Tesla and EV cars - update and thoughts - Page 34
Close
Login to Your Account
Page 34 of 34 FirstFirst ... 24323334
Results 661 to 676 of 676
  1. #661
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Edison Washington USA
    Posts
    10,279
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    877
    Likes (Received)
    4913

    Default

    When I think of "core skills" in auto industries becoming obsolete- I tend to think more of the changes I have seen in my lifetime.
    there used to be many many auto transmission shops in every town- because an average american automatic needed a rebuild every 50k miles or so, if you were lucky. I had some that were more like every 25k. And clutches lasted a very short time too. I changed a few myself, and paid for more. On some 50s and 60s cars I owned, 20k was considered decent mileage for a clutch.

    Now, I routinely have gotten 200k miles from an auto tranny with zero problems. Clutch technology has vastly improved too.

    There used to be radiator repair shops, and spring shops, all over the place too. I have pulled a few radiators in my time, to have grizzled old guys in half unzipped coveralls, with a cigarette hanging out of their mouths, solder and redip em. I havent needed that on any car I have owned later than about a 1985 model. And I dont know if there even are radiator shops anymore near me- cant think of having seen one in 20 years.

    Similar thing with brakes- my brakes on my last 10 cars or so last a long time, and I havent had to pay for a disc to be turned, much less a drum (remember those?) in decades.

    Tire life is also hugely improved, and flats much rarer.

    I used to have to swap out starters and alternators on a regular basis too, and there were shops in most major cities that rebuilt em.

    Havent done that on a car newer than mid seventies.

    Every carb rebuild shop I remember from my youth is a Ramen bar or Latte place now. Or maybe an internet startup.

    20 odd years ago, I had a spring shop build me custom springs for a foot powered treadle hammer I was building. They are gone now, the building has been something else for a long time. I dont believe there is a single custom spring shop in Western Washington, serving around 3 million people. Nearest one is in Portland.


    None of this is applicable to Tesla somehow changing my world- but dropping radiators, starters, engines, fuel pumps, and a host of other parts from a car will further cut down on the repair shops and jobs that used to be quite common.

    Anyway, we are definitely seeing core skills in auto repair and rebuilding gone, not from the thirties, but from much more recently.

  2. #662
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Geneva Illinois USA
    Posts
    5,232
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    2074
    Likes (Received)
    1946

    Default

    Ries, the skills and businesses you quoted have largely disappeared, not due to the EV movement, but because auto makers can make the parts better. Same can be said about exterior finishes, plastics, elastomers (rubbers), lubricants and lighting. The switch over to electrical energy from chemical will in short time create openings for electronics, motors and perhaps battery repair.

    Manufacturing will loose a lot of foundry and machine shop activity. Reliability should improve due to the fewer number of parts. Shade tree mechanics will find the tree has lost its foliage.

    Tom

  3. #663
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Edison Washington USA
    Posts
    10,279
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    877
    Likes (Received)
    4913

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by TDegenhart View Post
    Ries, the skills and businesses you quoted have largely disappeared, not due to the EV movement, but because auto makers can make the parts better. Same can be said about exterior finishes, plastics, elastomers (rubbers), lubricants and lighting. The switch over to electrical energy from chemical will in short time create openings for electronics, motors and perhaps battery repair.

    Manufacturing will loose a lot of foundry and machine shop activity. Reliability should improve due to the fewer number of parts. Shade tree mechanics will find the tree has lost its foliage.

    Tom
    I believe I said that- but I also think there is truth that as more electric cars are on the road, there will be even less opportunity for people who build, replace, or repair IC engines, trannies, radiators, fuel pumps, and so on.

    so what I am trying to say is that we are in the midst of a fifty year shift from cast and machined metal parts manually assembled, to plastics, carbon fiber, electronics, robotics, and who knows what else.

    Tesla is a waypoint on this journey, as the biggest and most obvious player in the shift from IC cars to Electric ones.

    Technology keeps changing, old skills keep becoming irrelevant.

