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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post

    Tsla makes the best cars in the world - according to every survey of current car owners, by a wide margin.
    That's to be expected: study after study after study has shown people enjoy things more when they pay more for them: Higher Food Prices Cause More Satisfaction | New Republic

    Additionally, Tesla owners get the satisfaction of telling everyone, everywhere, all the time, that they drive a Tesla. They're worse than Vegans.

    On top of all that is what I call the 'Apple Fan-Boy' syndrome: it's a Tesla, so of course it's awesome. Apple releases an iPhone with a bunch of "new" features that have been available on Samsung for 2 years, and everyone runs out to stand in line for 4 days to buy one for $1,000. I bought my phone online at WalMart and had it shipped to my house. Obviously the guy with his iPhone is way happier with his phone than I am, because I don't really care, and I know mine does everything his does for $900 less, and I didn't have to camp out on a sidewalk to get it.

    Obviously Tesla has a lot of potential, but up to this point all they've demonstrated are a fantastic marketing competency, and a complete lack of manufacturing ability. I'm pretty clearly annoyed by the whole thing, so maybe I'm harder on Tesla than I should be. Then again, I'm just as hard on Harley Davidson, and just as impressed by their ability to have the market share of motorcycle sales with 70 year old technology priced higher than cutting-edge innovations from the other manufacturers. In both cases it's a culture thing.

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  3. #22
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    How about a NEW! 1968 jaguar XKE Zero all electric car.
    Bill D

    Jaguar resurrects the E-type with an electric motor as the E-type Zero

  4. #23
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    No.
    Disagree completely on facts.

    Tsla has/had the fastest home charging system, in the world at 22 kW.
    Tsla has by far the most powerful VFD, cheapest, in the world, at 400 V/1700 amps, under 50 kg mass.
    Tesla has the best and cheapest contactors.
    The best VFD sw.

    The tsla 3-phase motor was one of the best in the world in blended terms re: peak power, efficiency, size, mass.
    For the model 3, no data is available.

    Tsla has had endless errors in manufacturing - most minor - yes.
    But they have seen them, fixed them, improved, in general.

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny SolidWorks View Post

    Obviously Tesla has a lot of potential, but up to this point all they've demonstrated are a fantastic marketing competency, and a complete lack of manufacturing ability. I'm pretty clearly annoyed by the whole thing, so maybe I'm harder on Tesla than I should be.

  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    No.
    Disagree completely on facts.

    Tsla has/had the fastest home charging system, in the world at 22 kW.
    Tsla has by far the most powerful VFD, cheapest, in the world, at 400 V/1700 amps, under 50 kg mass.
    Tesla has the best and cheapest contactors.
    The best VFD sw.

    The tsla 3-phase motor was one of the best in the world in blended terms re: peak power, efficiency, size, mass.
    For the model 3, no data is available.

    Tsla has had endless errors in manufacturing - most minor - yes.
    But they have seen them, fixed them, improved, in general.
    Not to nitpick, but is there a reason you spell Tesla 'Tsla'? They are Tesla, Inc. - formerly Tesla Motors. Are the structured differently elsewhere? Not trying to be a jerk, just curious.

    As far as the motor goes, I'm not sure who did the design, but they likely aren't even making the majority of those in house, despite their claims that they are. Fukuta Motor in Taiwan is a big contractor of theirs, and reportedly making the bulk of the motors. Tesla, of course, claims to be making everything themselves. The rest of the electrical stuff? No clue - I'll have to take your word that it's the best. Even if it's only their design, they deserve credit for that, assuming it is truly the best.

    Minor errors in manufacturing that they've improved upon? They're 500,000 units behind on the production for the Model 3, and falling farther behind every day. Every quarter it's "We've resolved all the issues that kept us behind and will catch up now" except they're still only up to 2,500 units a quarter. Even if they're able to ramp up their production by twenty times to hit the numbers in 2018 they've said they're going to, it's still going to take them 3 years to catch up on just pre-orders.

    The Model 3 release was one giant, stuttering Charlie Foxtrot, and it's not even close to resolved yet - to pretend anything else is ridiculous.

