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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    I disagree.
    I might be wrong.

    Tsla took over the premium lux sedans with the Model S/X.
    Tsla has taken over the premium starter lux market in BMW3/Audi 2-3-4 series.

    There are zero global suppliers of batteries for audi/bmw/gm/etc to deliver meaningful numbers of cells, or batteries, or electrified cars, before about 2021.

    There is zero battery precursor materials availability, globally, for lots of bev cars ex-tsla.
    In qty 1M+ units at 100 kWh/car, that would need about 2-10x current global free capacity in cadmium, if vw and toyota actually started to make and deliver 10-20% bev cars.

    Tsla has the most liked car ever, by customer satisfaction.
    Tsla has the largest pre-order book ever for any product in the world == 450.000 M3 at == 42k each.
    Tsla has the fastest charge rate of any bev currently shipping by over 200% or more.

    Positives:
    Tsla has the smallest and cheapest 3-phase vfd on the model s/x - in the world.
    And the most efficient vfd - mass/cooling/longevity easily proves this.
    13 banks of 203x igbts serial/paralleled == 96% efficient.

    Negatives:
    Tsla has (had) multiple errors and challenges in their execution. Yes.
    And has had huge risks, tremendous risks, in how they have done things. Yes.
    And has seemingly done poor cavalier decisions/treatment on ex workers of all levels (legal).


    My opinion:
    The US Big three and VW/japanese are about to have an existential event.
    2 years ago I predicted that the Big Auto industry is disrupted in 2018 - +/- 1 year.
    My prediction stands.

    I acknowledge the event is perhaps one year later-2019.
    I think the disruption is mostly very negative short term - and very positive medium term.

    My projection:
    A huge nr of jobs may/will be lost in gas stations, auto service, gas and oil industries when demand reduces fast.
    A lot of stock market pain is inevitable.
    Most gas/oil companies are highly leveraged via debt and depend on endless growth == 1% y/y exponential.

    Most service stations will close, most pipeline jobs, most refinery jobs, most oil shipping jobs.
    A 5-8% BEV auto market will cause all above.


    ---
    cnctoolcat - your opinion ignores current global realities.
    In raw materials, in global production of same, in usage of same.

    Tsla uses about 60% of all advanced lion cells/materials in the world.
    There is zero possibility vw / gm / someone can do much more in the short term.

    In medium terms 3-8 years obviously gm/vw/anyone can make much more precursor materials. If they are willing to invest 1-5B$ in it.
    It seems obvious this will happen.
    Around 40 project globally are in-process reportedly.
    You are making a grand assumption that Lion technology is the battery solution.

    I think we will see a new battery technology based on carbon nano tubes coming out in a couple of years from a German company. The technology has been figured out it is just scaling the manufacturing.

    I think this is where Tesla has substantial risk, they are assuming that Lion will be the favored battery technology. If the technology shifts to the next big thing, they will then have to compete head on with everyone else.

    All of the nifty hardware that Tesla has developed has a limited shelf life and they have done the R&D that everyone else can copy or at least learn from. This makes their slow start in meeting market demand very dangerous.

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  3. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    I disagree.
    I might be wrong.

    Tsla took over the premium lux sedans with the Model S/X.
    Tsla has taken over the premium starter lux market in BMW3/Audi 2-3-4 series.

    There are zero global suppliers of batteries for audi/bmw/gm/etc to deliver meaningful numbers of cells, or batteries, or electrified cars, before about 2021.

    There is zero battery precursor materials availability, globally, for lots of bev cars ex-tsla.
    In qty 1M+ units at 100 kWh/car, that would need about 2-10x current global free capacity in cadmium, if vw and toyota actually started to make and deliver 10-20% bev cars.

    Tsla has the most liked car ever, by customer satisfaction.
    Tsla has the largest pre-order book ever for any product in the world == 450.000 M3 at == 42k each.
    Tsla has the fastest charge rate of any bev currently shipping by over 200% or more.

    Positives:
    Tsla has the smallest and cheapest 3-phase vfd on the model s/x - in the world.
    And the most efficient vfd - mass/cooling/longevity easily proves this.
    13 banks of 203x igbts serial/paralleled == 96% efficient.

    Negatives:
    Tsla has (had) multiple errors and challenges in their execution. Yes.
    And has had huge risks, tremendous risks, in how they have done things. Yes.
    And has seemingly done poor cavalier decisions/treatment on ex workers of all levels (legal).


    My opinion:
    The US Big three and VW/japanese are about to have an existential event.
    2 years ago I predicted that the Big Auto industry is disrupted in 2018 - +/- 1 year.
    My prediction stands.

    I acknowledge the event is perhaps one year later-2019.
    I think the disruption is mostly very negative short term - and very positive medium term.

