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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    That is priced higher than any similar vehicle like a BMW X5 or Mercedes GLE... There is a HUGE difference between a consumer buying a $30k Ford Edge (msrp starting at $29,500) and a Tesla Model X with an MSRP of $79,500. Hell a brand new BMW X5 starts at $52k and you can get an X5M for $100k. A Mercedes GLS450 has a lower MSRP than the Tesla at $69,500 and is bigger, has a twin turbo V6 and a towing capacity of 7500 pounds. Seeing as you have $70k to drop on a SUV gas is likely not even a thought in your mind and you can load the GLS up with you and all your friends and tow your $50k Airstream across the country to Yellowstone with your yuppie friends in comfort with zero hassles related to EV ownership.

    People buying Teslas are doing it as a fashion statement so they only have to live with the white privilege and not have to bear the crushing guilt of damaging the environment.
    I'm not sure what the point of your post is. My statement that Tesla presently produces a crossover was in response to cnctoolcat's post where he stated his opinion that Tesla wasn't producing what the public wants to buy: SUV, crossovers, and trucks. Price has nothing to do with either of our posts.

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    The Op should short the big three and long Telsa as this is his belief.
    Running 180 to the market has produced big gains a few times.
    Tesla is the short bet to the market but plenty of money in the wings and perhaps some personal ego here with very big money that you can not discount.
    Problems or hickups as a auto production company and a few wrong turns in production but cubic dollars behind them.

    Autos are the number one or two "cash cows " for fleecing the public. Other being a home which may be less.
    This is not selling pillows, candles, or vacuum cleaners.

    This game is the right people in the right spots at the right time and given the right direction.
    We shall see if this is good money.
    I do wish Tesla to win but just don't see this in the cards or how this can happen without a big internal change.
    The auto industry is a small group of how when and why people.
    Bob

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    "2018-05-12
    Salt Lake City.
    Self driving Tesla hits stationary fire truck at 65mph.
    No indication brakes were applied state police.
    Tesla passenger has broken ankle."

    Tesla shares fall 1.7%
    Nothing can go wrong, go wrong, go wrong, go wrong . . .

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    Quote Originally Posted by tomato coupe View Post
    I'm not sure what the point of your post is. My statement that Tesla presently produces a crossover was in response to cnctoolcat's post where he stated his opinion that Tesla wasn't producing what the public wants to buy: SUV, crossovers, and trucks. Price has nothing to do with either of our posts.
    My point is that you can't compare Tesla to Ford, its apples to foie gras.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    My point is that you can't compare Tesla to Ford,its apples to foie gras.
    Okay, you can’t compare Tesla’s Model X to a Ford Edge, but who cares? You can’t compare a Porsche Cayenne to a Ford Edge either, yet Porsche is doing quite well.

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    The public that wants a Tesla X is not the same public that buys a Ford. The idea that the public doesn't want cars is the wrong premise, the public doesn't want econobox cars, at least not from the big 3. The people buy econo cars wants Japanese or Korean cars.

    Its probably good that GM and Ford decided to exit that market, well more GM than Ford. The 2014+ Cruze, Sonic and Spark are some of the worst cars I have ever seen.

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    Some comments are interesting and some are kind of along what I think.

    I try to explain my motivations .. and reasoning .. that´s why I mention when I refer to interests in the financial markets.
    That´s all- I just try to be honest and transparent.

    Likewise there are cold hard facts related to global materials supply limits.

    E.g.
    There is zero possibility the Big Three can be a major player in BEVs any time soon (under 4-5 years).
    E.g.
    If say Toyota makes 10M cars/yr and needs to make 1M/yr or so to be a big player, the total current global production of precursor materials, namely cadmium, is insufficient to do so.
    (Nickel somewhat, lithium can be scaled up easily on abundant supply.)

    Also - the given fact is that tsla is the nr 1 new employer of manufacturing workers and high tech workers in the US and the western world.
    About 37.000 jobs, +/-, 2018, most of which came in the last 3-4 years.
    And growing about 60% exponential on revenues, a bit less in jobs, y/y.

    Weather tsla succeeds is likely to depend on their battery costs.
    Imo.

