDM changed the die trade) And newer materials (ceramics, e.g.) will continue to make inroads.

    But you are probably correct that 10 years may be a short term to feel the strongest effects. Another thing is how much of the basics of this change occured in the last couple decades. There will be a time of reduced change, as these capacities are more fully utilized. It's always incremental, and then we turn around and say why i remember when the only way to effectively move dirt was with steam engines, clutches and cables was the only control system, and the only way to survey was with optical theodolites and trig, now look what is upon us!

    My business is custom woodworking. I wish you were right about the tables and chairs. But in fact, a person has to be fairly wealthy, and fairly well educated in the subject, to own well made, traditionally made (whatever the style) wooden furniture. It has become a niche market and china supplies most of whats left.

    But i hope you continue to rebutt me to keep me honest. There is more here for me than an, err, "academic" interest. Part of the reason the subject grabs me is that i sit on a community educational committee that is attempting to explore many of these ideas. Perhaps most importantly, what do we do with people like ourselves who tend to learn best or prefer to act through "doing" as opposed to traditional academic track. How do we prepare them for a future that will need intense manual skills in many areas, but perhaps not in the vanishing ways that have satisfied many of us? If we maintain traditional machining as a curriculum, how should we focus and structure the vision to the new world? Many have stated it here, we're all going to have to keep up with lifelong learning. How do we do that insightfully, as opposed to merely teaching "trades" and then hoping the student can survive in the real world long enough to get good. What values and vision should we be striving to engender?

    Be sure, I don't expect short term accomplishment or to learn easy answers. I might not even be very effective. But it is important to think about, and push where you can. Writing arguments here is one way I try to test myself, and get others to smack me back with the "reality bites". It's important exercise.

    smt

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    Steven:

    In regards to your being on an education commettee, hold out for shop classes of any kind in the secondary schools.

    As we all know there are many bright and average sudents who want to express themselves through what they do.

    All shop classes teach critical thinking.

    All shop classes teach the basic principles of the trade, The basics don't change much.

    All shop classes teach social interaction.

    All shop classes are confidence builders, the reward shows in the work.

    Working with basic tools in a shop of any kind is a very human experience. Wherever the students go after they graduate from school, they will remember some of the experiences they had in shop class.

    The most important part of "Ten Years From Now" gets underway tomorrow morning when the bell rings for class.

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    in ten years from now i will be retired and hopefully, after winning the lottery, will become a gentleman farmer.
    the young ones growing up now and entering the workplace will have a tough row to hoe, no training and no money.
    the position of the good ole US of A being the premier knowledge bank of the world will be challenged by the same players as today.
    hopefully we can still lead the world in innovation and quality, thats yet to be seen.
    in the machining world i forsee Artifical Intelligence and cnc code generation to be automatic from the engineers and tool designers and there will possibly be little need for operator intervention except for cuttercomp or a slight amount of editing. even that may be taken care of by machine gaugeing and machine generated updates as was the case at Federal~Moguls Orangeburg facility with the addition of their robotic cells.
    it certainly will be an interesting time all these countries trying to establish themselves as the "kid on the block" regionally. yet still working to iso standards for compatability so they can compete in a world market...jim

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    Ten years from now?
    Stamping shops will be either large or small, probably no mid-size purely stamping shops.
    Most of the the flat blanking and punching work will be totally replaced by laser, waterjet and plasma. The tolerance holding ability of those machines gets greater and greater. Just look at the latest generation of waterjets that eliminate draft angle with a tilting nozzle or head. They removed one of the complaints people had against using that system.

    We currently stamp jobs that could easily be done by other methods. But shhhh, don't tell our customers that.
    I am finishing a job this morning that could be done just fine in a laser machine, all except for the third operation which is forming. The forming on this 1/4" A36 is actually best done on a punch press. A press brake is just not the best tool for this part, CNC or not.

    There is always going to be the need for forming and fab work. Some things will continue to be done the old way as there is just no other way to do it.

    At one time we were the source for machine cut circles and rings of any thickness, diameter or material.
    Laser, waterjet and plasma have taken most of that work away. Are we going to invest in these technologies to get the work back? Nope, we don't want to go there so we know we won't ever see that work again.

