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  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by tdmidget View Post
    The supply of starry eyed gluttons for punishment is running out.
    You give them credit for too much common sense. People on this forum, whom one might expect to have at least some real-world experience, have uncritically accepted Anthropogenic Global Warming as the cause of planetary climate fluctuation. It's easy enough to say they didn't pay attention in school, except that they did—and that's the really depressing part. Either way, there obviously remains yet an ample supply of fodder for putatively planet-saving endeavors like Tesla. As long as it's cool to work there you'll have useful idiots willing to do it for free. At some point, however, it will become impossible to sustain the Green mania, not that it has ever captured as many adherents as they claim; the largest selling vehicle in North America is still a truck.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    At some point, however, it will become impossible to sustain the Green mania, not that it has ever captured as many adherents as they claim; the largest selling vehicle in North America is still a truck.
    That's wonderful - *if* you think the USA is the centre of the universe. But actually it's a pretty mature market.

    Disclaimer - I drive a truck, but it's a 1 tonne payload Isuzu 4WD turbo-diesel with a 5 speed stick shift, not one of those overblown pox-doctor specials that have the USA market by the balls.

    I also have an old Subaru 4WD sedan which I'd replace with an EV car if/when the cost made it worthwhile. Not yet and maybe not ever.

    WRT Musk fucking up mass production and driving his people like slaves, I'm not disputing any of that.

    My point remains - where is your list of EV cars from the big traditional manufacturers that have equal or better performance, range and equal or lesser cost? None of you have come up with a list or even a single example. The parallels to IBM trying to protect their midrange & mini computers from the rise of the PC seems obvious to me. Or Digital Equipment Corp from the likes of the cheap unix based systems like Sun Microsystems. DEC is dead, Sun is owned by Oracle who are waging a war against the likes of Postgres.

    Musk may well fail due to overreach & hubris but at least he won't die wondering if he should have a go. I give him a lot of credit for that.

    PDW

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    Silly publicity stunt and monumental dummy spit in Thailand not a good look ......or a sign of stability going forward............

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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    That's wonderful - *if* you think the USA is the centre of the universe. But actually it's a pretty mature market.
    ....

    My point remains - where is your list of EV cars from the big traditional manufacturers that have equal or better performance, range and equal or lesser cost? None of you have come up with a list or even a single example. The parallels to IBM trying to protect their midrange & mini computers from the rise of the PC seems obvious to me. Or Digital Equipment Corp from the likes of the cheap unix based systems like Sun Microsystems. DEC is dead, Sun is owned by Oracle who are waging a war against the likes of Postgres.
    ....

    PDW
    The USA is no longer the center of the universe. Everyone gets that.
    To point two and tradition markers the world of EV is not here yet in mass market.
    Maybe they are poised ready and waiting for customers.
    No way the same parallel as IBM and DEC.
    At this point in history you sell EVs at a loss so only a fool pushes a losing dollar product.
    Nobody makes money on this market segment now. None.
    You may see a future in it and invest a whole ton of money.
    If you think the major players are not in touch with this I don't know what to say. Maybe check the employment wanted ads.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    The USA is no longer the center of the universe. Everyone gets that.
    To point two and tradition markers the world of EV is not here yet in mass market.
    Maybe they are poised ready and waiting for customers.
    No way the same parallel as IBM and DEC.
    At this point in history you sell EVs at a loss so only a fool pushes a losing dollar product.
    Nobody makes money on this market segment now. None.
    You may see a future in it and invest a whole ton of money.
    If you think the major players are not in touch with this I don't know what to say. Maybe check the employment wanted ads.
    Bob
    So basically the list of cars comparable to Tesla's is zero, got that.

    I note that nobody is disputing Hanermo's claims about battery raw material resource availability and competing tech for EV's either. OK maybe all the big auto guys are sitting on better high power VFD's, electric motors and high power density battery packs with blindingly fast recharge times at dirt cheap costs. That would be truly wonderful. But believable....

    More likely they're waiting for Musk to fail and buy up the remains of the biz for pennies on the dollar invested.

    Kind of fun seeing how it plays out as I've no skin in the game. In fact outside cities I don't think BEV's *are* ready for prime time - I just drove some 1500 km last week in my diesel 4WD and I really like the 5 minute refueling time plus the extra 20 litres of diesel in the back. A BEV would drive me nuts even assuming it could carry a tonne in the back.