    But in the auto realm, electric cars are significant, and easily seen, indicator of some major shifts.

    And, after the agreement with the Government, Musk is still CEO, and the factory is still pumping out a few thousand cars a week.

    I just read this week that another very large coal fired electric generating plant in texas are scheduled to shut down, making five in texas alone, for simple economic reasons- they are not cost competitive any more. Meanwhile, GE has been investing billions to buy european companies, and is now making enormous wind generators that will sit on 850 foot towers.

    https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Texas-coal-plant-to-shut-down-by-2020-13255710.php
    G.E. Steps Into Europe’s Offshore Wind Market - The New York Times

    yet more examples of old technologies being phased out, and new jobs popping up elsewhere.
    Coal mining is not coming back.
    And, given current US government policies, GE is dumping all that money, and those jobs, into France, not the USA. Where they pay higher taxes, and higher salaries- but get more access to other government pluses, and evidently, better employees, markets, and infrastructure.

  4. #664
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Modesto, CA USA
    Posts
    6,079
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    0
    Likes (Received)
    923

    Default

    I heard about this on the radio 3 billion dollar pumped storage on the Colorado river at Hoover dam. Makes a lot of sense to locate it there since it is the tallest dam in the USA. The upper storage and generators are already there.
    Not sure how water users will like the idea since it will reduce water outflow. It is a logical sunny place for solar power. Much better then most locations in the USA.
    Bill D.
    Los Angeles considers $3B pumped storage project at Hoover Dam
    | Utility Dive

  5. #665
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Country
    UNITED STATES
    State/Province
    Pennsylvania
    Posts
    12,020
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    18516
    Likes (Received)
    6314

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill D View Post
    I heard about this on the radio 3 billion dollar pumped storage on the Colorado river at Hoover dam. Makes a lot of sense to locate it there since it is the tallest dam in the USA. The upper storage and generators are already there.
    Not sure how water users will like the idea since it will reduce water outflow. It is a logical sunny place for solar power. Much better then most locations in the USA.
    Bill D.
    Los Angeles considers $3B pumped storage project at Hoover Dam
    | Utility Dive
    There is one at nearby Kinzua dam.

    Joe Micheals can better comment on these but IIRC they are more of a "fill it up
    at night" and dump it all the next day during the peak.

    Not a longer term storage, however, this could be much different.

  6. #666
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Modesto, CA USA
    Posts
    6,079
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    0
    Likes (Received)
    923

    Default

    The Kinzu dam is only 179 feet tall. Hoover dam is 726' tall but probably never full to the top. Still about four times taller. I think it took several years for the reservoir to fill up.
    Bill D

  7. #667
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Tucson AZ
    Posts
    6,097
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    8550
    Likes (Received)
    2806

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill D View Post
    I heard about this on the radio 3 billion dollar pumped storage on the Colorado river at Hoover dam. Makes a lot of sense to locate it there since it is the tallest dam in the USA. The upper storage and generators are already there.
    Not sure how water users will like the idea since it will reduce water outflow. It is a logical sunny place for solar power. Much better then most locations in the USA.
    Bill D.
    Los Angeles considers $3B pumped storage project at Hoover Dam
    | Utility Dive
    This has to be the dumbest shit I have ever heard. The reservoir behind the dam, Lake Mead, has not been full since 1983. Pumping water is not free. To get 1 mw of pumped storage will surely cost at least 1.5 mw even without pumping it uphill for another 20 miles. This idea from the assholes that are forcing the closure of Diablo Canyon which is 2200 mw of around the clock , emission free power. The power house at Hoover operates at 20% of nameplate now so where will this magic water come from?

  8. Likes Oldwrench liked this post
  9. #668
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Maryland- USA
    Posts
    2,993
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    1553
    Likes (Received)
    1841

    Default

    Storage scenarios account for inefficiencies.
    I suppose if we wanted to stroll down memory lane fossil fuel creation has dramatic implications for how energy is captured and used.
    Sunlight:biomass:chemical change through photosynthesis:storage:extraction:processing:trans portation:changing that stored chemical energy to useful work by end users...