    My projection:
    A huge nr of jobs may/will be lost in gas stations, auto service, gas and oil industries when demand reduces fast.
    A lot of stock market pain is inevitable.
    Most gas/oil companies are highly leveraged via debt and depend on endless growth == 1% y/y exponential.

    Most service stations will close, most pipeline jobs, most refinery jobs, most oil shipping jobs.
    A 5-8% BEV auto market will cause all above.


    ---
    cnctoolcat - your opinion ignores current global realities.
    In raw materials, in global production of same, in usage of same.

    Tsla uses about 60% of all advanced lion cells/materials in the world.
    There is zero possibility vw / gm / someone can do much more in the short term.

    In medium terms 3-8 years obviously gm/vw/anyone can make much more precursor materials. If they are willing to invest 1-5B$ in it.
    It seems obvious this will happen.
    Around 40 project globally are in-process reportedly.
    A long list of your reasons why you think it s a great strategy, idea, etc. Zero to do with whether its a short or not.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    To me, Tesla stock is way over valued
    .
    That is the only reasons needed to be short. It maybe the best thing since sliced bread, but will they make it and make without a huge dive in the price on the shock market. I don't have a strong view on this stock, but I would tend to take short view. Its expensive and there is lots of risk, so it seems difficult to understand how you couldn't the short side as well. Really, one should be able see the short/long side of any stock. Any company presents a bunch of risks and opportunities. All a short or long is, is based on that context, all the risks and opportunities, is the price today is too high or too low?

  4. #23
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    "Don't short support".....

    I don't know that I would enter the short just now- technically it's a toss up:
    Price just hit overhead resistance after a bounce off of long term support- betwixt and between- take the short term trade short and watch to see if support below holds again?
    Support is just twenty bucks lower- watch for that line and take trade direction there?
    The logical short entries would have been at resistance during consolidation- nice safe entry with known decending line so tests on decline of price.
    Now tests are on ascension line so tougher to call stops on failure of trade..


    The chart work:
    https://invst.ly/7fm6q

    Edit- maybe a decent short- just watch that line like and get out if it manages a rally over.
    The bet needs a close eye on the Dow...
    And maybe the better question- would I buy that chart: NO..

  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Hanermo,

    In thread after thread you come across as a shill for Tesla stock. This comment is definitely investment related.

    "I may go for a Big Short on Big Auto via investors."

    Further proof that your posts are investment related is your constant use of the ticker symbol instead of the company name.

    While you can buy and sell whatever stock you want I wish you would stop trying to talk the rest of us into buying Tesla stock. We're not as gullible as you seem to think.
    It never even occurred to me that this was a thing, but I've been struggling to understand the OP's continued horn-tooting for a company that has showed bad sign after bad sign, after bad sign.

    If Tesla was any other company (i.e. didn't have fanboys the way Apple does) they probably wouldn't even still exist. I'd think it would be embarrassing to keep posting "they're about to turn it around!" for 2 years, only to have them continually fail to do so.

    Of course, I'm only in the Automation industry, and only have first-hand reports from people I know and trust of what a meatgrinder Tesla is, and that they can't keep any of the actual experienced and talented automation and manufacturing engineers employed because they treat them like dirt. It's just the green fanboys (and fangirls, although women are typically smarter than men when it comes to being mistreated by employers) who think it's just so cool to work for Tesla who stay.

    Kind of hard to turn things around when you don't have anybody who knows how to fix the problems.

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  7. #25
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    I believe when a company achieves the kind of revenues that Apple has we have to start looking at a broader market depth.
    Revenues are $230,000,000,000.00 which makes them one of the largest revenue companies in the world.
    Thats either a lot of nerds or...

  8. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    The sedan market in the US is shrinking, losing market share to SUV's, crossovers and light pickup trucks.

    ...

    Tesla may do well building an upscale all-electric sedan, but they are behind-the-curve on where the American market for automobiles is going.
    Tesla already has a crossover / SUV.

  9. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny SolidWorks View Post
    Kind of hard to turn things around when you don't have anybody who knows how to fix the problems.
    how hard can it be? (sarcasm)

    While I think it a bit laughable, or maybe its just his ego, that someone who hit his numbers once in an explosive market in internet/IT will have the Midas touch in something as different as the global car manufacturing business.

    otoh, it is just friggin awesome that someone who made it like that is taking big risks in new and innovate fields. Whether you like him or the product, I think its admirable (if not a more than a little reckless) that's he's doing extreme venture capital with his money vs buying REITs and bank stocks

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    We're not as gullible as you seem to think.
    Hell if we are NOT!

    Just more likely to buy yester-year's, if not-also yester-CENTURY's machine-tools than year-after-tomorrow's EV equities is all..