    As for checking the employment wanted, bit late for that. I'm 65, made all the money I'll ever need 10 years ago, basically retired, and only work on things I want to work on nowadays. I'm doing software upgrades on a niche product that I own ATM and the clients are quite happy to pay my invoices without quibbles. If/when they want to stop, I'll walk away and play with my boats & bulldozers. I'm quite happy with life.

    PDW

    PDW

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    I for one don't know nor care how it's plaid out at the end, but this:

    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    If you think the major players are not in touch with this I don't know what to say.
    Bob
    is what it all boils down to.

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    #217 PDW
    "Or perhaps, since he gives numbers and his assumptions, you could try to actually refute his arguments?"

    You have not only not got hold of the right end of the stick, you have not even got the right stick, or even the correctly coloured and shaped stick!

    Do they not do stick recognition and selection lessons in Australian schools any more? Or were you just absent?

    What I was suggesting is that hanermo is abusing this website, using it not for its intended purpose. Frequently. At great length. Repetitively, to well past the point of tedium, and maybe he should stop. Or pay for promoting his own interests on PM.

    Just that, nothing more, read #209 again. How did you read into my one line comment that I was referring to or intending to refute arguments? This juvenile error rendered the rest of your, mainly abusive, "contribution", otiose.

    If I was interested in refuting arguments I would have a problem. They are nearly non-existent. Plenty of assumptions (as you noted), claims, assertions, forecasts and extrapolations. Badly organised and presented.

    If you wish to believe that the largest car manufacturers on earth will simultaneously cease trading and Musk will take over, please do so. If you believe Musk is the only person pushing the boundaries you are merely ill-informed.

    That's more of my time than you deserve.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    People on this forum, whom one might expect to have at least some real-world experience, have uncritically accepted Anthropogenic Global Warming as the cause of planetary climate fluctuation.
    Is it time for the "ostriches don't really put their heads in the sand ?" conversation again ?

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    I suppose one could say some of the big players are looking far past EV.
    This belongs in my drone thread but the tie in here suggested a forgone conclusion about EV :

    Airbus unveils an autonomous, modular flying car concept

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    The Jetsons have finally arrived ! I've been waiting forever !

    Popular Mechanics will be so pleased

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    I might’ve already mentioned this – years back I was doing a commercial unit build out near a industrial park and met a guy who is stashed away in one of the units building a flying car.
    He was all hush-hush about it. He had a couple of machinists in there with some machine tools making the components and had them sworn to secrecy and told us that we couldn’t mention anything about it.
    The damn thing is it was the same concept that has been around since the 20s- some little piece of shit car with wings call cobbled onto it.
    I could see right away that the whole exercise was futile and nothing more than a harmless waste of time for the guy designing the project.

    Though fully a “concept” from Airbus it appeares that this new form has something.

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    Sure, Tesla cars get high remarks from their owners and the automotive press, but a lot of that is just irrational giddiness over a new product, a product that is expensive, rare, and thus "exclusive to the club".

    The thing that gets me about Tesla is long-term reliability.

    Honda, Toyota, GM, Ford, etc. all spend millions of dollars, and more importantly millions of testing hours, just to refine and insure their designs hold up long-term.

    And I'm not just talking about engines and transmissions, they durability-test everything --- from the braking and steering systems, to the interior bits and pieces, all the way down to the rubber gaskets that seal up the doors when closed!

    Without this exhaustive testing --- and the resulting data that allows every component to be optimized over time for longevity, I just can't see how a Tesla car will hold up past the 5-year mark, certainly the 10-year mark.

    Squeaks, rattles, failed switches, leaks, etc. will abound on Tesla cars as they age. They just don't have the testing and engineering data to insure their cars will be OK long term

    ToolCat

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    Quote Originally Posted by tdmidget View Post
    "I've no dog in this fight but currently, Elon Musk is about the ONLY person running a decent sized manufacturing setup that's wildly innovating and pushing the edges. Sure there's a good chance he'll fail, but he's DOING STUFF."


    He is NOT making his numbers. The 5000 in a week took 6 hours more than a week. This was a publicity stunt just like Henry Kaiser's Liberty ship in one week. It was launched in a week after assembly from preassembled components. No where near complete . Tesla will probably not come that close again.
    If any major auto manufacturer wanted to they would make that without 3 shifts.
    I don't disagree with much of what you said, but this last bit is, I think, basically BS

    first 6 hours, OK, if that is true he was 175 short or something, whatever.

    second. all cars are built in assembly plants. Thats what they do. Assemble.

    third, he has been making a ton of cars, they delivered 40k cars last quarter. 30k the quarter before that. That is not fooling around.