    This is because they already seem to be past 8:1:1 lion cell chemistries, and 4x less dependent on current cadmium pricing/ton, by simply needing about 4x less of it per kWh.

    Why does this matter ??
    Because I am pretty sure the transportation market will be disrupted just like the baby-bells // telephones were, and the telco market, and mb/ram/hdd markets were.

    And the PV market has disrupted the global power generation industries.

    In any case I feel we shall see more or less proof of this in about 2-3 months.

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    With or without Tesla, the auto market is going to see more electric vehicles, unless battery technology fails to progress or gets stalled in a trade war with China. They're already more reliable, more efficient, and easier to integrate with modern electronics. Costs are only part-way down the learning curve.

    In most markets it is the top two contenders that are both winners for investors. Seems that Tesla has a shot a becoming one of those winners -- but only if it somehow eliminates most of its manufacturing bottlenecks. Question might be -- who is best positioned to join or replace them among the top two? Anyone follow this?

    Also, still annoying to me that no US supplier has managed to design and build a great (and efficient, versatile) small pickup truck. Surely someone can build something better than the current crop (Tacoma, Colorado, etc.)?

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    ...Also, still annoying to me that no US supplier has managed to design and build a great (and efficient, versatile) small pickup truck. Surely someone can build something better than the current crop (Tacoma, Colorado, etc.)?
    No kidding. The beds are all too short, too tall to load, no fold-down sides, are way too complicated to work on and eat way too much gas. Can't be had with a dump option from the factory, etc, etc.

    Suzuki Carry and other kei-class trucks are one option, though a lot of states refuse to register them. Mitsubishi, Toyota, Nissan and a few others make smallish 4cyl diesel 4wd pickups, just not for sale in the US.

    Seems the most reasonable options are old and/or from elsewhere.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    With or without Tesla, the auto market is going to see more electric vehicles, unless battery technology fails to progress or gets stalled in a trade war with China. They're already more reliable, more efficient, and easier to integrate with modern electronics. Costs are only part-way down the learning curve.

    In most markets it is the top two contenders that are both winners for investors. Seems that Tesla has a shot a becoming one of those winners -- but only if it somehow eliminates most of its manufacturing bottlenecks. Question might be -- who is best positioned to join or replace them among the top two? Anyone follow this?

    Also, still annoying to me that no US supplier has managed to design and build a great (and efficient, versatile) small pickup truck. Surely someone can build something better than the current crop (Tacoma, Colorado, etc.)?
    The old Ford Ranger pickup was very popular with people who wanted a small fuel-efficient pickup. The larger vehicles generally have a higher profit margin so manufacturers prefer to sell them. Years ago U.S. manufacturers stopped producing hatchbacks because they cut into sales of the more profitable SUVs.

    Big issue for Tesla is that they do not make a lower priced EV. The vaunted $35,000 Model 3 is still not available for delivery and some question if it ever will be. Right now several companies produce lower cost BEVs that work well within their range limits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    The old Ford Ranger pickup was very popular with people who wanted a small fuel-efficient pickup. The larger vehicles generally have a higher profit margin so manufacturers prefer to sell them. Years ago U.S. manufacturers stopped producing hatchbacks because they cut into sales of the more profitable SUVs.

    Big issue for Tesla is that they do not make a lower priced EV. The vaunted $35,000 Model 3 is still not available for delivery and some question if it ever will be. Right now several companies produce lower cost BEVs that work well within their range limits.
    Former next-door neighbour had his and hers Toyota Prius hybrids. Complement as daily drivers to a pair of GMC Diesel pickups, Allison trans, that they hauled Airstreams with.

    Soon after they move back to Texas, another neighbour cross the street shows up with no trucks atall, but once again his and hers Prius.

    Hong Kong's mostly Toyota Crown sedan taxi fleet was mandated off Diesel onto LNG several years ago by local law. Conversions if not from new. Now hybrids are replacing those limited-luggage space nuisances at an accelerating pace.

    Tortoise and the hare replayed.

    The "winner" in the markets may never BE "BEV" atall, but better hybrids, rather.

    I'd expect Volskwagen AG to make a stronger move. Nose bloodied by successive Diesel-cheat body-slams? They have the motivation and a pressing need to fill a "hole".