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    Quote Originally Posted by tomato coupe View Post
    Tesla already has a crossover / SUV.
    That is priced higher than any similar vehicle like a BMW X5 or Mercedes GLE... There is a HUGE difference between a consumer buying a $30k Ford Edge (msrp starting at $29,500) and a Tesla Model X with an MSRP of $79,500. Hell a brand new BMW X5 starts at $52k and you can get an X5M for $100k. A Mercedes GLS450 has a lower MSRP than the Tesla at $69,500 and is bigger, has a twin turbo V6 and a towing capacity of 7500 pounds. Seeing as you have $70k to drop on a SUV gas is likely not even a thought in your mind and you can load the GLS up with you and all your friends and tow your $50k Airstream across the country to Yellowstone with your yuppie friends in comfort with zero hassles related to EV ownership.

    People buying Teslas are doing it as a fashion statement so they only have to live with the white privilege and not have to bear the crushing guilt of damaging the environment.

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  14. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    That is priced higher than any similar vehicle like a BMW X5 or Mercedes GLE... There is a HUGE difference between a consumer buying a $30k Ford Edge (msrp starting at $29,500) and a Tesla Model X with an MSRP of $79,500. Hell a brand new BMW X5 starts at $52k and you can get an X5M for $100k. A Mercedes GLS450 has a lower MSRP than the Tesla at $69,500 and is bigger, has a twin turbo V6 and a towing capacity of 7500 pounds. Seeing as you have $70k to drop on a SUV gas is likely not even a thought in your mind and you can load the GLS up with you and all your friends and tow your $50k Airstream across the country to Yellowstone with your yuppie friends in comfort with zero hassles related to EV ownership.

    People buying Teslas are doing it as a fashion statement so they only have to live with the white privilege and not have to bear the crushing guilt of damaging the environment.
    I’d love to have a Tesla.
    I hardly ever drive more than 20 miles a day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    People buying Teslas are doing it as a fashion statement so they only have to live with the white privilege and not have to bear the crushing guilt of damaging the environment.
    I don't wanna even GO there as to the buyer's genuine "motivation", but really?

    Not a secret that the manufacture of EV's, then conveying energy TO them - or your residence or mine, frankly - is not so different after all as to ecological net-net effect than were we still operating off light petro distillates for heat and transport alike.

    The hit on the ecology just isn't as easy to MEASURE without digging into the logistics tail behind the end-products.

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  17. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    I don't wanna even GO there as to the buyer's genuine "motivation", but really?

    Not a secret that the manufacture of EV's, then conveying energy TO them - or your residence or mine, frankly - is not so different after all as to ecological net-net effect than were we still operating off light petro distillates for heat and transport alike.

    The hit on the ecology just isn't as easy to MEASURE without digging into the logistics tail behind the end-products.
    I 100% agree... being alive is bad for the environment. But like George Carlin said, the planet isn't going anywhere... the people are! And in light of recent events in the same strain "People build their houses next to an active volcano and wonder why they have lava in their living room!"

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  19. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    I’d love to have a Tesla.
    I hardly ever drive more than 20 miles a day.
    There are people who are fantastic candidates to own an electric vehicle... I am excited to own an electric dirt bike when the prices come down. I would also consider commuting on an electric motorcycle if the price was lower.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    I 100% agree... being alive is bad for the environment.
    Agreed, the environment industry is about making people feel good. The only real way to meaningfully change the impact the species is having is less people. If you're for a negative population grown, drastically reduced immigration into the first world and a major global effort and distributing birth control I don't believe you care about the environment, you care about feeling good about how you care about the environment.

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  22. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Agreed, the environment industry is about making people feel good. The only real way to meaningfully change the impact the species is having is less people. If you're for a negative population grown, drastically reduced immigration into the first world and a major global effort and distributing birth control I don't believe you care about the environment, you care about feeling good about how you care about the environment.
    Could was. But with the alternatives that are closest to reality, not dream, being famine, epidemic, and at least ATTEMPTED wars of extermination, those don't look like the worst of alternatives.

    If a more perfect plan is to ever have a chance, the world has to at least stave-off terminal disaster until it is actually practical of implementation. Dreams make a poor substitute for beans when yer starvin', methane-laden flatulance or otherwise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post

    otoh, it is just friggin awesome that someone who made it like that is taking big risks in new and innovate fields. Whether you like him or the product, I think its admirable (if not a more than a little reckless) that's he's doing extreme venture capital with his money vs buying REITs and bank stocks
    I actually admire the guy quite a bit, and think it's awesome he's trying to break in to the auto market (where ridiculously excessive regulation has crushed every other attempt made, at the behest of the Big Three's Lobbyists.) That said, I think he and all of his advisers thought the actual manufacturing/automation part of the business would be easy, or at least the easiest part. I've seen some other newer, tech-ier companies make the exact same mistake, and watched them struggle as a result. One of those "well if Ford can do it, and they're a bunch of old idiots, how hard could it be?"

