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  1. #1041
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    Quote Originally Posted by michiganbuck View Post
    The world air quality shows the USA being very clean..We can throw /waste money to make out country clean and the high dirty area place just get worse because we lose the manufacturing to them..So some of out solution just makes the world dirtier ..perhaps some of this is being stupid..

    Again, the motivating factor will be cost, not "cleanliness".
    The shift to solar, wind, and geothermal, along with tidal eventually, will come not because it requires wasting money, but ONLY if it saves money.
    Which it is starting to, more and more, depending on local factors.

    And Wind is cheaper than coal, electric cars are cheaper than gas, in many places right now, and all the costs, and efficiencies of scale are trending towards renewable energy sources and electric cars. Coal mining in the USA is dying because the demand is falling- and the demand is falling because there are cheaper alternatives.
    Big utilities arent going to throw money just to keep a few thousand hillbillies buying new pickups. Of course, one of the biggest competitors to coal right now is natural gas- but it still means coal mines are closing, and they arent coming back.
    Coal bankruptcies: The first coal mine to open in Wyoming is in danger of closing - CBS News

    One little war in the middle east, and before you know it, oil is suddenly ten or twenty or fifty bucks more a barrel.
    Whereas the wind in Texas just keeps blowing, oblivious to fighting in the gulf.
    And it doesnt matter if we pump that oil in Texas- those Texas boys are smart enough to charge global oil prices, no matter how patriotic they are- so if world prices go up, US pumped oil and gas prices go up to, and Texas wind generated electricity is an even cheaper choice.

    We certainly have lost manufacturing to places with lax pollution laws- but everybody gets tired of breathing smog eventually- they have started to use capital punishment on polluters in China these days, due to the public being fed up.
    Eventually, they will run out of places that will look the other way when you dump acid in their streams and put poisons in the air.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    Again, the motivating factor will be cost, not "cleanliness".
    The shift to solar, wind, and geothermal, along with tidal eventually, will come not because it requires wasting money, but ONLY if it saves money.
    Which it is starting to, more and more, depending on local factors.

    And Wind is cheaper than coal, electric cars are cheaper than gas, in many places right now, and all the costs, and efficiencies of scale are trending towards renewable energy sources and electric cars. Coal mining in the USA is dying because the demand is falling- and the demand is falling because there are cheaper alternatives.
    Big utilities arent going to throw money just to keep a few thousand hillbillies buying new pickups. Of course, one of the biggest competitors to coal right now is natural gas- but it still means coal mines are closing, and they arent coming back.
    Coal bankruptcies: The first coal mine to open in Wyoming is in danger of closing - CBS News

    One little war in the middle east, and before you know it, oil is suddenly ten or twenty or fifty bucks more a barrel.
    Whereas the wind in Texas just keeps blowing, oblivious to fighting in the gulf.
    And it doesnt matter if we pump that oil in Texas- those Texas boys are smart enough to charge global oil prices, no matter how patriotic they are- so if world prices go up, US pumped oil and gas prices go up to, and Texas wind generated electricity is an even cheaper choice.

    We certainly have lost manufacturing to places with lax pollution laws- but everybody gets tired of breathing smog eventually- they have started to use capital punishment on polluters in China these days, due to the public being fed up.
    Eventually, they will run out of places that will look the other way when you dump acid in their streams and put poisons in the air.
    One big issue those predicting the demise of petroleum tend to ignore is all the other products that derive from petroleum. I was told by an insider years ago that the most profitable output of a cracking tower was not the stuff we usually think of but some very specific products that are very high value in small quantities but unknown to most people outside of the chemical industry.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    One big issue those predicting the demise of petroleum tend to ignore is all the other products that derive from petroleum. I was told by an insider years ago that the most profitable output of a cracking tower was not the stuff we usually think of but some very specific products that are very high value in small quantities but unknown to most people outside of the chemical industry.
    again- who said "demise"?

    certainly not me.

    I said, as renewable electricity becomes cheaper, people will use it more.

    And, there may be a time when its not worth rebuilding a refinery for the umpteenth time, if the demand is not there.

