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  1. #801
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    ....

    In basic theory, though, these 20 states are already doing just what you guys are worried about- charging electric cars equivalent amounts to what IC cars pay in gas tax. And, at $200, thats double the average amount an IC car pays- so they are thinking ahead, and, already, charging electric cars MORE. There are still some "freebie" states, but dont expect that to last long.
    The feds take $0.18, my state wants (or needs) to take another $0.45 so 63 cents and people are crying at the thought.
    An average tool salesman drives 70,000 miles per year at lets say 30MPG so 1500 dollars which is not a bad hit if on your EV or IC.
    In Spain the tax is a bit higher. $2.35+ per gallon.
    That is over $5000 per year for your salesman so now that EV looks so much better. Add in other incentives and there they look like the magic cure all if you do not balance the books.
    This difference leads to different views as to how, if and when this all plays out.
    EVs are here, this is likely the lowest cost in time to run one in many places.
    They are now big enough that the economy of scale has sort of hit that top end of the curve, huge gains are not going to be seen without some new undiscovered tech.

    The moving vehicle industry from LA to Europe to the out-lands in India or Africa is complicated by so many factors so place your bets.
    My guess is that change is coming but there will be no free lunch.

    The consumer will ante up just like a new cell phone. There seems to be no end to this price curve.
    People will pay 1000 for a telephone plus fees... who'd of thought that 60 years back?

    All our new tech point to pay for use where In fact every road or street becomes a tollway.
    Places like Europe are going to have a larger problem to resolve. Addicted to the tax revenue a bigger hole to fill as the change happens.
    Bob

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    Any charge for electric at state level here is relatively simple .....as fees are already assessed on engine size and capacity,and such engines as a Wankel have an arbitrary rating ,but as the states dont directly raise revenue from fuel taxes,and considering the current tendency of politicians to pander to the green /millenial vote, extra state fees are unlikely......but no state fees for electric are equally unlikely....Free charging stations are also self limiting cost wise ,as only one car can charge ,taking X time ,so will the rest be happy to wait for hours?

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    I looked into Diesel road taxes in New Zealand for my Nephew when he moved there. He was thinking diesel is more fuel efficient, thus cheaper to run. In NZ for a diesel car or truck they charge a standard license plate fee. Plus you have to buy a road tax certificate in 5000Km? increments. If you get caught going over the distance purchased there is a big fine, thousands. I think this was set up years ago on the theory that all diesels where heavy commercial vehicles that damaged the road base.
    I have no idea how often they check your odometer.
    Bill D.

  4. #804
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    Multiple issues in these threads..
    yes, EVs have had and do have heavy support in easement of taxes, globally.

    But lower additional marginal taxes is not cash support to the auto maker.
    It is an incentive, and the lower direct taxes may bring and do bring lower costs in less imported oil and oil infra, per car lifetime, to the national economy.
    A gas car with terminal lifespan of 200.000 km / 5 l/100 km = 10.000 l of fuel, == 20.000 l of oil extracted.
    Saves == 0.30€ / l in imports, or == 6000€ to the national economy.

    An EV car is about 5x more efficient than an ice car,
    in cash (oecd avg fuel of 1.2€/l globally),
    in technical efficiency,
    in pollution (centralised scrubbed exhausts far from population vs near popula).

    A 70 l modern sedan with 30Mj theoretical energy / kg of fuel delivers about 5-6x less range by power than a 100 kWh Tesla S.
    Both lose about 50% of theoretical power in the long-tail extraction and delivery of the power to the car, the electric maybe 10-15% less.

    More efficient by 500% is a big deal, when the national economy uses about 17% of GDP in oil/gas/power-
    the US is about 1/3 autos, 1/3 military, 1/3 less, for o&g consumed.

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    A lot of the fuel not needed by an EV is diverted to generating electricity to fuel the EV.

    Tom

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    The prices of EV s will rapidly fall once Chinese imports establish in the market.........as of now,Chinese IC imports are effectively locked out by the emissions laws ,specially designed to lock out third world cars,and to some extent by soon to expire patents protection (that the Chinese ignore)...........however ,the euro makers will need to dream up some new reason to exclude Chinese and Indian production ev from their markets.

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    Not a problem, Trump will just impost a crippling tariff.

    Tom

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    "A lot of the fuel not needed by an EV is diverted to generating electricity to fuel the EV."

    Not quite. You might think that we still use oil to make electricity in the US but practically zero oil in the US is used to make electricity. Hawaii does and their electricity rates are very high. Look at this chart and note the amount of other sources besides coal and gas. Wind is a substantial amount of the grid now and increasing.

    LLNL Flow Charts

    Also, it is very efficient to make electricity in a plant. Think heat losses.