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    Yeah I would really like to test drive one of those and I am all for it. Having said that I will also express a belief that beside the engine or power train is a better description there is where things do need a lot of expertise and building something good is better if you have experience with truck bodies and sedan models. TESLA does not really dabble in trucks do they? If they stepped into making a vehicle like a Truck would it not be wiser to shoot for 18 wheeler power driving Cabs first? It would seem there would be better possible demand for electric if someone like TESLA was able to hit a home run in that market first. Versus going for the Consumer market for pickups? Perhaps the choice or timing of which types to make first would not matter so much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spinit View Post
    If they stepped into making a vehicle like a Truck would it not be wiser to shoot for 18 wheeler power driving Cabs first? It would seem there would be better possible demand for electric if someone like TESLA was able to hit a home run in that market first. Versus going for the Consumer market for pickups? Perhaps the choice or timing of which types to make first would not matter so much.
    They are making semi's first. Already have prototypes. Search YouTube for the announcement. Pretty impressive stats.

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    GM wishes they had that preorder list..........Tesla is half the size of Porsche, 3/4 of Jaguar, and they had a 50 years head start.

    Barring 49 cent gas I think they will be fine

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    hanermo mentioned two years ago that it might not be Tesla who dominates- it may not be but I couldn't care less.
    The company is doing the hard work of bringing this tech to market.
    I also couldn't care less if government largess is facilitating this market development by Tesla.
    The research is of fundamental importance and a good investment.

    You guys watching the Olympics?
    Toyota is flashing some concept EV's past with demo of active collision avoidance etc in their ads.

    In my lifetime we will see EV with 1000 mile range and I am not exactly young.
    ICE's will be dead and good riddance.

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    Most people but an F150 based on emotions and ego...therefore a Tesla truck should do well, since most people buy a Tesla for the same reasons.

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    I'm sitting here watching a documentary on AC vs DC current and the history of it and all that.

    Tesla vs Westinghouse, AC vs DC..

    And I'm thinking how crappy to name a battery powered car after the guy who
    was the champion of AC current..

    Battery---> DC..

    So I had to look it up.. It is an appropriate name.. I don't know how they are
    doing it, but they are running a 3phase AC motor off a battery..

    Fun fact for the day, that everybody probably knew except for me.

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    I have a buddy who now has two Teslas, and loves em. It is a pretty impressive ride and parks itself which was neat. The second one, he went out to Cali to pick it up from Tesla and drove it back. He is a liberal which explains why he likes them. If he was a conservative Republican, he would hate them as that seems to be the consensus here.

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    I can imagine buying an electric car... I can never imagine buying an electric truck. My truck (actually a 1 ton van) sits idle unless I need it, and when I need it thats to tow, haul, or road trip with it. All things I would not want an electric vehicle for. Its not uncommon to decide to fuck right off and drive 500+ miles to go get some thing I need/want/have to have.

    Then again I consider myself a rational thinker that weighs out the pros and cons and can do basic math so I'm not their customer base...

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    Quote Originally Posted by daryl bane View Post
    I have a buddy who now has two Teslas, and loves em. It is a pretty impressive ride and parks itself which was neat. The second one, he went out to Cali to pick it up from Tesla and drove it back. He is a liberal which explains why he likes them. If he was a conservative Republican, he would hate them as that seems to be the consensus here.
    I don't think it's hatred of the vehicles, which are very impressive albeit quite expensive, but rather suspicion of the manner in which Mr. Musk promotes his business ventures. The latest such example being the announcement that they are "thinking" of making a pickup truck while constantly moving back delivery dates for the "standard" Model 3 which was supposed to sell for $35,000.

    Likewise, the Musk fanboys in the media are raving about the recent successful launch by Spacex and talking about private manned missions while ignoring the fairly recent loss of an expensive satellite in a catastrophic launch failure. Satellites can be replaced but before humans sit aboard one of his rockets he needs to demonstrate consistent success at safe launches.

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    But ya know he IS making cars and selling them, pushing the technological envelope as he goes. And that rocket got built, did blast off successfully, and brought those two boosters in for a landing. All from a relatively new startup venture. Not quite a con man in my book.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Street View Post
    Wow really! I want to drive that. I think that may be very cool,it does take a lot of experience to make a good truck besides the “engine” or the electric equal for that term in electricity speak.

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    QT: [They had better learn how to make a profit]
    and make things that do not cost my tax dollars to help someone have one...

    Just thinking if they were free I would get one..wait who would pay for it?

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    will it have military grade batteries? Big learning curve in trucks; they'll have too learn to treat their market as if they're idiots.