  10. #669
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Country
    AUSTRALIA
    Posts
    794
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    4
    Likes (Received)
    201

    Default

    Making buyers wait forever for their cars may be a clever strategy........they are telling their friends how lucky they are to be "up" the waiting list,and how great the car will be............once they have the car,the complaining will start,because nothing can meet the expectations of an idealist.....The weight of complaints and horror stories will drag the company down......
    Last edited by john.k; 10-02-2018 at 09:55 PM.

  11. Likes tdmidget liked this post
  12. #670
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Country
    AUSTRALIA
    Posts
    794
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    4
    Likes (Received)
    201

    Default

    Almost unnoticed by the twittering classes are the large numbers of battery electric medium delivery vehicle going into the big fleets from top tier manufacturers like Isuzu,Mitsubishi and Toyota(Hino)....And probably the Euros too,but they dont amount to peanuts here.....Anyhoo,sell to a company fleet,you have continuous maintenance and feedback from a staff of experienced mechanics,operators and executives.....Far more cost effective than Tesla s having to service one broken car in West Lompoc on callout....

  13. Likes TDegenhart liked this post
  14. #671
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    barcelona, spain
    Posts
    2,292
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    464
    Likes (Received)
    1277

    Default

    To update the thread at late october 31, 2018, tsla is now making about 4500 == 18.000 Model 3 cars per month, plus == 10.000 S/X cars.
    Model 3 ASP == 63.000$, S/X == 100.000 $.
    Average gross margins about 20% on S, going to 25%, and 25%++ on S/X.

    In 2017 Tsla made 100.000 cars.
    In 2018, == 250.000 total. 150% y/y exponential increase. This is a blindingly fast increase.
    In 2019, probably 400-450.000 total. == 100% y/y exponential increase. This is a blindingly fast increase.

    Current run-rate is about 360.000 /yr, fwiw.
    It is likely the new china plant will start assembling/making cars late 2019, for the china market.

    So in 2020 it is likely tsla will be making 600-700.000 cars total.This is a blindingly fast increase.
    That would surpass the total BMW 3 series sales globally.

    And the tsla cars are more expensive with higher ASPs vs e.g. the BMW 3 series, and have higher gross margins, incremental.
    And they are "better" cars according to users, since user satisfaction is the highest in the world for Tsla.

    In 2017 in the EU about 17M cars were sold.
    In 2018, about 11 M.
    This is massive disruption. IMO.

    Trucks are not sold in any qty anywhere in the world apart from the USA.
    E. Ford F series trucks sold about 20% globally, 80% in the USA, while the total US auto market is about 17M/90M global per year.

    So the US is under 20% of global auto sales, and the F series trucks were not too important.
    Globally, everyone uses vans or real trucks (needing a C trucking license)- not pickups.


    In late 2018 there are about 400-600 GWh of announced hopeful lion-type battery factories for auto(motive) use.
    With optimistic forecasts production in volume starting around 2021.

    In 2018 there are exactly 2, tsla+GM Bolt, barely 3 (Jaguar I pace), shipping auto battery packs of any real quality and capacity.
    Tesla == 200 Wh/kg energy density.
    Bolt == 190 Wh/kg.
    7 kW bolt home charging. Pathetic.

    The Hyundai Kona is perhaps borderline ok.
    The new 219 Hyundai Kona EV is a clever little electric crossover | Ars Technica
    145 Wh/kg.

    Jaguar I pace.
    146 Wh/kg.
    Jaguar I-PACE | Electric Car Help & FAQ's | Jaguar
    7 kW home charging. Pathetic.
    50 kW fast DC charge. Pathetic. (There are no 100kW DC chargers.)

    There is exactly one company, Tesla, making advanced battery packs with
    1. good home charging of 16 kW+ (22 kW older EU models)
    2. fast 120 kWh+ DC charging, available chargers
    3. 200 Wh/kg + energy density
    4. longevity, proven

    The china AMP and calb and byd make zero advanced lion packs, so far.
    LG is not shipping any advanced battery packs with good density, fast ac charging, and fast dc charging.