    But petroleum is, indeed, used for all kinds of stuff. In fact, they crack Argon, which I use for welding, from natural gas, if the demand is there to justify the equipment.
    I expect we may see a decrease in using oil to make disposable plastic packaging, but the feedstock for a lot of plastics is becoming more valuable than gasoline in some cases- one of the refineries near me (there are 2 within 10 miles, and 2 more within 30 miles)- is building an enormous addition to produce plastics feedstock. This would not be in addition to the existing gas/diesel production they do- it would be subtracted from it. They can only bring so many gallons a day in by their existing pipeline and tanker dock.

    so, sure, petroleum products will continue- but electric cars could also, easily rise to be 30% or 40% of the cars on the road in america without endangering my Marvel Mystery Oil or my polyureathane foam shoes.

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    We are primitives.
    Essentially still huddled by the fire burning things.

    It will be a blessing when we stop burning fossil fuels.
    Good riddance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    ... the feedstock for a lot of plastics is becoming more valuable than gasoline in some cases- one of the refineries near me (there are 2 within 10 miles, and 2 more within 30 miles)- is building an enormous addition to produce plastics feedstock.
    A friend of mine owned a rope factory. Their profits were entirely determined by the price of oil. This was over thirty years ago.

    It's kind of dumb to use petroleum for powering leaf blowers and driving the pickup three blocks to the 7-11.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    again- who said "demise"?

    certainly not me.

    I said, as renewable electricity becomes cheaper, people will use it more.

    And, there may be a time when its not worth rebuilding a refinery for the umpteenth time, if the demand is not there.

    But petroleum is, indeed, used for all kinds of stuff. In fact, they crack Argon, which I use for welding, from natural gas, if the demand is there to justify the equipment.
    I expect we may see a decrease in using oil to make disposable plastic packaging, but the feedstock for a lot of plastics is becoming more valuable than gasoline in some cases- one of the refineries near me (there are 2 within 10 miles, and 2 more within 30 miles)- is building an enormous addition to produce plastics feedstock. This would not be in addition to the existing gas/diesel production they do- it would be subtracted from it. They can only bring so many gallons a day in by their existing pipeline and tanker dock.

    so, sure, petroleum products will continue- but electric cars could also, easily rise to be 30% or 40% of the cars on the road in america without endangering my Marvel Mystery Oil or my polyureathane foam shoes.
    You are being reasonable and realistic. Some others, not so much.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    We are primitives.
    Essentially still huddled by the fire burning things.

    It will be a blessing when we stop burning fossil fuels.
    Good riddance.
    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    A friend of mine owned a rope factory. Their profits were entirely determined by the price of oil. This was over thirty years ago.

    It's kind of dumb to use petroleum for powering leaf blowers and driving the pickup three blocks to the 7-11.
    I hope I’m no longer around the day that these fuels disappear. Even as battery operated and plug in electric devices become more capable I suspect it will be a long time before battery operated devices can truly compete with conventional fuels for heavy duty uses.
    `
    I own a cordless string trimmer. It’s great for routine trimming but there are still a couple of situations where I need the extended operating time of my corded electric model and for the occasional heavy use nothing can compare to the power of my gas powered trimmer.

    I own not one but 2 corded leaf blowers. One is also a leaf vac. Neither has the power of my gas powered one so no, it’s not “kind of dumb to use petroleum for powering leaf blowers”.

    As for pickup trucks, while I don’t own one I know plenty who do. Some get used for serious work, in one case a heavy duty tool body model with a large tank of diesel and an electric (12 volt) pump for refueling heavy construction equipment. And I don’t think most of us will live long enough to see the day when a battery can power bulldozers, front end loaders, and excavators for a full day of very heavy work.

    Another uses his pickup in a landscaping business and for occasional hunting trips where he drives hundreds of miles and parks in remote locations for days, with at most a 10 minute stop to refuel.

    And personally I am “still huddled by the fire burning things.” My house is heated by oil and I have no plans to change. My current oil burner is very efficient and burns so clean it leaves only a very fine ash instead of the sooty black deposits of the old one. A neighbor replaced natural gas heat with an exotic heat pump system that was extremely expensive. He later regretted it. The same neighbor bought a state of the art electric mower. I forget the brand but it was the best that could be had. After a couple incidents like forgetting to charge the battery in winter and plowing through 2 weeks of growth after a period of heavy rain he eventually sold it and bought another gas powered one.