    Also, my electric car charges the battery back up when braking or going down hill. There is also zero routine maintenance.

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    Dont think so....the EV revolution is timed for full frontal assault in 2022,and the white haired one will be back to his hobbies fulltime by then.

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    Not really coming in 2022.
    Apart from tesla and the chinese, exactly zero real *major* effort is being made in ev autos by the big auto companies, 4 in the US, VW, and toyota.

    VW "talks" of maybe 200.000 per year capacity in their new production lines, now under construction.
    And deliveries starting 2020, more or less.
    Some deliveries.
    2% of their production.
    Maybe.

    If VW actually was to make 200.000 "good" or compelling EV cars in 2020, at around 75 kWh batteries each, it would need battery capacity similar to tesla in 2018, around 250k cars x 75 kWh == 18 GWh / year or more.
    x four times more cobalt than tesla used in 2018, due to best-case 8:2:2 chemistries (now shipping) from LG or samsung.
    There is not enough global cobalt supply for 4x tesla use in 2018, at any price.
    Cobalt supply can be scaled, but will take years.

    Tesla spent somewhere around 1B$ - 1.5B$ in 2018 in advanced lion batteries, on == 20B$ auto revenue, 250k cars.
    == 5-10% of revenue.

    If VW, Toyota, GM or anyone wants to get 2B$ of batteries from LG or Samsung or anyone, they will need to make firm orders for n years x 2B$ each that will show up on 10Qs.
    LG et al will need to build much bigger factories, and this takes time and money and client commitments in cash $ to very high volumes.

    At this time chinese calb and ameperx and byd are scaling up about 100% exponential capacity, 12-18 month cycle.
    So is tesla.
    All 4 are growing their lead to traditional big auto and their parts suppliers, fast.

    In the meantime, Big Auto cannot make up their minds to finally put in the money and make a real push for EV relevance.
    Big Auto is crazy, and keeps using ostrich management (tm) with head-in-sand, still.
    EU EV sales are 2.3%, china is 5.8%.

    Within 2 cycles of 12-18 months, the EV/NEV will be 10-20% EU/china and only the EV tech leaders and volume leaders will be relevant.
    It takes about 2 years to make a new big greenfield factory, and about 2 years to qualify a big ev battery.

    Quote Originally Posted by john.k View Post
    Dont think so....the EV revolution is timed for full frontal assault in 2022,and the white haired one will be back to his hobbies fulltime by then.

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    Yet another thing to consider is if the EV lasts 10 years and the Gas powered lasts 15 years the manufacturing energy and materials difference consumed by EV out weigh any savings in the quest for being green from the use of one over the other.
    I expect some day EVs will be the norm but our current efforts are not well founded IMHO.

    But all this green effort does make some people feed good...

  12. #812
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    Quote Originally Posted by laminar-flow View Post
    "A lot of the fuel not needed by an EV is diverted to generating electricity to fuel the EV."

    Not quite. You might think that we still use oil to make electricity in the US but practically zero oil in the US is used to make electricity. Hawaii does and their electricity rates are very high. Look at this chart and note the amount of other sources besides coal and gas. Wind is a substantial amount of the grid now and increasing.

    LLNL Flow Charts

    Also, it is very efficient to make electricity in a plant. Think heat losses.

    Also, my electric car charges the battery back up when braking or going down hill. There is also zero routine maintenance.
    I don't think you actually looked at the data in the LLNL report. Electric power generation effeciency with all sources combined is only 36.6% effecient. That is with wind, solar, and geothermal included.

    Wind power is only 6.5% of the total electric power produced which is close to the amount hydro produced at 7.04% of the total.

    The total sum efficiency of transportation is 21.0% efficient. This is a worst case sum of all inefficiencies.

    By the time you add up all of the efficiency losses in getting power to the plug on your EV, its real efficiency is quite close to the average ICE efficiencies produced today.

    So, yes the EV utilizes energy more efficiently per mile driven however the total of the energy losses to get the energy into the EV puts you right back at where the ICE efficiencies are.

    There is no magic panacea here except to come up with technologies which reduce the grid losses and that is a very complex problem to solve. A lot of this requires working around the laws of physics with new approaches and yet at the same time function with the current grid technology.

  13. #813
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    ^^And this doesn't take into account the long term investment in generating and distribution facilities. From a distance, everything looks rosy and peachy-keen until you look at the myriad of details.

