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  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post

    In the automotive biz, Musk so far is an established visionary; it's the practical part that remains to be demonstrated.
    I think that's a great distinction. It just seems like everyone wants to see Tesla succeed so badly that they refuse to see anything that might be a problem (or a great, big, flashing red light at any other company.)

    If you read the reports from former employees about what it's like to work there (and in my case, I've caught up with automation engineers I used to work with who went to Tesla, then moved on) - Tesla's manufacturing environment is one massive CF with rainbow sprinkles. And we're a bunch of guys who still tell horror stories about the reality of working in a 'Big Three' union plant (waiting 2 days for an 'electrician' to tighten the screw on a sensor that's out of alignment because we'll get kicked out for touching it, even though the entire line is down, type of stuff.)

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  3. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    I think in the long run the decision to call the driver assist feature Autopilot will rank as one of the worst marketing decisions ever. You can put all the warnings you want in the manual but as we all know there are very few people who do more than scan manuals.

    Aside from the negative publicity from such incidents Tesla has managed to produce an electric vehicle, the Model S, that is attractive to buyers of higher end performance/luxury vehicles. Whether they can translate that success into a mass-produced $35,000 electric vehicle "for the rest of us" while earning decent profits remains to be seen.
    Programming is easy, rockets are hard but sexy.
    Manufacturing is invisible, dirty, not sexy at all.
    Well, I think it’s sexy.
    Someone whose never been around it has no idea how hard it is to make things.
    He got smacked right in his blind spot.
    Being a visionary just doesn’t put you in a place to understand what you can’t see.
    Plus I don’t think he’s ever really had to knuckle down and just do grunt work. It’s hard to understand that if you’ve never done it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny SolidWorks View Post
    I think that's a great distinction. It just seems like everyone wants to see Tesla succeed so badly that they refuse to see anything that might be a problem (or a great, big, flashing red light at any other company.)

    If you read the reports from former employees about what it's like to work there (and in my case, I've caught up with automation engineers I used to work with who went to Tesla, then moved on) - Tesla's manufacturing environment is one massive CF with rainbow sprinkles. And we're a bunch of guys who still tell horror stories about the reality of working in a 'Big Three' union plant (waiting 2 days for an 'electrician' to tighten the screw on a sensor that's out of alignment because we'll get kicked out for touching it, even though the entire line is down, type of stuff.)
    No way it’s as bad as having some one shit on the hood of your car or piss on the laptop so you can’t code the machine.

  5. #124
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    >>
    So in a total market of less than 500,000 units per year, which is driven primarily by 1. status symbol and 2. total quality, you think Tesla is going to catapult to having better than 50% market share with a sedan offered by a brand new company that has zero brand recognition with older, wealthier folks who are the majority the market segment?

    Yes.
    1.n.
    Tsla has the best most recognized most valuable BEV brand in the world.

    In the older-wealthier-richer segment tsla has totally dominated the market with the Model S sedan and the Model X (semi suv) for the past 4 years.
    -From nothing in 2012, Tsla sells more cars by model than anyone else.
    -- Tsla still only sells in about 40-50% of the global markets by volume - vs everyone else.
    - Tsla sells more cars by unit in their segment with one Model S than anyone else with all their model variants in premium-lux sedans.
    - Tsla sells more expensive cars by arpu than anyone else in the large premium (lux) sedan class.
    - Tsla has, by far, the best user experience and the highest customer satisfaction, of any car, any model, ever, in the history of the world.


    1.1n.
    The total global market in ICE is 2-3-4M cars/yr in premium+deluxe sedans.
    Between the main brands and the secondaries over 2-3M premium sedans == <> BMW (2)/3/4/5 series are sold every year.

    The total global market for cheaper-"EV power" premium BEV (or nEV) cars is == 1-3-10M cars per year. Depending.
    And probably on top of the premium-sedan BMW 1/3/4 category.

    E.g. almost every single taxi in the EU would immediately switch to a Tesla Model 3 on availability.
    Near 100% (maybe 95%, but..).
    Because they pay == 600-700€ == 850$ / month for fuel, and electricity would only cost == 40$/month for 10 tanks of 80 kWh each nighttime.