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    Quote Originally Posted by neilho View Post
    No kidding. The beds are all too short, too tall to load, no fold-down sides, are way too complicated to work on and eat way too much gas. Can't be had with a dump option from the factory, etc, etc.

    Suzuki Carry and other kei-class trucks are one option, though a lot of states refuse to register them. Mitsubishi, Toyota, Nissan and a few others make smallish 4cyl diesel 4wd pickups, just not for sale in the US.

    Seems the most reasonable options are old and/or from elsewhere.
    I would love to be able to get one of those small capable trucks here.
    Nope.
    Remember the little Toyota and Datsun pickups?
    Toyota made one with duallies and a 1 1/2 ton rating.
    Perfect.
    The S10 and Ranger were OK too.

    But the really bad ass small trucks everywhere else in the world don’t make it here.
    Not enough Market I guess.
    Gotta be Ram Tough military aluminum professional grade.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    The S10 and Ranger were OK too.
    I've owned one of each (S15 is just an S10 re-badged).

    And yer right.

    What the Giant truck as needs a ladder to get into crowd seem oblivious to is just how much MASS those little mini-brutes could haul because they had small cabs of simple, light single-panel coachwork, and did NOT have a fully-kitted out hoorhouse with home theatre and dining facilities grafted on that et up so damned much PAYLOAD as well as bed length.

    That said, they also had few or NO airbags, and were potential suicide kits in a side-impact if tee-boned, hard.

    There's prolly the main reason we can't seem to git even primitive-simple "1500" series with 8-foot bed and closer to ground-floor elevation even in 2WD-only these days. Collision protection.

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    Fiat/Dodge, Ford and GM make a whole lineup of small diesel pickups- they just dont sell them in the US. Partly because, as mentioned, there is only maybe 800$ profit in one, versus ten grand profit on a fully pimped out F150, which can easily hit 40 grand. And secondly because we have different diesel pollution standards than anywhere else, so there is no economy of scale, making one truck for the world. They make one truck for the rest of the world, and then, a different, bigger, less efficient, more expensive, one for us.
    this complaint is a lot like the old guys who whine that they cant get a stick on on a half ton pickup anymore- and the reason why is, when they made both manual and automatics in domestic pickups, the autos sold at about a 97% rate, versus the sticks. Nobody in their right mind is going to subsidize 3% of the market, to the tune of tens to hundreds of millions of dollars, for nostalgia reasons.
    And no company wants to leave money on the table with small, cheap pickups, either.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    I've owned one of each (S15 is just an S10 re-badged).

    And yer right.

    What the Giant truck as needs a ladder to get into crowd seem oblivious to is just how much MASS those little mini-brutes could haul because they had small cabs of simple, light single-panel coachwork, and did NOT have a fully-kitted out hoorhouse with home theatre and dining facilities grafted on that et up so damned much PAYLOAD as well as bed length.

    That said, they also had few or NO airbags, and were potential suicide kits in a side-impact if tee-boned, hard.

    There's prolly the main reason we can't seem to git even primitive-simple "1500" series with 8-foot bed and closer to ground-floor elevation even in 2WD-only these days. Collision protection.
    I don’t see it.
    If they can make a smart car pass collision standards they can make little trucks.
    Remember the old Japanese trucks came with stock tie down hooks for decades.
    Genuine utility vehicles for smaller places.
    Out west we Do need the bigger trucks as well.