    Tom

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    I was quite skeptical before I drove a Leaf also. But after buying a used one I realized just how good of a solution it is for local / regional driving. It cost about the same as drying a load of clothes to charge the 40 miles we use it a day. The demand on the grid is not an issue from what I can see. The increase on electrical usage because of increasing EV's will be slow. And the electric companies would be delighted to ever have to increase capacity. But with the increasing efficiency of other household electrical items, It may end up being a non-issue. They really are cheap to charge.***

    Our charger is a 220 20 amp which charges at a rate of 20 miles per hour (about $200 new) and perfect for home. All the chargers at grocery stores, hardware stores, and public parking in our area are 220 40 amp(40 miles per hour rate) and it is so cheap that I have not run across one that charges for the charge yet.

    The Leaf gets 4.5 miles per kWh so you can look at your electricity rate and see your cost per mile. This does not include a battery replacement whenever that may be, but also keep in mind there is no oil changes, filters, belts, fluids, etc. Nothing in the car gets hot so there should be no failures due to thermal cycling.

    Who said EV's only last 10 years?


    *** (below are two bogus emails that has been sent around about EV's) It is full of mis-information with one really big one. Has any one ever had something similar sent to them?

    ------------------------

    As a "joke", my Chev dealer gave me a Volt as a loaner while my full-size pick-up was getting some attention. He thought it was funny to give his energy company CEO this thing here on Vancouver Island! I live 30 kilometers outside of Victoria near Sidney.

    The battery was dead - later he admitted they almost never charged it. While the car was "OK", on gasoline, it was pretty anemic. So for the extra money, even taking into account Chev rebates and Provincial incentives, you get an under-powered, heavy car that felt "too small" for its actual size (battery has to go somewhere).

    Now the kicker: at a neighborhood barbecue, I was talking to a Neighbor, a BC Hydro executive. I asked him how that renewable thing was doing. He laughed, then got serious. If you really intend to adopt electric vehicles, he pointed out, you had to face certain realities. For example, a home charging system for a Tesla requires 75 amp service.


    The average house is equipped with 100 amp service. On our small street (approximately 25 homes), the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than 3 houses with a single Tesla, each. For even half the homes to have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly over-loaded.

    This is the elephant in the room with electric vehicles ... Our residential infrastructure cannot bear the load. So as our genius elected officials ram this nonsense down our collective throats, not only are we being forced to buy the damn things and replace our reliable, cheap generating systems with expensive, new windmills and solar cells, but we will also have to renovate our entire delivery system! This latter "investment" will not be revealed until we're so far down this dead end road that it will be presented with an oops and a shrug.

    If you want to argue with a green person over cars that are Eco-friendly, just read the below:

    Note: However, if you ARE the green person, read it anyway. Enlightening.

    Eric test drove the Chevy Volt at the invitation of General Motors...and he writes...For four days in a row, the fully charged battery lasted only 25 miles before the Volt switched to the reserve gasoline engine.

    Eric calculated the car got 30 mpg including the 25 miles it ran on the battery. So, the range including the 9 gallon gas tank and the 16 kWh battery is approximately 270 miles.


    It will take you 4 1/2 hours to drive 270 miles at 60 mph. Then add 10 hours to charge the battery and you have a total trip time of 14.5 hours. In a typical road trip your average speed (including charging time) would be 20 mph.


    According to General Motors, the Volt battery holds 16 kWh of electricity. It takes a full 10 hours to charge a drained battery. The cost for the electricity to charge the Volt is never mentioned so I looked up what I pay for electricity. I pay approximately (it varies with amount used and the seasons) $1.16 per kWh. 16 kWh x $1.16 per kWh = $18.56 to charge the battery.

    $18.56 per charge divided by 25 miles = $0.74 per mile to operate the Volt using the battery. Compare this to a similar size car with a gasoline engine that gets only 32 mpg. $3.19 per gallon divided by 32 mpg = $0.10 per mile.


    The gasoline powered car costs about $15,000 while the Volt costs $46,000.........So the American Government wants proud and loyal Americans not to do the math, but simply pay 3 times as much for a car, that costs more than 7 times as much to run, and takes 3 times longer to drive across the country.....

    --------------------------

    Canadian Press Comments on Electric Vehicles – Interesting!

    It looks like the "Greenies" in the American Government want loyal Americans NOT to do the math, but simply pay three times as much for a car, that costs more than seven times as much to run, and takes three times longer to drive across the country.
    It would seem that if electric cars do not use gasoline, they will not participate in paying gasoline tax on every gallon that is sold for automobiles, which was enacted some years ago to help to maintain your roads and bridges. They will use the roads, but will not pay for their maintenance!

    Ever since the advent of electric cars, the REAL cost per mile has never been discussed. All you ever hear is the mpg in terms of gasoline, with no mention of the cost of electricity.

    Electricity has to be one of the least efficient ways to power cars, yet it is being shoved down your throats. Glad somebody finally put engineering and math to paper.