    A typical EU taxi is very similar to a low-level Tesla Model 3 - but without performance and techno features that are probably attractive extras.
    The "instant" one-time demand in the EU alone is probably 2-3-4M cars, for
    -professional taxi drivers
    -professional salesmen and reps like machine tools, IT etc..
    -politicians
    -packages and local deliveries
    -all light services like plumbers, electricians, IT, architects, permits, gov. councils/titles/permits/inspections etc..
    Every single local gov. instance in the EU wants to save money.
    A new Tesla 3 car will cost approx 700€/month in lease = same as a BMW 3 midrange == 45.000€. No subsidies.
    But the BMW costs 700€/month in fuel and the Tesla M3 costs == 40€.


    2.n.
    And what happens if/when the incentives go away?

    Nothing.

    The total global market is waiting for a 2-20M one-time buy of cars similar to the Tesla 3.
    Because globally gas costs == 7$/US gallon and night-time EV electrcity about 4$ / tank of 100 kWh, == 8x cheaper.


    Until the US tax credits go away or Tsla can deliver == 400-800-1.500.000 Model 3 cars globally, or more, Tsla will have sold every car it can make.

    It is theoretically possible that US demand will drop a lot once the 3750 $ phased tax credit goes away 2Q 2019.
    Yes.
    It might even happen. Yes.
    I personally Do not think so -- us consumers love performance. But this is irrelevant.
    The global market will want a large nr of such cars for the foreseeable future.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny SolidWorks View Post

    So in a total market of less than 500,000 units per year, which is driven primarily by 1. status symbol and 2. total quality, you think Tesla is going to catapult to having better than 50% market share with a sedan offered by a brand new company that has zero brand recognition with older, wealthier folks who are the majority the market segment?

    And what happens if/when the incentives go away? Or Tesla's operating costs start to match the other major car companies? Do you think their expenses are so much lower just because they're so awesome? Or is it because they're currently offering a small handful of models made on brand new equipment? Maintenance, updates, and future model changes are going to drastically change their numbers.

  6. #125
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    Hanermo, where are you getting your numbers for electricity cost? Your 800 kwh in Germany would cost $343.USD. Here in Arizona it would be $103USD.
    You also seem to be overlooking the fact that near 25% of the model 3 advance orders have canceled. I, too, have worked in a Tesla factory and the lack of experience and knowledge is astounding.

  7. #126
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    Short:
    Tsla is not "awesome" in making auto stuff - at all.
    Tsla has been poor-weak in most aspects of auto parts production, supply chain, assy etc.
    Because tsla was new, all managers were new, they tried everything differently, many reasons.

    But the tsla core products/components/cars have always been the best in the world since 2012 Model S.
    So the end product was fantastic, but the cost of production was terrible - because they did not have the experience, skills, tooling, in-house know-how, people, scale, management, culture to do such products well and profitably.


    1.
    The tsla operating costs re.cars only - are about triple those of major car companies, for 2016, 2017, 2018.
    Tsla is/was very much less efficient, by most metrics, on everything in opex for auto parts and auto production overall.

    Facts:
    -Tsla has been relatively small till 2018
    -Tsla has grown revenues == 90% y/y exponential 4-5 years and headcount similarly
    -So the "tsla system" has had massive personnel turnover at all levels, huge stress, and very high cost
    -Tsla has by all accounts had weak workplace culture and worker appreciation - ameliorated by stock option grants

    Tsla has by most accounts been a tough place to work for most people.
    So tsla has done a miserable job in many ways with workers from line staff to managers to senior managers to execs to top management.

    BUT..
    tsla also has iterated about 14 generations of
    -personnel
    -R&D and critical "secret sauce" solutions
    -global landgrabs in multiple strategic areas very hard to compete in for next operators
    -technological single-point solutions for critical path items

    But today tsla has a 200B$/yr. moat in 6+ areas no amount of money can crack in less than 3-5 years.

    So the current tsla cars are cheap to produce, for tsla, marginally, because they have their own tech in 6-8 difficult-to-do critical technical components.
    Examples:

    1.
    Contactors.
    250 kW+ sustained, 1700 amps peak, 400V.
    2.
    VFD.
    3.
    Battery cells.
    4.
    Drive motors.
    +Battery packs, SW auto, OTA/security/shadow/data, integration, FSD, superchargers (cost(capacity/reliability), SC deployment, etc..

    Where can one source such ?? No-where in the world.

    The *"easiest thing"* for tsla to match is the opex costs vs other car companies, per unit.
    But they do not want to, because "silly chaos" at high costs gets/got them new generations of tech much faster.
    Like 12 revisions of the VFD by 2016, iirc.
    And 3800 mamp 18650 cells on display in feb 2017. 30% more.