    But most people with a truck out here are compensating for something.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    Fiat/Dodge, Ford and GM make a whole lineup of small diesel pickups- they just dont sell them in the US. Partly because, as mentioned, there is only maybe 800$ profit in one, versus ten grand profit on a fully pimped out F150, which can easily hit 40 grand. And secondly because we have different diesel pollution standards than anywhere else, so there is no economy of scale, making one truck for the world. They make one truck for the rest of the world, and then, a different, bigger, less efficient, more expensive, one for us.
    this complaint is a lot like the old guys who whine that they cant get a stick on on a half ton pickup anymore- and the reason why is, when they made both manual and automatics in domestic pickups, the autos sold at about a 97% rate, versus the sticks. Nobody in their right mind is going to subsidize 3% of the market, to the tune of tens to hundreds of millions of dollars, for nostalgia reasons.
    And no company wants to leave money on the table with small, cheap pickups, either.
    Yep, if someone needs a truck and can get a small cheap one why buy the big stupid one.
    I wonder if you can still get fleet stripped trucks?
    I had a 2000ish dodge 2500 with vinyl mats, crank windows, and an am/fm radio.
    Loved that thing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    Yep, if someone needs a truck and can get a small cheap one why buy the big stupid one.
    I wonder if you can still get fleet stripped trucks?
    I had a 2000ish dodge 2500 with vinyl mats, crank windows, and an am/fm radio.
    Loved that thing.
    Doubt it. MOPAR made a virtual fetish of fleet sales for decades. Oil fields to public utilities to US gov. Eventually someone who could count higher than two pointed out they were "buying" the market to no financial gain.

    Fleet vehicles are just one more low-ender now, and no longer sold as subsidized loss-leaders just to keep lines running and turd-party parts orders in the deep discount range for the money-makers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    .....
    In most markets it is the top two contenders that are both winners for investors. Seems that Tesla has a shot a becoming one of those winners -- but only if it somehow eliminates most of its manufacturing bottlenecks. Question might be -- who is best positioned to join or replace them among the top two? Anyone follow this?

    ....
    Best positioned IMO in order:
    GM, Ford, Toyota, Nissan.
    GM has the longest experience and engineering in place.
    Ford has a big internal push going on.
    Toyota can never be counted out and Nissan has the smaller flexibility along with production know how.

    Herein lays the real rub.
    It is still a very small niche market yet to be proven profitable and everyone is running these vehicles at a loss on the balance sheet.
    If and when there is money to be made the landscape will change and it's hard to see how the Tesla model can take on Toyota. Tesla has maybe gone a bit too far to the automation and trust in computers side and now paying the piper.
    Toyota is more pragmatic and GM and Ford have learned the hard lessons in this balancing act also.

    Sometimes one does not want to be the first in a new field of product. Ask Mits/Altair or IMSAI.
    Out front and the big sellers at first with a long waiting list but now names nobody knows.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    Yep, if someone needs a truck and can get a small cheap one why buy the big stupid one.
    I wonder if you can still get fleet stripped trucks?
    I had a 2000ish dodge 2500 with vinyl mats, crank windows, and an am/fm radio.
    Loved that thing.
    in most cases, you can no longer get the "fleet" trucks one at a time. I ordered a Ford F150 in 2003, Work Truck, which has no chrome, bench seats, windup windows, rubber floor mats- it was much much cheaper than the ones on the lot with leather and mousefur and digital compasses, but Ford discontinued those a long time ago.
    Both Ford and Chevy offer what they call "fleet" trucks- they start around 30 grand for half ton strippers, and go up from there, with cab and chassis available in the mid 30's. Not exactly a cheap stripper. None of the big 3 has offered bench seats, roll up windows, or manual transmissions in half tons for years now.

    I want one of these, myself- I dont need a tesla, but a one ton capacity drop side flat bed that you can parallel park downtown in a standard parking space would be great.
    Fiat Doblo Cargo WORKUP 1.6 DSL DROPSIDE PICKUP 1 TON PAYLOAD

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    in most cases, you can no longer get the "fleet" trucks one at a time. I ordered a Ford F150 in 2003, Work Truck, which has no chrome, bench seats, windup windows, rubber floor mats- it was much much cheaper than the ones on the lot with leather and mousefur and digital compasses, but Ford discontinued those a long time ago.
    Both Ford and Chevy offer what they call "fleet" trucks- they start around 30 grand for half ton strippers, and go up from there, with cab and chassis available in the mid 30's. Not exactly a cheap stripper. None of the big 3 has offered bench seats, roll up windows, or manual transmissions in half tons for years now.

    I want one of these, myself- I dont need a tesla, but a one ton capacity drop side flat bed that you can parallel park downtown in a standard parking space would be great.
    Fiat Doblo Cargo WORKUP 1.6 DSL DROPSIDE PICKUP 1 TON PAYLOAD
    Sigh...


    And HELL yeah on that truck.
    It even has Bluetooth and remote locking.


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