    Time will tell if it is sustainable, or if his being a total nutbag will crash the company

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    The damn thing is it was the same concept that has been around since the 20s- some little piece of shit car with wings call cobbled onto it.
    Pietenpohl, I think ? The Air Camper ? A Model T with wings ?

    Might be fun for when I get too old to care about Death

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    Quote Originally Posted by PDW View Post
    That's wonderful - *if* you think the USA is the centre of the universe. But actually it's a pretty mature market.

    Disclaimer - I drive a truck, but it's a 1 tonne payload Isuzu 4WD turbo-diesel with a 5 speed stick shift, not one of those overblown pox-doctor specials that have the USA market by the balls.

    I also have an old Subaru 4WD sedan which I'd replace with an EV car if/when the cost made it worthwhile. Not yet and maybe not ever.

    WRT Musk fucking up mass production and driving his people like slaves, I'm not disputing any of that.

    My point remains - where is your list of EV cars from the big traditional manufacturers that have equal or better performance, range and equal or lesser cost? None of you have come up with a list or even a single example. The parallels to IBM trying to protect their midrange & mini computers from the rise of the PC seems obvious to me. Or Digital Equipment Corp from the likes of the cheap unix based systems like Sun Microsystems. DEC is dead, Sun is owned by Oracle who are waging a war against the likes of Postgres.

    Musk may well fail due to overreach & hubris but at least he won't die wondering if he should have a go. I give him a lot of credit for that.

    PDW
    Perhaps there are no candidates on that list because ......

    The major competitors are producing HYBRIDS rather than pure EVs (which have serious limitations at the current state of technology and installed infrastructure). There are also more than a few plug-in hybrids that offer the best of both worlds for the situation that exists today. Charge it and drive within its round trip range, or go further and enjoy the convenience of readily available liquid fuel and almost unlimited range.

    A major issue with Tesla is that the entire business model was based on producing ZERO EMISSIONS vehicles in order to sell carbon credits and taking advantage of harsh government actions against ICE vehicles in places like Norway. Now, major auto manufacturers generate their own carbon credits by producing EVs that only a minority wish to buy and selling them at what are essentially subsidized prices and even Norway is scaling back its incentives for EVs as this 2015 article predicted.

    Norway’s electric-car incentives were so good they had to be stopped — Quartz

    Elsewhere on the "climate change" front residential solar cells are also seeing incentives vanish as the numbers increase to where they are no longer economically sustainable at the expense of the rest of the population. Much of what is currently touted as "sustainable" technology is actually unsustainable without generous incentives and until and unless it develops to where it can stand on its own merits it will face further roadblocks to future expansion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Perhaps there are no candidates on that list because ......

    The major competitors are producing HYBRIDS rather than pure EVs (which have serious limitations at the current state of technology and installed infrastructure). There are also more than a few plug-in hybrids that offer the best of both worlds for the situation that exists today. Charge it and drive within its round trip range, or go further and enjoy the convenience of readily available liquid fuel and almost unlimited range.

    A major issue with Tesla is that the entire business model was based on producing ZERO EMISSIONS vehicles in order to sell carbon credits and taking advantage of harsh government actions against ICE vehicles in places like Norway. Now, major auto manufacturers generate their own carbon credits by producing EVs that only a minority wish to buy and selling them at what are essentially subsidized prices and even Norway is scaling back its incentives for EVs as this 2015 article predicted.

    Norway’s electric-car incentives were so good they had to be stopped — Quartz

    Elsewhere on the "climate change" front residential solar cells are also seeing incentives vanish as the numbers increase to where they are no longer economically sustainable at the expense of the rest of the population. Much of what is currently touted as "sustainable" technology is actually unsustainable without generous incentives and until and unless it develops to where it can stand on its own merits it will face further roadblocks to future expansion.
    You really think ICE “stands on its own merits”.
    Try driving one without the US navy keeping the sea lanes open.
    And the global health expenses absorbed by various tax bases.And the trillions in RD that have been donated to the oil industry.

    Solar panels?
    We require insulation in houses for energy purposes...solar panels are no different.
    Well, the difference really is that the whole “market forces” crowd decided to “incentivize” installation with tax dollars rather than simply requiring them to be installed.
    We don’t “incentivize” insulation, why do we incentivize solar?