    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny SolidWorks View Post
    1.

    Or Tesla's operating costs start to match the other major car companies?
    Do you think their expenses are so much lower just because they're so awesome?
    --Or is it because they're currently offering a small handful of models made on brand new equipment?

    Maintenance, updates, and future model changes are going to drastically change their numbers.

    2.
    ...
    Automation in manufacturing is much more difficult than anyone at Tesla gave it credit for. And even once the lines are "up to speed" that will only be for the current models. If they are this incredibly out of their depth on a brand new line startup, ...

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    Elon Musk in an email today announcing an almost 10% "workforce reduction":

    "In 15 years of business we have never had a profitable year, so that is obviously not what motivates us."

    Keep shilling bud - all these responses apparently help you pay your bills. That, or the Church wishes it had such devoted followers as you.

    Tesla Cuts 9% Of 'Salaried Workforce': "Profit Is Obviously Not What Motivates Us" | Zero Hedge

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  10. #128
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    Most oecd countries have cheap night-time electricity rates - especially for anyone using lots like 8 x 100 kWh.
    Most also have EV nighttime rates for the same reason.

    Typical rates are 3-4 cents / kwh, 0.04 € / kWh==> 3.20€ / tank of 80 kWh,
    or down to 2.9 c/kWh about 2.4€/ 80 kWh. == 24€ / month example.

    Nighttime electricity is generated because the production and grid cannot shut down and the grid PPE is paid for.
    So any income the utilities make is almost 100% free gravy profits.
    The utilities like EVs because it is free money, nearly, and any wind output tends to boost this dropping their costs.
    Likewise, any load EVs put on the grid is extremely constant in the aggregate, so very easy to plan for.

    I know some parts of the US have similar cheap EV/night rates .. no idea how common this is.

    Example.
    I have 240 3 phase 60 amps 14 kW rated delivery (== 25 kW but defined as 14 kW peak).
    This is unusual and industrial and expensive. I pay for all sorts of peak/demand/inventions/crapola - now.
    Maybe 150€/month.

    If I add a 20 kWh (14 kWh sw limited) EV car none of my charges increase.
    I pay about 4 cents == 3.2€ / tank of 80 kWh. That´s it.

    As a pro I can legally connect the industrial drop anywhere in my garage. Parts cost == 100€.
    For 150€ more any local authorised sparky will connect the last 1 m, make a drawing, send it to the local electric authority for stamp sign and seal.

    --
    The 25% cancellation rate quote is almost certainly a bogus invented paid for hoax/FUD.
    It comes from an unknown source of dubious credentials and zero clarity re: results, previous tests, campaigns, etc.
    The source looks extremely fishy.

    Anyway, this is irrelevant.
    It may well be, 25% of US reservations from 2 years ago have cancelled.

    But more reservations have appeared, and for now until several quarters certainly 1Q 2019, tsla can sell all it can make.
    Thereafter, tsla can sell 2M++ in the aggregate globally, or 4 years at 500k / yr. Minimum.


    Quote Originally Posted by tdmidget View Post
    1.
    Hanermo, where are you getting your numbers for electricity cost? Your 800 kwh in Germany would cost $343.USD. Here in Arizona it would be $103USD.

    1.
    You also seem to be overlooking the fact that near 25% of the model 3 advance orders have canceled. I, too, have worked in a Tesla factory and the lack of experience and knowledge is astounding.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    Short:
    Tsla is not "awesome" in making auto stuff - at all.
    <snip the details>
    OK. So they do "awesome stuff" rather than make it.

    And they've had some economic lumps.

    The market leaders in EV Tesla are chasing had some lumps as well.

    But the GLOBAL top producers have weathered those lumps, are still making their numbers, and very much DO know how to build motor vehicles because EV are not even their only product, and never were.

    WHEN and HOW is Tesla expected to even survive those larger, lower-tech, but eminently more pragmatic competitors that outproduce them so heavily already?

    "Never" is likely.

    There are already more successful competitors in the game beside the top ones. Tesla only seems be a power in EV because .. they don't happen to make anything ELSE.

    The others do.