    We continue on. We lose customers and we gain customers. Will we be doing the same ten years from now?
    Frankly no.
    Do we invest sizeable amounts of money in new technology in an attempt to keep the doors open? No.

    We love our work and are damn good at it. We have some fantastic customers and some PITA customers.
    I just don't see us doing this same work 10 years down the road.

    Les

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    I have recently hired a couple of mechanical engineers out of college. Both had CNC experience and one of them worked for the school and developed a web interface to CNC machines on one campus across the state so that kids on one school here could interact with the machines in the other school via closed circuit video and robotics. They are both from an extension campus (WSU Vancouver) and both very capable "manufacturing" engineers.

    As far as process changes go - you need to look at what drives the need to make changes to the process.

    Is it not cost? Liability?

    Much of what I do for a living is design systems that eliminate waste, improve efficiency, increase production rates, provide greater flexibility. Where it took 4 people to run a production line 10 years ago, it now requires a single operator to run two lines that each run twice as fast.

    Has anyone visited the lights out operation at Caterpillar? No operators required in theory - they didn't make it this go around, but they make a bulldozer today with a fraction of the people needed only 15 years ago. The Japanese have done a better job of this, there is a Mazak automated machinery building center that makes Komatsu heavy construction equipment that is nothing short of amazing.

    Has anyone noted the new manufacturing processes involved in the 7E7 jetliner? The fuselage will be a carbon graphite filiment wound tube! No aluminum skin to machine, no rivits to install, no ribs to assemble. The amount of labor required to build this aircraft will be a fraction of what it took with the traditional aluminum bodied aircraft. Less labor, less liability, fewer union problems, lighter weight aircraft will burn less fuel . . . this is the way of the future.

    Look at the pain points and eliminate them . . . if we as a culture are less inclined to producing disciplined workers with a penchant for quality - and instead have an uneducated labor force that is prone to injury and litigation . . . eliminate the need for labor. If energy costs are ever increasing, decrease the need for energy.

    What will it be like 10 years from now? Look at the pain points and the direction we need to go to avoid them.

  9. #29
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    "What will it be like 10 years from now? Look at the pain points and the direction we need to go to avoid them. "

    That was a very enlightening statement!

    I also say that to get a very good idea of what manufacturing will be like ten years from now, we need to look at WHAT will be manufactured. I think there's going to be either throwaway items, or ones more durable than we've yet seen.

    BP

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    motion guru;
    not only have i been paying attention to the innovative approach that Boeing has been taking on this project but the grand scope of teaming that Boeing is persuing. i wouldnt be suprised if in the end Airbus will end up being a major contributor to this project...jim

  11. #31
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    Concerning automated manufacturing, the two important basic human concepts that I have seen over the years are:

    1. Common sense combined with a bit of risk taking.

    2. Small electrical and mechanical things that work better than they used to.

    OK, Number One results in someone saying that just because we did something this way for the past ten years doesn't mean that there is not now a better way. Let's take a chance on finding that better way.

    Number Two rsults in the means for that new way to happen. Look at the totally automated factories. They are not filled with big stuff. they are full of small servo motors and controls and sensors, valves and actuators.

    Look in the trade magazines, most of the stuff is in stock at the local supply house or available on line.

    For only one example, try www.automationdirect.com

    It seems nowadays that if your outfit has some capital or decent credit, you can get a bunch of hot - ticket college kids together and automate the hell out of the place in short order.

    Thirty years ago when I was doing this kind of work, most of the cool gizmo's that are on the shelf today were in the provence of sophisticated science labs.

    How many of you remember mini computers? They were really good machines, but they each ran proprietary software and had serious processing speed and storage limitations.

    How many remember Numerical Control Directors? They did a whole lot that today's CNC directors do, but they were sensitive to every bit of the noise and transients on the power line.

    How about solid state relays? 3 VDC turns on something that will conduct tens or hundreds of amps.

    Now, how about the imbedded computers? One big step beyond PLC's.

    We are actually ten years from now right now.

    It is just going to take the next ten years to overcome the human inertia.

    I am 60 years old, I love my manual machines, I'll be running them 'till I can't do it any longer.

    But that doesn't mean that I don't keep up with what's going on in the manufacturing industry.