    A British Columbia Hydro executive was quoted as saying: "If you really intend to adopt electric vehicles, you have to face certain realities. For example, a home charging system for a Tesla requires 75 amp service. Many houses are equipped with only 100 amp service. On a small street (approximately 25 homes), the electrical infrastructure would be unable to carry more than three houses with a Tesla. If even half the homes have electric vehicles, the system would be wildly over-loaded."

    This is the elephant in the room with electric vehicles. Your residential infrastructure cannot bear the load. So as your genius elected officials promote this nonsense, not only are you being urged to buy these things and replace your reliable, cheap generating systems with expensive, new windmills and solar cells, but you will also have to renovate your entire delivery system! This latter "investment" will not be revealed until you're so far down this dead end road that it will be presented with an 'OOPS!' and a shrug.

    A man named Eric test drove the Chevy Volt at the invitation of General Motors and he writes, "For four days in a row, the fully charged battery lasted only 25 miles before the Volt switched to the reserve gasoline engine." Eric calculated the car got 30 mpg including the 25 miles it ran on the battery. So, the range including the 9-gallon gas tank and the 16 kwh battery is approximately 270 miles.

    It will take you 4.5 hours to drive 270 miles at 60 mph. Then add 10 hours to charge the battery and you have a total trip time of 14.5 hours. In a typical road trip your average speed (including charging time) would be 20 mph.

    According to General Motors, the Volt battery holds 16 kwh of electricity. It takes a full 10 hours to charge a drained battery. The cost for the electricity to charge the Volt is never mentioned. If you pay approximately (it varies with amount used and the seasons) $1.16 per kwh. 16 kwh x $1.16 per kwh = $18.56 to charge the battery. $18.56 per charge divided by 25 miles = $0.74 per mile to operate the Volt using the battery. Compare this to a similar size car with a gasoline engine that gets only 32 mpg. $3.19 per gallon divided by 32 mpg = $0.10 per mile.

    The gasoline powered car costs about $20,000 while the Volt costs $46,000 plus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by laminar-flow View Post

    According to General Motors, the Volt battery holds 16 kwh of electricity. It takes a full 10 hours to charge a drained battery. The cost for the electricity to charge the Volt is never mentioned. If you pay approximately (it varies with amount used and the seasons) $1.16 per kwh. 16 kwh x $1.16 per kwh = $18.56 to charge the battery. $18.56 per charge divided by 25 miles = $0.74 per mile to operate the Volt using the battery. Compare this to a similar size car with a gasoline engine that gets only 32 mpg. $3.19 per gallon divided by 32 mpg = $0.10 per mile.

    The gasoline powered car costs about $20,000 while the Volt costs $46,000 plus.
    I am not going to go after most of the hoo ha in this post, but this last bit

    $1.16 per kwh?

    Where do you live?

    I am under .21 per kwh, delivered, 3.36 to fill up , per your numbers. 13.4 cents per mile, per your numbers


    please at least try to be accurate.

    The average car does not cost 20k, and the volt starts at 33k

  16. #816
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    ^^Your costs are now. States are waking up to the issue that EV drivers are getting a free ride. They are not paying their share of road and bridge costs. What and how they will be is up in the air.

    Tom

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    Hey, let's get one thing correct. I did not write these two bogus emails. They were sent to me!

    Yes, you got the big one. They moved the decimal on the electric rate. Our rate in WA state is $.07 kWh. 85% hydro.

    Tom, we paid almost as much in road tax than in electricity to drive the car last year. $150 per year road tax and we calculated about $160 for the year in electricity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by laminar-flow View Post
    Hey, let's get one thing correct. I did not write these two bogus emails. They were sent to me!

    Yes, you got the big one. They moved the decimal on the electric rate. Our rate in WA state is $.07 kWh. 85% hydro.

    Tom, we paid almost as much in road tax than in electricity to drive the car last year. $150 per year road tax and we calculated about $160 for the year in electricity.
    Sorry if I misunderstood, but your post is too dense to understand what is going on there

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    Michigan average Kwh is about 10 cents.

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    Quote Originally Posted by laminar-flow View Post
    Hey, let's get one thing correct. I did not write these two bogus emails. They were sent to me!
    .
    Very weird emails and just so wrong and I got how you thought so.
    How did you get them? I don't think the mentioned Eric is playing with a full deck as my test drive of Volts are not even in his world.
    But it must be true because it's on the internet.....
    Tall tails on both sides of this which makes it hard to sort out any real facts.
    One wants to hear from owners of a Leaf or such that don't bias their real world experience but just say this is what I have, this is what it does, and I like or do not like it this part.
    If it is all good or all bad I wonder or stop reading as everything in life has some warts.
    Bob


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