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    Sure, Tesla cars get high remarks from their owners and the automotive press, but a lot of that is just irrational giddiness over a new product, a product that is expensive, rare, and thus "exclusive to the club".

    The thing that gets me about Tesla is long-term reliability.

    Honda, Toyota, GM, Ford, etc. all spend millions of dollars, and more importantly millions of testing hours, just to refine and insure their designs hold up long-term.

    And I'm not just talking about engines and transmissions, they durability-test everything --- from the braking and steering systems, to the interior bits and pieces, all the way down to the rubber gaskets that seal up the doors when closed!

    Without this exhaustive testing --- and the resulting data that allows every component to be optimized over time for longevity, I just can't see how a Tesla car will hold up past the 5-year mark, certainly the 10-year mark.

    Squeaks, rattles, failed switches, leaks, etc. will abound on Tesla cars as they age. They just don't have the testing and engineering data to insure their cars will be OK long term

    ToolCat
    Except Tesla has been around for quite a while, and there is not evidence for this. GM makes crap cars despite their testing. Most of the testing is done so they can save a nickel by making something cheaper. I have seen no evidence that they care one whit about anything that happens once a car is out of warranty. I should not pick on GM, it is true of all car companies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    You really think ICE “stands on its own merits”.
    Try driving one without the US navy keeping the sea lanes open.
    And the global health expenses absorbed by various tax bases.And the trillions in RD that have been donated to the oil industry.

    Solar panels?
    We require insulation in houses for energy purposes...solar panels are no different.
    Well, the difference really is that the whole “market forces” crowd decided to “incentivize” installation with tax dollars rather than simply requiring them to be installed.
    We don’t “incentivize” insulation, why do we incentivize solar?
    Seriously? And you call yourself an engineer?

    Insolation is vastly different from Insulation.

    Insulation is PASSIVE. Solar cells produce energy in amounts that vary greatly depending on the amount of Insolation (received solar radiation) and they produce ZERO output during hours of darkness. Currently in the U.S. most residential installations sell most of the daylight output to the utility at the full retail rate, which makes the electricity produced much more expensive for the utility's other customers after the utility's uncompensated costs get passed on. After dark all electricity is supplied from the grid.

    Hawaii is the future of residential solar and under Hawaii's current rules rooftop cells are less attractive even with it's much higher electric rates than the mainland. Under current rules you can either sell your entire output to the utility at roughly wholesale rates or you can use it to reduce your own consumption from the grid. You can't do both.

    And you are clearly clueless as to how the grid works. Your suggestion that government require solar panels be universally installed ignores the facts. Solar panels have ZERO energy storage and every kilowatt of potential energy supplied to the grid by them requires an equivalent amount of conventional generation to be kept spinning at light load to cover fluctuations caused by cloud cover and other insolation reducing factors. I seriously doubt that many of the advocates of such a scheme would tolerate the brownouts and rolling blackouts that would be part and parcel of a grid with universal residential solar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Seriously? And you call yourself an engineer?

    Insolation is vastly different from Insulation.

    Insulation is PASSIVE. Solar cells produce energy in amounts that vary greatly depending on the amount of Insolation (received solar radiation) and they produce ZERO output during hours of darkness. Currently in the U.S. most residential installations sell most of the daylight output to the utility at the full retail rate, which makes the electricity produced much more expensive for the utility's other customers after the utility's uncompensated costs get passed on. After dark all electricity is supplied from the grid.

    Hawaii is the future of residential solar and under Hawaii's current rules rooftop cells are less attractive even with it's much higher electric rates than the mainland. Under current rules you can either sell your entire output to the utility at roughly wholesale rates or you can use it to reduce your own consumption from the grid. You can't do both.

    And you are clearly clueless as to how the grid works. Your suggestion that government require solar panels be universally installed ignores the facts. Solar panels have ZERO energy storage and every kilowatt of potential energy supplied to the grid by them requires an equivalent amount of conventional generation to be kept spinning at light load to cover fluctuations caused by cloud cover and other insolation reducing factors. I seriously doubt that many of the advocates of such a scheme would tolerate the brownouts and rolling blackouts that would be part and parcel of a grid with universal residential solar.
    Ahem...
    The end PURPOSE is the same.
    To reduce energy use.

    The POLICY is the question.
    Why "incentivize" one energy use reducer and require another?

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    Tesla has some additional issues: WSJ: Tesla Seeking Cash from Suppliers


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