    My hot water is heated with natural gas and I cook with it as well. We’ve been through several power outages over the years and enjoyed hot water and hot food while neighbors with electric stuff did without.

    I’ve got no problem with the scenario described by Ries, and others can adopt this “green” technology all they want. All I and many others demand is that such adoption be voluntary and the rest of us shouldn’t be forced to pay for it with subsidies and free use of roads paid for with fuel taxes. You are entitled to your own “religious” beliefs but they won’t be forced on the rest of us who are "climate change heretics”.

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    “You are being reasonable and realistic. Some others, not so much.”

    Realistic is a interesting term.
    Remind me again how much “abiotic oil” has been extracted.

    We are literally ‘burning’ through finite petroleum reserves.
    The vast majority are used to extract chemical energy through combustion.
    This use is accessible but inefficient in terms of potential molecular energy and the capture of its byproducts to do useful work.
    It is ‘burning’ a product that has many other uses to society.

    We are in the petroleum age.
    It is a certainty that we will leave it.
    The resource will diminish to the point of not being able to sustain our uses at the current utilization efficiencies and our technology will advance to the point where combustion will be as deep an anachronism as “huddling by the fire”.

    It would benefit essentially everyone if that time had already arisen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    “You are being reasonable and realistic. Some others, not so much.”

    Realistic is a interesting term.
    Remind me again how much “abiotic oil” has been extracted.

    We are literally ‘burning’ through finite petroleum reserves.
    The vast majority are used to extract chemical energy through combustion.
    This use is accessible but inefficient in terms of potential molecular energy and the capture of its byproducts to do useful work.
    It is ‘burning’ a product that has many other uses to society.

    We are in the petroleum age.
    It is a certainty that we will leave it.
    The resource will diminish to the point of not being able to sustain our uses at the current utilization efficiencies and our technology will advance to the point where combustion will be as deep an anachronism as “huddling by the fire”.

    It would benefit essentially everyone if that time had already arisen.
    While it may be true that we eventually exhaust supplies of "fossil fuels" it won't happen tomorrow and probably not within the lifetime of anyone alive today. It may become more difficult to extract and therefore more expensive but at that point I expect consumption will have declined anyway through market forces and improved efficiencies. I agree technology will advance and when those technologies are mature enough they will displace much of the older technology. Some, such as heavy shipping by sea, air travel, and heavy construction will likely suckle on the petroleum teat far longer than the futurists are predicting today.

    Your comment that "It would benefit essentially everyone if that time had already arisen" is essentially fantasy speculation. Not only is the technology not yet there to support "zero carbon" but for some uses such as heavy equipment and others it is likely a lifetime away. The laws of physics can't be broken, no matter how much idealists wish it were so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    again- who said "demise"?

    certainly not me.

    I said, as renewable electricity becomes cheaper, people will use it more.

    And, there may be a time when its not worth rebuilding a refinery for the umpteenth time, if the demand is not there.

    But petroleum is, indeed, used for all kinds of stuff. In fact, they crack Argon, which I use for welding, from natural gas, if the demand is there to justify the equipment.
    I expect we may see a decrease in using oil to make disposable plastic packaging, but the feedstock for a lot of plastics is becoming more valuable than gasoline in some cases- one of the refineries near me (there are 2 within 10 miles, and 2 more within 30 miles)- is building an enormous addition to produce plastics feedstock. This would not be in addition to the existing gas/diesel production they do- it would be subtracted from it. They can only bring so many gallons a day in by their existing pipeline and tanker dock.

    so, sure, petroleum products will continue- but electric cars could also, easily rise to be 30% or 40% of the cars on the road in america without endangering my Marvel Mystery Oil or my polyureathane foam shoes.

