hanermo
Titanium
- Joined
- Sep 28, 2009
- Location
- barcelona, spain
5/2018 the new Tesla Model 3 is more or less the most popular premium or starter-deluxe sedan in the US.
Around 8-10-12.000 tsla Model3 cars/month by run-rate, and the limiting factor is they cannot yet make them fast enough.
The best-selling premium sedans in the us are around 7000 / month.
At some point, perhaps within 2 months or 3 months, tsla will be delivering about 5k/week or 20.000 /month of the Model 3 - and until around 2019 most/almost all will be in the USA.
Essentially the new Tesla Model 3 will take away / has already grabbed a huge chunk of the market from all other manufacturers - the most profitable part of the market for audi, bmw, mb, lexus, infinity etc.
It seems that 20-30% of the us premium-starter-car market already goes to tsla M3.
If that is the case, then the other manufacturers will not be able to pay their bonds once tsla scales above == 20k-40k units per month globally.
E.
Audi makes most of the money from models 2-3-4.
Audi needs == 1% year/year incremental sales to pay ongoing obligations and run the business.
Audi is profitable, and has == 1 yr of *opex* aka operating expenses, not turnover, as cash in hand and also has major assets.
But audi also has about 1 yr of turnover in liabilities - plus some extra long-term employee pension liabilities not yet on the books.
Audi cannot fire the employees- impossible in germany or the EU without very heavy major costs of approx 1-2 years gross salaries per person.
If audi sales in the most profitable 2-3-4 segment start to decrease meaningfully, 1-2% per month, and sequentially, the bond ratings agencies will downgrade audi debt.
If the audi debt is downgraded they will need to post their existing cash as collateral, and once the decline continues the thing cascades into a fast market-driven BK.
This is what I said == 2.5 years ago.
Tsla (and BEVs) is about 9 months late .. but the Tsla m3 deliveries in qty are finally happening and scaling up.
D:
I may go for a Big Short on Big Auto via investors.
Around 8-10-12.000 tsla Model3 cars/month by run-rate, and the limiting factor is they cannot yet make them fast enough.
The best-selling premium sedans in the us are around 7000 / month.
At some point, perhaps within 2 months or 3 months, tsla will be delivering about 5k/week or 20.000 /month of the Model 3 - and until around 2019 most/almost all will be in the USA.
Essentially the new Tesla Model 3 will take away / has already grabbed a huge chunk of the market from all other manufacturers - the most profitable part of the market for audi, bmw, mb, lexus, infinity etc.
It seems that 20-30% of the us premium-starter-car market already goes to tsla M3.
If that is the case, then the other manufacturers will not be able to pay their bonds once tsla scales above == 20k-40k units per month globally.
E.
Audi makes most of the money from models 2-3-4.
Audi needs == 1% year/year incremental sales to pay ongoing obligations and run the business.
Audi is profitable, and has == 1 yr of *opex* aka operating expenses, not turnover, as cash in hand and also has major assets.
But audi also has about 1 yr of turnover in liabilities - plus some extra long-term employee pension liabilities not yet on the books.
Audi cannot fire the employees- impossible in germany or the EU without very heavy major costs of approx 1-2 years gross salaries per person.
If audi sales in the most profitable 2-3-4 segment start to decrease meaningfully, 1-2% per month, and sequentially, the bond ratings agencies will downgrade audi debt.
If the audi debt is downgraded they will need to post their existing cash as collateral, and once the decline continues the thing cascades into a fast market-driven BK.
This is what I said == 2.5 years ago.
Tsla (and BEVs) is about 9 months late .. but the Tsla m3 deliveries in qty are finally happening and scaling up.
D:
I may go for a Big Short on Big Auto via investors.