Tesla and EV cars - update and thoughts - Page 40
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  1. #781
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    Life is horrible in Sweden what with free healthcare, clean air and crime levels recently rising to compare to Boise


    ridiculous

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    I do like the concept of a electric car. What seems to me to be obvious is that if I rely on that car to travel a long distance then charging places on the way traveling do become a major issue. Charging time would add travel time. With gasoline and diesel I can now get fuel very easily and quickly and then get right back to traveling with no delay compared to charging the thing.

    In Europe the distances in each country which one would travel seem less on average right? (compared to the size of the US and say Australia) Today on the TV they were looking at the new Dodge Ram pickup. The people described a 12 inch entertainment screen on the front console that people in the back seats of this crew cab truck could watch on any trip. (everyone can see it)

    That could be a distraction. The truck was 36K base!



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    Good chance then charging stations are built on my tax dollars...
    Rebates and Tax Credits for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations


    I remember out in California where some oil company yards had wind mills laying about many likely to end up in a dumpster..likely got some government assistance that made buying them good for the bottom line even if they never set them up. I know I should have taken some photos.

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    Good chance then charging stations are built on my tax dollars...
    Rebates and Tax Credits for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations


    I remember out in California where some oil company yards had wind mills laying about many likely to end up in a dumpster..likely got some government assistance that made buying them good for the bottom line even if they never set them up. I know I should have taken some photos.
    How is it that you suppose things like gasoline pipelines were built?

    Yes your tax dollars get spent on lots of things, shocking I know

    I am going to imagine that the windmills you saw 'laying about' were not 100 ft+ blade modern ones, so they are probably obsolete ones taken down

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    QT gustason [were not 100 ft+ blade modern ones,] True they were the smaller ones but many/most looked never used.

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    I don't know how one tells in CA a used windmill from new......and in CA literally thousands of windmills have been replaced[due to them being a decade ahead of the curve], so it seems so much more likely that they were take downs

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    Tesla raised the funding about 10% and collected about 2.7B$ in cash.
    The deal is closed 9/5/2019.

    The effective rate was about 8%, which is high, but a part of the cost is non-cash in the short term, due to convertible bonds.
    So it somewhat dilutes investors, rather than costing tesla cash coffers, to an extent.

    After building 800M$ in inventory in transit, aka 10.000 cars sold at 55-60k$ each, paid but not collected on,
    and paying off a 920 M$ note in cash,
    the tsla cash went from 3.xB Q1 start to 2B Q1 end.

    At Q2 2019, the cash should be 2B + 2.7B + some margin from the 800M$ in transit cars (that are being recycled in next shipments, so wash),
    plus == 700M$ / yr from Ford for 3 years total 2B in EV credits, about 700M/yr = 170M$/Q,
    so approx 5B$ in cash Q2 end, for tsla, with ongoing cash spend more or less at zero.

    Around 8/2019 we should see the next quarters shipments, numbers, and 10Q.

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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    It will be interesting to see if buying an EV is a one time event..

    EVs Cheap to Run, Expensive to Own—Resale Values to Blame | News | Car and Driver

    Internal Error Here are a few reasons why you might — or might not — want to buy one.
    I'm not (at least yet) in either the hybrid or electric camp. But it doesn't seem to me that fast depreciation will be much of an issue. Large segments of the US market are past the notion that they need a new car every 3 years, maybe bringing back tailfins as the latest fashion. Instead, they (we) buy the car they want, expect it to last at least 10 years or more, and essentially ride it most all the way down the depreciation curve. In that scenario, the far lower operating costs and greater reliability of an electric drive train will offer lower costs.

    Only clinker in that scenario will be if batteries end up dying before 10 years or so and then are massively expensive to replace. My only data point on that is a nephew who bought a used Prius several years ago and is happily driving it on its original battery a dozen years old.

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    Fast depreciation *was* a critical issue last 20 years.
    So was very expensive batteries, last 20 years.
    Was, and were, are critical keywords.

    A winchester hard drive 5MB used to cost 5000$.
    Now 1 TB == 200$-100$.

    If one company, any company, makes very cheap lion batteries of high capacity and very good longevity, then all EV efforts must mostly equal this or die, medium term.
    Since current ev batteries ex-tsla cost 200-300$/kWh, thus == 15.000$ / 65 kWh pack replace.

    Tsla makes batteries around 100$/kWh now, and --20% next gen, --20% + -- 20% future gen, already in testing.
    If tsla (anyone) makes packs of 65 kWh retail at 8000$, the cars with 15.000$ pack costs drop in value, by more than 7000$, mostly to near-zero.

    Just like ram, processors, hdd, pc, gsm, tech. development obsoletes and kills anyone not near the cost-curve top.



    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    I'm not (at least yet) in either the hybrid or electric camp. But it doesn't seem to me that fast depreciation will be much of an issue.

    Large segments of the US market are past the notion that they need a new car every 3 years, maybe bringing back tailfins as the latest fashion. Instead, they (we) buy the car they want, expect it to last at least 10 years or more, and essentially ride it most all the way down the depreciation curve. In that scenario, the far lower operating costs and greater reliability of an electric drive train will offer lower costs.

    Only clinker in that scenario will be if batteries end up dying before 10 years or so and then are massively expensive to replace. My only data point on that is a nephew who bought a used Prius several years ago and is happily driving it on its original battery a dozen years old.

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    10yrs is still under warranty of chevy batteries. I was a little timid before my volt - looked up battery replacement cost, services, mechanics, and whatever other words I could throw in. There are very few 3rd party battery replacement mechanics, if it was common issue then there would be garages everywhere doing it like jasper engines.
    The leaf seems the most likely to degrade dramatically, it is also the only of the big players without a cooling/heating system for the battery, is also used (not sure new model) some homebrew variations for battery control and management.