    Gotta throw the flag there Ries. You can't "crack" natural gas for argon because there isn't any in it. Argon is produced by fractionation of the atmospheric gases. It is the 3rd most abundant gas in the atmosphere, yeah, way more than the dreaded Carbon Dioxide.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tdmidget View Post
    Gotta throw the flag there Ries. You can't "crack" natural gas for argon because there isn't any in it. Argon is produced by fractionation of the atmospheric gases. It is the 3rd most abundant gas in the atmosphere, yeah, way more than the dreaded Carbon Dioxide.
    Well it looks like you are correct about no Argon in natural gas, but otherwise I think Ries' post was one of the more realistic and reasonable. An interesting point this article makes is that liquid fuels and lubricants can be made from natural gas if necessary, which matches what I was told years ago. The U.S. has abundant reserves of natural gas. Estimates are that we have enough to last 80-90 years at 2018 production levels. That buys a lot of time to develop alternatives.

    What can be manufactured from natural gas

    How much natural gas does the United States have, and how long will it last? - FAQ - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post

    It will be a blessing when we stop burning fossil fuels.
    Good riddance.
    Have you never raced a 250 two stroke motox bike?
    A few times when it bit me I did feel that way, but the pain is soon forgotten compared to the buzz of the stinkwheel!

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    Shoot- love the smell of two stroke mixed gas.
    Running a skiff is one of the pure joys in life.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Shoot- love the smell of two stroke mixed gas.
    Running a skiff is one of the pure joys in life.
    Why say good riddance then?
    Why not encourage thee development of cleaner burning 2 strokes?
    Something that goes bang every rev, is better than something that goes bang every 2...

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    I don´t disagree with scottl that EVs and similar must be a voluntary choice by use-cases over popula.
    And likewise, some types of use of cars and tools will not convert to EV tech in the near future, less than 5 years.

    But..
    For about 95% of car/tool users, in temperate climates, in the oecd, the EV tech sold today is already better than ICE tech.
    Often much better.

    EV is not good for US pickup trucks actually used for work, today. True.
    There are no good compelling pickup trucks that are EV. None.

    But..
    within about 3 years actual mass-market deliveries of a compelling pick-up truck will start from Tesla, and maybe from 2-3 competitors who have shown similar demos.

    The current best EV battery tech from Tesla in 21700 cells / Model 3 will be surpassed by the next version they unveil somewhere around 3/2020.
    They have had the cell for over a year and have been tweaking and validating it.
    Numerous sources and anecdotes.

    The next-gen tesla cell will be cheaper with higher energy density.
    This makes electric cars inevitable.
    Every tesla competitor will have somewhat similar cells within 4-5 years, by simply hiring tesla techs with 5 M$ bonuses if nothing else.

    In 9/2019 GM is struggling against unions with BK risks, Ford the same, VW the same.
    All are focusing on EVs.
    Within 4 years significant EV results will start to come from all automakers, or they die.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tdmidget View Post
    Gotta throw the flag there Ries. You can't "crack" natural gas for argon because there isn't any in it. Argon is produced by fractionation of the atmospheric gases. It is the 3rd most abundant gas in the atmosphere, yeah, way more than the dreaded Carbon Dioxide.
    Actually, you are only half right. The argon is produced as a bonus of the process of using natural gas to create ammonia- the actual argon, as I understand it, is not IN the natural gas, but the plant that is cracking the natural gas produces it as well. So the plant itself is cracking natural gas to make ammonia, but it also "makes" argon.
    here is a brief description of the process-

    Commercial quantities of argon may also be produced in conjunction with the manufacture of ammonia. Air is the ultimate source of the argon, but in the traditional "Kellogg" ammonia production process the route to argon recovery is quite different. Natural gas is "reformed" with steam to produce a "synthesis gas" containing hydrogen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. "Secondary reforming" with air and steam converts the CO to CO2 and additional hydrogen, and adds the nitrogen necessary to make ammonia (NH3). The mix of nitrogen and hydrogen (along with a small amount of argon) is then compressed to high pressure and reacted with the aid of a catalyst. Argon, being non-reactive, accumulates in the ammonia synthesis loop, and it must be removed in a purge stream to maintain production capacity and process efficiency.
    Argon can be recovered and purified using the purge gas stream as feed gas. Several steps are required. First, the ammonia is removed and recovered, then the hydrogen is removed and recycled to the synthesis gas feed to the ammonia process to improve overall process efficiency. Methane, which is formed in the ammonia process, is recycled to fuel for the fired heater providing heat to drive the synthesis gas generation process. Argon is recovered and purified for sale as a commercial product.