    Unfortunately, there's some wiring in my brain that makes my knee-jerk reaction to strongly dislike anything that's trendy, or popular with the popular crowd. I.e. my intense dislike for Apple, Tesla, veganism, moving to Colorado, craft breweries, Game of Thrones, etc., etc. Many of these things have redeeming qualities, and most of them I have limited experience with - I just don't like them on principle.

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  25. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcgyver View Post
    Agreed, the environment industry is about making people feel good. The only real way to meaningfully change the impact the species is having is less people. If you're for a negative population grown, drastically reduced immigration into the first world and a major global effort and distributing birth control I don't believe you care about the environment, you care about feeling good about how you care about the environment.
    You're forgetting something, or maybe making a (hopefully) bad assumption: human beings won't be a single planet species forever. At some point, if we want to survive, we'll have to learn to survive in space and colonize other planets. Probably sooner than later.

    Thankfully, the guy who's car company most of us are bashing is having a lot more success with his rocket company

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    I think this is where Tesla has substantial risk, they are assuming that Lion will be the favored battery technology. If the technology shifts to the next big thing, they will then have to compete head on with everyone else.
    I'd bet they are already prepared to make the switch and work it to their advantage. And the next ones, after that. It will be easier for Tesla with an experience base than even for a GMC or Toyota with big R&D budget. Further, Tesla has the attention of the "real" buyers.

    Volkswagen didn't "defend" the 75-80 octane Third Reich ersatz gasoline of their early years. They adapted, and rapidly, to wotever was cheap and common in countries poor or rich, Diesel as well as MOGAS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    I'd bet they are already prepared to make the switch and work it to their advantage. And the next ones, after that. It will be easier for Tesla with an experience base than even for a GMC or Toyota with big R&D budget. Further, Tesla has the attention of the "real" buyers.

    Volkswagen didn't "defend" the 75-80 octane Third Reich ersatz gasoline of their early years. They adapted, and rapidly, to wotever was cheap and common in countries poor or rich, Diesel as well as MOGAS.
    I wouldn't necessarily disagree with you. I was just trying to make the point that having lots of experience with today's new technology is not always a strength and many times a disadvantage. There is a tendency for disruptive technologies to appear when it looks like a particular group has a corner on experience and or knowledge.

    The premise was that Tesla has a huge advantage over the existing major auto manufactures because they are using a significant share of the Lion battery market. This may or may not be an advantage in that Tesla has designed their vehicle around specific Lion battery package characteristics.

    I think that the knowledge, skill, and experience to design and manufacture vehicles in a mass production environment and do it relatively inexpensively in a sense is a much greater technological accomplishment than actually designing a new BEV vehicle such as a Tesla car and the underlying reason why Tesla is struggling to meet their production numbers.

    This is the reason I have a difficult time getting excited over the idea that Tesla is going to dominate the auto industry.

    Iesla is in a unique position in that usually most new car attempts have failed due to lack of market demand. Tesla has the orders, they just can't make them at the numbers needed to fill the orders. Then add to this that they have yet to ship a car even close to the needed production cost to even breakeven.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ziggy2 View Post
    I wouldn't necessarily disagree with you. I was just trying to make the point that having lots of experience with today's new technology is not always a strength and many times a disadvantage. There is a tendency for disruptive technologies to appear when it looks like a particular group has a corner on experience and or knowledge.

    The premise was that Tesla has a huge advantage over the existing major auto manufactures because they are using a significant share of the Lion battery market. This may or may not be an advantage in that Tesla has designed their vehicle around specific Lion battery package characteristics.
    The more you know, the easier it is to "port" what you have to go and find out. Example. Marmon had built FLOUR MILLS. Younger generation tried race cars, fire engines, trucks, and motor busses, eventually armoured cars. Meanwhile Harley Earl over at Buick was getting good at mass production of rather decent quality passenger cars. Only.

    War Two breaks out, other guys armour is clobbering us. Marmon and Buick design the fastest over-the-ground armoured fighting vehicle ever mass-produced. M18 Hellcat Tank Destroyers had nothing at all in common with the products of either company that contributed to the design
    team. But they tilted the table and changed the game. Moreover, did that with a barely adequate gun, but the ability hide really well in ambush, or get around and behind a Tiger Tank in its plain view - just faster than the Tiger could traverse is turret to hit them.

    Tesla may have to do that sort of Hail Mary save. Or die trying.

    Can't revert to flour mills or kitchenware.

    GMC et al can try and write-off a miss as just another of their many whimpers. They have the option of caution. They tend to lean on it, and hard. "Volt" anyone?


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