    At issue is not that amp, calb, byd, lg etc cannot and will not make/learn the technology, and develop better batteries, cheaper to produce, and make them in large volumes.

    NONE globally ex-tsla are yet shipping the new 8:1:1 chemistry with less cadmium (=cheaper and less toxic and less resource limited).
    (And less nickel. Cheaper.)
    The current tsla Model 3 is already shipping the next-gen chemistry better than 8:1:1 in huge volumes.

    The next-gen pack is already developed and pana is already calibrating production lines to ship the next version of the battery pack around Q1/2019, in 4-5 months.
    Much cheaper to make, according to pana and tsla.

    It takes about 1 year to qualify an auto battery pack, due to aging issues.
    Even for tsla, the world leader, with Jeff Dahn, the worlds nr 1 and only scientist with patents and specialisation in lion aging and qualifying and balancing.

    In the best possible very optimistic case by late 2022 the global manufacturers might have a next-gen chemistry past 8:1:1 ready and qualified for volume motive shipments.
    So the first possible volume shipments would be Q1/2023.

    The problem with volume motive packs is that an auto manufacturer (or lion manufacturer like LG/samsung etc) cannot get it wrong.
    If an auto company is shipping 400k cars/yr at 100 kWh/pack, 100 $/kWh cost (by 2022), an error at year 3 with 800k shipped means eating 800 x 10.000 $ = 8B$ in battery costs - essentially bankrupting the program and the company.

  15. #672
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    near Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia
    Posts
    5,480
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    429
    Likes (Received)
    1943

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post

    Trucks are not sold in any qty anywhere in the world apart from the USA.
    Toyota Hilux alone sold 521 000 worldwide last year. They are not really a truck, but it seems people call them that.

  16. #673
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Edison Washington USA
    Posts
    10,279
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    877
    Likes (Received)
    4913

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by RC99 View Post
    Toyota Hilux alone sold 521 000 worldwide last year. They are not really a truck, but it seems people call them that.
    US pickup sales were more than 5 times that much. And most were what we call "full size" pickups, which are not sold much anywhere else.

    Pickup Truck Sales Breakdown: December 217 - PickupTrucks.com News

  17. #674
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cinci.O
    Posts
    518
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    361
    Likes (Received)
    334

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by RC99 View Post
    Toyota Hilux alone sold 521 000 worldwide last year. They are not really a truck, but it seems people call them that.
    And you can't buy them in the USA. I wish you could, I would love to have a flat bed single cab 2WD model instead of my Tacoma.

  18. #675
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Denver, CO USA
    Posts
    11,889
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    47
    Likes (Received)
    5360

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gewehr 98 View Post
    And you can't buy them in the USA. I wish you could, I would love to have a flat bed single cab 2WD model instead of my Tacoma.
    Me too...as is I’m chasing a gen 4 v6 hilux pickup on the used market.

  19. #676
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Edison Washington USA
    Posts
    10,279
    Post Thanks / Like
    Likes (Given)
    877
    Likes (Received)
    4913

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gewehr 98 View Post
    And you can't buy them in the USA. I wish you could, I would love to have a flat bed single cab 2WD model instead of my Tacoma.
    every time that a japanese company has tried to bring in a 4 banger basic small pickup, the US consumer has responded with-- Crickets. They just dont sell.
    The few Isuzu and other diesel pickups were notorious flops.
    The old Toyota 1 ton compact sold terribly.

    Americans want big, 4wd, V8, leather interiors, and tiny beds.

    They vote with their wallets, and thats what they vote for.

    I know, a few of us like actual work trucks- the same few of us who like manual transmissions. but we are a tiny, tiny minority. over 95% of all us vehicles have automatics. and 95% of all pickup buyers want as big, and as expensive, as they can possibly get. The reason they sell $60000 half tons is because people buy em. And come back for more.

  20. Likes Oldwrench liked this post

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
2