    Universal Industrial Gases, Inc...Argon Ar Properties, Uses, Applications - Gas and Liquid

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    People automatically assume that the only electric pickups will be glorified luxury cars with a tiny bed, made by somebody like Tesla- you know, an electric version of those ridiculous Caddilac Escalantes with the 3 foot square "bed" in the back suitable for one bag of gourmet poodle food.

    But in reality, Ford has announced the electric F150 will be out... in 2 years.
    Ford has announced a 2022 model F150 will be all electric.
    Ford F-150 Electric Coming As Early As 2021

    they have working models on test tracks right now.

    It will be interesting to see how it sells.
    For the vast majority of F150 owners, who use it basically as a grocery getter, the range, which should easily be in the 200 mile range, will probably be just fine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    People automatically assume that the only electric pickups will be glorified luxury cars with a tiny bed, made by somebody like Tesla- you know, an electric version of those ridiculous Caddilac Escalantes with the 3 foot square "bed" in the back suitable for one bag of gourmet poodle food.

    But in reality, Ford has announced the electric F150 will be out... in 2 years.
    Ford has announced a 2022 model F150 will be all electric.
    Ford F-150 Electric Coming As Early As 2021

    they have working models on test tracks right now.

    It will be interesting to see how it sells.
    For the vast majority of F150 owners, who use it basically as a grocery getter, the range, which should easily be in the 200 mile range, will probably be just fine.



    Looks like Ford has more in mind than just a pickup.

    Rivian Delivery Van and Amazon inked an order for 100,000 units and a $700 Million buy in.

    Ford it's reported bought in for $500 Million.

    Michigan based. Have facilities spread around but took over the assembly plant in Normal, Illinois.

    Sounds like great news.

    Rivian - Wikipedia

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    Actually, you are only half right. The argon is produced as a bonus of the process of using natural gas to create ammonia- the actual argon, as I understand it, is not IN the natural gas, but the plant that is cracking the natural gas produces it as well. So the plant itself is cracking natural gas to make ammonia, but it also "makes" argon.
    here is a brief description of the process-

    Commercial quantities of argon may also be produced in conjunction with the manufacture of ammonia. Air is the ultimate source of the argon, but in the traditional "Kellogg" ammonia production process the route to argon recovery is quite different. Natural gas is "reformed" with steam to produce a "synthesis gas" containing hydrogen, carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. "Secondary reforming" with air and steam converts the CO to CO2 and additional hydrogen, and adds the nitrogen necessary to make ammonia (NH3). The mix of nitrogen and hydrogen (along with a small amount of argon) is then compressed to high pressure and reacted with the aid of a catalyst. Argon, being non-reactive, accumulates in the ammonia synthesis loop, and it must be removed in a purge stream to maintain production capacity and process efficiency.
    Argon can be recovered and purified using the purge gas stream as feed gas. Several steps are required. First, the ammonia is removed and recovered, then the hydrogen is removed and recycled to the synthesis gas feed to the ammonia process to improve overall process efficiency. Methane, which is formed in the ammonia process, is recycled to fuel for the fired heater providing heat to drive the synthesis gas generation process. Argon is recovered and purified for sale as a commercial product.

    Universal Industrial Gases, Inc...Argon Ar Properties, Uses, Applications - Gas and Liquid
    Argon is not "made", it is used. BIG difference. It comes from the fractional separation of air.

    Tom

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    I own not one but 2 corded leaf blowers. One is also a leaf vac. Neither has the power of my gas powered one ...
    Scottl, you're a leaf blower driver ? Oh man, I thought you were one of the good guys

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trboatworks View Post
    Shoot- love the smell of two stroke mixed gas.....
    Love being on the water, hate breathing that crap.

    Love running my electric chainsaw. Too bad it's such a wimp.


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