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    Well, never argue with a man that you have to educate first. Hanermo, I have worked in a Tesla plant. I have seen the result of 25 year old girls in management. I'm not saying that a 25 year old girl can't be an effective manger. BUT if she is a manager because she is a 25 year old girl, then no. I have seen the result- for instance a safety manager demanding 100% tie off fall protection but not knowing what that means. I have seen these wonderful robots placed so that when they break (and they will) or need to be retooled ( and they will) there is no way to get to them to do that. Scarcely room for a hand truck to get to a 10,000 Lb machine. No aisle, no crane, no fucking way. Electrical service like a bowl of spaghetti because it was put in as the building went up. I'm waiting for OSHA to come to the "Mega factory" and find how far it is to a shit house. This lack of experience and working knowledge is critical. The existing auto manufacturers have been there, done that. You won't get that knowledge and experience by firing all those who don't agree with you.

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    Tesla is inserting as a fluke or outside the box.
    Certainly not the "chips in shoes leader" put for sure propelled by very serious dollars and paychecks that brought some of the best paycheck chasers on board.
    The 25 year old girl at her best will miss a lot and such safety things will be way outside her boathouse as she just does mot have expose to this end yet.
    Is it not the responsibility of those seeing to very gently educate others even if the a few steps up the ladder?

    This "not my job or worry to handle" pisses me of to no extent. You see something wrong in H and S, complain and talk to me.
    Do not do such and I may write you up and send to to asking if the driveup customer would like fries to that order.

    You say you say some oh-poops, was this dismissed?
    I have never worked inside Tesla.

    Today one of my guys has a blister on his hands (level 2 burn) from a jam on my carb furnaces and I am going going be in a world of hurt doing the resulting slide show presentation and corrective action.
    Trick here being this guy is all sorts of alright even though maybe panic set in and not right PPE.
    I want nothing falling down on him but that would be the easy way out as a supervisor. Write him up, done, no questions, closed. Not my problem.
    But it is my problem.........Things that will hurt you are my concern.

    I have never seen any manufacturing plant without health and safety violations running wild.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    ...The 25% cancellation rate quote is almost certainly a bogus invented paid for hoax/FUD...for now until several quarters certainly 1Q 2019, tsla can sell all it can make
    Tesla just canned a few thousand people, which has never in history been the hallmark of economic health. I will grant that reducing your productive staff does make it technically easier to claim you're selling all you can make. But if almost ten percent of the staff weren't productive, what's that say about the internal business philosophy? To me, it says Double Plus Ungood.

    Sure, Hanermo—all these headlines are just a minor annoyance, probably invented to torpedo the stock price.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tdmidget View Post
    Well, never argue with a man that you have to educate first. Hanermo, I have worked in a Tesla plant. I have seen the result of 25 year old girls in management. I'm not saying that a 25 year old girl can't be an effective manger. BUT if she is a manager because she is a 25 year old girl, then no. I have seen the result- for instance a safety manager demanding 100% tie off fall protection but not knowing what that means. I have seen these wonderful robots placed so that when they break (and they will) or need to be retooled ( and they will) there is no way to get to them to do that. Scarcely room for a hand truck to get to a 10,000 Lb machine. No aisle, no crane, no fucking way. Electrical service like a bowl of spaghetti because it was put in as the building went up. I'm waiting for OSHA to come to the "Mega factory" and find how far it is to a shit house. This lack of experience and working knowledge is critical. The existing auto manufacturers have been there, done that. You won't get that knowledge and experience by firing all those who don't agree with you.
    Any thoughts on how that happened?
    Was it a case of underestimation, or complete ignorance.
    I’ve been in my share of places where the process is still being developed while people are trying to build the facility.
    I call it trying to automate a science experiment.

    Was there a fundamental blind spot?

    Then there’s the case where the machines are ordered as an afterthought...
    Shipping in two months...guess we’d better start looking for some automation.

    What do you think happened there?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    Any thoughts on how that happened?
    Was it a case of underestimation, or complete ignorance.
    I’ve been in my share of places where the process is still being developed while people are trying to build the facility.
    I call it trying to automate a science experiment.

    Was there a fundamental blind spot?

    Then there’s the case where the machines are ordered as an afterthought...
    Shipping in two months...guess we’d better start looking for some automation.

    What do you think happened there?
    I think a lot of has to do with Elon Musk's ego. I'll admit the guy is a visionary and clearly has a lot of drive & passion, but at the same time comes off to me as super arrogant. He didn't just want to reinvent automobiles, he wanted to reinvent automobile manufacturing as well.