    Just about any factory can be automated very nicely. It is for the 30 and 40 year olds not to get behind the times.

    Learn about the nifty gizno's out there and don't be afraid to mix and match them to make a production line go.

    Keep your wits about you, one mistake I have seen is inappropriately hi tech put to work in bad environments.

    Use simple, proven stuff in harsh situations.

    If you want really hi tech automation, then get your building and your HVAC in order first.

    Then Tell Everyone About What You Have Done!!!

    Document, Document, Document!

    Somebody has to keep the automated stuff in good repair. They can't do that if no one has written down how all the stuff works and works together.

    It isn't that you Can't automate, most of the time it is that the automation starts to give more trouble than it is worth. Doing the above makes that less likely to happen.

    Technically te USA is in a very good position to have the factory of tommorrow today.

    What country that factory of tomorrow is going to be in is a whole 'nother topic.

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  13. #32
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    As far as using plants to accumulate heavy metals- No, you dont eat them, unless you are running for President in the Ukraine- then you may eat some, but not on purpose.
    As I understand it, they burn the corn in a controlled atmosphere oven, and what is left is mercury, or arsenic, or whatever, concentrated, and in a form that can be reprocessed and re-used. This technology is just beginning, and probably wont be perfected in 10 years.
    Personally, I love hand processes, and basic craftsmanship. I think there will always be kids who naturally gravitate towards this kind of thing, and I think there will always be niche jobs for people who are good at it. Some of my favorite people in the world have invented their own jobs, becoming expert at occupations that arent supposed to exist- blacksmiths, ornamental turners, glassblowers, watchmakers, knifemakers, handbag makers, pen makers, jewelers, tube amp builders, builders of custom machines to do things most industry says cant be done.
    But on a larger scale, there just arent the thousands of jobs for production machinists running south bends that there were 50 years ago.
    So we are talking about 2 different things-
    1- we need to continue offering education in basic trades to kids who arent going to MIT to become astrophysicists. Learning to make things with your hands, to fix things, and how the world works is a good thing to teach everybody, actually. Mechanical literacy is just as important as the other kind.
    I think all high school kids should have some exposure to shop classes, including welding and machining. Then, there ought to be trade schools and community colleges to offer more advanced training.

    2-Most manufacturing of mass market items, and I would include in that things like cars, bulldozers and airplanes, as well as microwaves and cd players, is going to be more and more CNC, integrated manufacturing, and new "growth" technologies.
    There will still be a few niche areas, like Les and his stampings, where certain parts just have to be made the old way, or other industries, like military electronics chassis, where the volume might not justify giant production lines, but most stuff will get more and more high tech in the manufacture, with more GEE-WHIZ machines doing the job.
    Nanotech assemblies are sure more than 10 years out, but objects that "grow" themselves are definitely a possiblity, eventually. Read "The Diamond Age" by Neal Stephenson, for some very imaginative thinking on what might be possible.
    Fact is, the liveliehood of most of us here isnt in danger. The quirky stuff most of us do is still in demand. And the ones of us who work in really big industry, like Matt down at GM, well they are already seeing this change to future manufacturing techniques.

  14. #33
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    "I think all high school kids should have some exposure to shop classes, including welding and machining."

    And home ec and basic bookkeeping too. I'm always amazed by the people who are afraid to try cooking.

    They don't need double-entry accounting, but a quarter of "business ec" discussing keeping basic records for a cash-basis business, some info on taxes, budgeting, etc should be a standard class.

    None of this "I'm going to college why would I take shop, that's for dummies" attitude that I had in high school. [img]smile.gif[/img]

    Oh yeah, typing too. A year of Business Typing 1 in high school (the one semester personal typing was already full) was one of the most useful classes I took, and I don't see keyboards going away anytime soon.

    cheers,
    Michael

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    What always supprises me is the amount of effort and money our school system pours each year in to music and the arts, while constantally shrinking the shop cirriculums. As many have pointed out, working in the shop teaches practical real world manual problem solving. As nice as music may sound, I can't remember a time when I said "Gee Whizz, we have a big problem here, better get out my acordian and play!" However I can remember the many times when my dad and I's ability to work with our hands have solved many problems. Like for instance the friends leaking water main on Christmas Day, try calling a plumber then when you need it most. Well instead he called my father! I was a bit younger at the time, but my dad took me along for the ride. My dad and I arrived with our tools, and a box of odds and ends. Then he got to work. Not only did my dad show him how to turn off the water, but he fixed the cracked pipe, and had the water restored to the house by the end of the afternoon. While to many here this may sound quite trivial the truth is in this day and age alot of people just don't know how to do these things. Maybe the pricepal at my old school should stop pillaging the shop program, and be a little more fair in alotting the big $$ that the drama and music department recieve each year.