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    I see that governments are waking up to the fact that the current taxing system of fuel taxes is not viable for electric vehicles. I see requirements of $200/year registration to compensate in force and coming. Illinois is proposing $1000/year!

    Tom

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    Quote Originally Posted by TDegenhart View Post
    I see that governments are waking up to the fact that the current taxing system of fuel taxes is not viable for electric vehicles. I see requirements of $200/year registration to compensate in force and coming. Illinois is proposing $1000/year!

    Tom
    I doubt that is going anywhere, why exactly would you tax maybe 1 percent of the vehicles 3 to 4 times what an average ICE vehicle pays in gas tax?

    When they become a serious market force, I would think a way to replace the gas tax income would be an obvious thing to do

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    I doubt that is going anywhere, why exactly would you tax maybe 1 percent of the vehicles 3 to 4 times what an average ICE vehicle pays in gas tax?

    When they become a serious market force, I would think a way to replace the gas tax income would be an obvious thing to do
    Because there is money in them thar hills don'tca know?

    Tom

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    I doubt that is going anywhere, why exactly would you tax maybe 1 percent of the vehicles 3 to 4 times what an average ICE vehicle pays in gas tax?

    When they become a serious market force, I would think a way to replace the gas tax income would be an obvious thing to do
    Yes the problem becomes that gas tax pays to build and maintain roads.
    If we switch to a higher level electric fleet where do those dollars come from as they will still be needed.
    At the moment such escaping the paying for the infrastructure (read roads) is a freebie to electric.
    That free ride can not continue forever as the shift occurs. That tax revenue must be made up somewhere or somehow.
    At what point do you find another way to provide funding? Is it too early?

    Gasoline tax here in the US is nothing compared to overseas. Some see this ICE price add on as the way EVs will become the way to go.
    Who, how and when will this lost revenue get picked up?
    Bob

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    At least 20 states have already passed special taxes on electric cars to compensate for the lack of a gas tax.
    So the problem is already being addressed.
    The amount varies, but its usually a flat yearly fee.

    If gas tax varies from twelve cents a gallon to 58 cents a gallon, (although average US gas tax is only a quarter) and the average driver drives 13,500 miles a year, and the average US car gets 24.7 MPG
    then the average gas engine car owner is paying between $65 and $316, depending on which state they live in.
    (13,500 / 24.7 = 546 Gallons per year, times .12 or .58)

    Current electric car road taxes vary between $50 and $200 per year. In the same basic range as gas tax, unless you live in Pennsylvania. My guess is that the road tax will be adjusted, as there are more electric cars, to more or less replace the old gas tax revenue. Obviously, not everybody drives an average amount, and, if needed, I have no doubt that State Legislatures will raise the electric road tax as needed.

    17 states have passed extra fees on electric cars; is that fair?
    Electric Vehicle Road Usage Fees

    In basic theory, though, these 20 states are already doing just what you guys are worried about- charging electric cars equivalent amounts to what IC cars pay in gas tax. And, at $200, thats double the average amount an IC car pays- so they are thinking ahead, and, already, charging electric cars MORE. There are still some "freebie" states, but dont expect that to last long.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    The truck was 36K base!
    you do realize that the average price of a new car (not truck, they are more) in the USA today is $36,000?
    So half of american car buyers, which last year were 17 million plus, pay $36k OR MORE. Thats 8 1/2 million people last year who spent at least 36k.

    36K is a stripper for a new pickup- its usually almost impossible around here to find a new one on the lot that cheap. The average price paid for a Pickup last year in the USA was around $48k, and thats before interest.
    And remember, "average" means half the people are paying $48 k OR MORE. Often, a lot more.

    I live in the past, too- my last new pickup cost about $22k. Still driving it, but its a 2003. Fifteen years makes a difference.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spirit
    In Europe the distances in each country which one would travel seem less on average right? (compared to the size of the US and say Australia)
    According to the ABS data over here at the last census, the vast bulk of journeys are under 20km ~ 12 miles, which would be ideal EV journeys.

    You'll never dissuade the people here (or probably there) who buy a Canyonaro with long range tanks, snorkel and fridge solely for a once in a blue moon flog up to Cape York or the Bungles, that they'd be better off not enduring one day-in, day-out for that very occasional trip however!

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    QT:In basic theory, though, these 20 states are already doing just what you guys are worried about- charging electric cars equivalent amounts to what IC cars pay in gas tax. And, at $200, thats double the average amount an IC car pays- so they are thinking ahead, and, already, charging electric cars MORE. There are still some "freebie" states, but dont expect that to last long.

    I figure the gas tax about 4 1/2 cents a mile and that would put electric at around 8 cents a mile (with adding the tax) and gas cars about 15-16 cents a mile (as it is now)..

    I'm fine with that and wish the best to electric car users/buyers... But don't use my tax money to buy or support somebody's car.. If they can't afford their own car they should walk.

    I even tolerate those dopes who go 5 or 10 under the limit and so hit every light red so we all waste gas.

    Agree likely we will all be driving electrics in a number of years, and all paying for our own car.

    Likely all the left over fossil fuel will be shipped to China for free on our tax dollar, so they can still make all the smoke they wish and keep all the manufacturing jobs.

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    Most thought is on a per km charge based on a GPS taxing system......but here that is only to replace the excise levied by the federal govt..........the state has additional fees for yearly license fee varying from $250 for a motorbike (includes 3 party insurance) up to around $10,000 for a 120 ton rated prime mover.(includes $1200p/a third party.)......the states have variously tried sneaky ways to levy a truck road tax,but struck down by the 1954 Hughes and Vale Decision.,and subsequent cases.


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