    But he clearly didn't, or doesn't understand why the world's established automakers do things the way they do. The world's major automakers probably have a combined 1000+ years of manufacturing experience. They know how to build millions of cars, as cheaply as possible while still maintaining good quality. They know exactly what works, and what doesn't work. There's a reason why major automakers have extensive prototype build testing, where they will make hundreds of prototype cars that'll ultimately be scrapped. There'a a reason why major automakers do not make on-the-fly production changes unless absolutely needed. There's a reason for everything they do, but Musk thinks he knows better. That arrogance has cost Tesla dearly. There's a reason why Toyota can crank out tens of thousands of Corollas every day without a hitch.

    Just wait 10-15 years down the line when people try to get spare parts for their Teslas. All of Tesla's rapid on the fly changes to production are going to cause a ludicrous parts inventory nightmare. There's a reason why almost all automakers separate major changes by model year, or wait for the next "job" (as in Ford's case).

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    Musk is young ,handsome,and rich........ thats all the facts the media need to promote the dream ...and he s saving the planet in so many ways.....How many young handsome ,rich ,charismatic guys have I seen crash and burn,end up fugitives..?

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    As I read about the different costs of fuel, consider that a major part of the european fuel cost is taxes, used both to control the number of vehicles and provide revenue. Governments are not going to stand by and loose that income and control. They shift to another method, and what better way than a tax on electric vehicles and/or electricity.

    Tom

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    The planning is for GPS costed per mile/kilometer payment.....on top of all the other fixed fees that cars gather in.Power prices will also go up when there is significant demand for after peak capacity.Smart electric meters already charge variable rates ,it is simple to add on an extra for the govt when the car is charging.Even solar is tied into the grid,and can easily be taxed.Of course,the state will make it a criminal offence to steal sunshine without paying your tax on it....This future is here ,the local council spy on landowners 24/7 ,automatically penalizing a myriad offenses,with massive fines.,and jailtime if unpaid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    Tesla just canned a few thousand people, which has never in history been the hallmark of economic health.
    Then why do stock prices always go up when a company announces massive layoffs ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    Any thoughts on how that happened?
    Was it a case of underestimation, or complete ignorance.
    I’ve been in my share of places where the process is still being developed while people are trying to build the facility.
    I call it trying to automate a science experiment.

    Was there a fundamental blind spot?

    Then there’s the case where the machines are ordered as an afterthought...
    Shipping in two months...guess we’d better start looking for some automation.

    What do you think happened there?
    I suspect that the major blind spot that Tesla is having a very difficult time dealing with is that manufacturing an automobile is not a scaled up version of automated cell phone manufacturing. Add to this some ego in that looks easy and you have the pieces in place for mission failure.

    They are attempting to do this with a young inexperienced people work force which has worked well in Silicon Valley, but in actual manufacturing and assembly is not necessarily the best way. The experience factor, especially in dealing with past failures is invaluable in knowing what not to do. Much of this experience knowledge is not intuitive and until you have lived through the disasters, you do not have the paranoia that helps you from making serious design mistakes.

    Hanermo raised an interesting point about the actual input costs going into the components in a Tesla. If his number are accurate, then the Tesla business model is grossly overpricing their per unit sell price.

    This pricing structure is sustainable if the product is rare, has strong snob appeal, and no competition. Apple has up to this point done well in selling their I-Phones at inflated prices however they are caught in an endless loop of needing a new model with advanced features at least once a year. At some point the widget reaches full maturity and lose of market identity.

    What all of this means is that Tesla will likely have a very difficult time reaching the 10,000 per week and more likely at this point with their past track record, they will be doing very well to do the 3000 per week as an overall average unless they do a complete re-design of the line.

    The BEV technology also has one rather disruptive market force that has not been mentioned and that is that the BEVs will tend to have a very long life expectancy, meaning far fewer units sold over time. This likely will result in automobiles dramatically falling in pricing seriously jeopardizing the the Tesla business model.

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    Tesla can make the cars last as long or as short as they want......even changing the parameters at service.Or maybe online......anyhoo,car makers have long known that a car doesnt need to fail completely to make an owner want to buy new.....its so easy to moderate performance to a point of dissatisfaction without triggering any official action by consumer authorities..........Here s a thought ,T check your finances,if you can afford a new car,they stop the old one..........When I was working in New Guinea,a rumor went around amongst the natives that sitting on top of batteries would shrivel your privates.....the natives refused to operate the dozers until the batteries were moved from under the seat...A Tesla is all batteries.


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