    As for typing course by the way, as my dad likes to joke, that and driver's ed are the only two classes he uses that he learned in highschool every day. I think Michael also has the right idea on cooking and basic financial skills. Being in college now it is amazing how much pizza some my friends who nolonger have campus meal plans eat as some of them couldn't cook if they tried. Not to mention when you get to college the food is so bad here that Girls are quite impressed I may add when you cook for them!But they didn't teach cooking or financial skills at all at my school. The only people they taught that stuff were to the mentally retarded students who were in a special program aimed at teaching how to live as a self sufficiently as possible.


    Adam

    [ 12-13-2004, 10:14 PM: Message edited by: adammil1 ]

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    Jim K - you hit the nail on the head with recognizing that 10 years from now is TODAY!

    Human inertia - we are right now busier than we have ever been installing control system retrofits on machines that . . . "WIND TOILET PAPER" The first retrofits were done almost 10 years ago for Scott Paper (anyone remember them?) They were bought by Kimberly Clark who had a "not invented here" attitude.

    We tried like hell to get them to buy into the retrofit package - they had two barn burner machines that ran circles around even the newest offerings from the machinery manufacturers. Nope - itsa black box, we don't do stuff like that here, too risky, etc.

    Today - KC still has thier head in the sand with this retrofit . . . fortunately for us, Georgia Pacific, Potlatch Corp, Irving Tissue and many smaller companies have seen the light and now we will have an ample supply of toilet paper for years to come! The essential technology has been around since the early 90's - but it takes balls to buy it and stake your profits on it. Balls are in short supply in corporate america.

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    Just stumbled on this thread and now 15 years later it is an interesting read to see the predictions.
    Remember that in 2004 iPhones had not been invented yet.
    Let the new predictions for the next ten years begin!

    Cheers

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    Quote Originally Posted by motion guru View Post
    Balls are in short supply in corporate america.
    Brains, even more so

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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Rogers View Post
    How will mfg be done then? I'm certain that by then this joyride of cheap foreign stuff will be done with. Foreigners will have quit financing our lavishness, and will also have their own markets developed and ours won't be as important to them.

    What will the minimum wage be? What will be the thing we look back on and say, "boy, what a bunch of suckers!" as far as investments?

    If you can tell us why you think what you do, it would be appreciated.

    In my view, we'll have faced (and will still be facing?)bad inflation by then, higher unemployment, property will be considered good investment, the stock market will be God knows what, and the US will be out of Iraq, good or bad. Oil will be sky high, not a doubt in my mind about that one. CNC will become the norm, even in small shops. Believe it or not, I think there will be lots of smaller CNC shops doing local work--sticking my neck out on that one, but I could be right.

    I really hope to see lawyers taken down a notch or two, and I think the EU will be catching/passing us by then. Our deficits will have come home to roost, that is for certain.

    On the bright side, livings for some who are not doing too well now will be good, and I plan to have lots of things paid for by then. [img]smile.gif[/img]

    Richard
    The only thing the OP got right was that CNC's are commonplace and essentially mandatory to exist in 2019. This is why Warren Buffet loves Coca Cola... If I had to bet anything about 10 years from now you will be able to get a Coke.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    The only thing the OP got right was that CNC's are commonplace and essentially mandatory to exist in 2019. This is why Warren Buffet loves Coca Cola... If I had to bet anything about 10 years from now you will be able to get a Coke.
    Reminds me of an existentially tragic, yet fascinatingly cool statement I once read: "You will never go to Mars, but McDonald's will"

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    I miss Jim K.
    And, by and large, he called it.


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