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    Fwiw..
    The Tesla (I use tsla cause it´s the stock ticker and shorter) VFD is the best in the world, because;

    -about 400 kW peak power output, 400V, 1700 amps (short peak 680 kW)
    -40 kg in mass
    -under 500$ in marginal costs
    -vastly higher efficiency than anything similar
    -nothing similar is available for sale anywhere in power/size/mass/efficiency -- by a wide difference

    1.
    The VFD is based on 13 parallel banks of 12 iirc igbts, 203x model. About 3$ each retail.
    Pics online.
    At 100.000 cars x 130 igbts each == 13M units/yr, tsla probably pays 0.50-1$ each.
    The rest of the vfd is plain vanilla electronics on a PC MB sized board, available anywhere for 30$ or less, delivered from board houses.

    A similar 200 kW+ industrial VFD from e.g. siemens retails for 15.000$, mass 150 kg, and costs 5000 $++ to make based on mass, components, volumes made, typical commodity industrial electronics margins, etc.
    The siemens vfd must be 150 kg to cool it .. or it would melt.

    1% loss at 400 kW is 4 kW of heat output - not power input.
    At 10% theoretical losses at 400 kW => 40 kW, that would melt the 30 kg alu housing (about size of microwave, pics online) and VFD board in a few minutes, as anyone here with furnaces, induction heaters, shrink fit tools, etc. knows.

    The tsla VFD efficiency is said to be 96% .. in some presentation .. and they had done 12-13 versions by 2016 or so.
    Since they do not melt, are very reliable, the 96% number seems very credible.
    Very few VFDs are swapped since about 2015 -- early versions had problems, 2012-2013-2014 or so.

    2.
    Likewise the contactors went from 1100 amp peak to 1700 peak from 2014-2017.
    3.
    Same applies to the motors, now able to use the new current, and power, and reliable.

    4.
    And the final drive unit 1:11 (+/-) gearboxes.
    Very small, light, powerful, strong, reliable.
    Driving a 2000 kg Very Heavy car at Extreme accelerations, quite reliably.

    The above are 4 examples of extremely good engineering, better than any other supplier anywhere in the world can deliver today- by a wide margin.
    By mass, power/mass ratio, marginal costs, delivered units, longevity, all possible metrics.

    For example a HAAS 40 kW VFD is about 7500€ from the HFO to the client.
    I used to be a commercial sales manager of a big Haas HFO, Spain.
    The HAAS vfd box is == 2-3x the volume and mass of the tsla one, for 4-10x less power, at 15x marginal costs.

    There is no Q. in my mind tsla makes and has made all sorts of errors all the time ..
    they state so themselves.
    They try for too much, too fast, and fail multiple times while doing so ..
    but they usually succeed eventually, and then have the cheapest-to-make widget, best-in-class globally, eventually.

    And the widget they end up with is typically 10x better than the best global competitor, on blended metrics of cost/performance/features.
    All 4 examples above would support that, imo.

    I would also note:
    Tsla makes more high-power auto vfds than anyone else in the world.
    More high-power home chargers, more superchargers, more electric motors, high-power auto contactors, etc.
    And tsla has been growing 60% y/y for 4-5 years by topline revenue, likely to grow 100% in 2018, 2019, 2020.

    In 2017, 11.8B$ topline sales, I predicted 10-12B$ for 2017 1-1.5 years before that.
    I predict == 22-26B - 2018
    40-50B$ 2019,
    80-90B 2020.
    In 2017, tsla was the fastest growing manufacturing company in the us, and most jobs are very well paid "great jobs" at all levels.
    Even auto line assy workers get stock options, that tend to vest at 100k$ net profit per worker at 4 years on the job.

    Sure they were too hard on the manufacturing people till 2017, people had too much forced overtime, team lead / straw boss were green and unexperieneced.
    Middle managers were green and often did not do so well.
    Data online in glassdoor etc.

    The biggest gripe here from US members is lack of manufacturing, good jobs, poor pay.
    Tsla delivers great growth, more manufacturing, more jobs, more pay, more opportunities - than any us company.
    It is or was also a tough place to work at. Sure.
    Hard work, too much work - paid for. Well paid.

    I think it is Fair Enough and am amazed that any US members would not appreciate tsla.

  25. #39
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    Might be great, but blasting the protoypes off into space,
    kinda puts a dent on selling those units.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by kustomizingkid View Post
    I can imagine buying an electric car... I can never imagine buying an electric truck. My truck (actually a 1 ton van) sits idle unless I need it, and when I need it thats to tow, haul, or road trip with it. All things I would not want an electric vehicle for. Its not uncommon to decide to fuck right off and drive 500+ miles to go get some thing I need/want/have to have.

    Then again I consider myself a rational thinker that weighs out the pros and cons and can do basic math so I'm not their customer base...
    That's exactly why I doubt Tesla will make serious inroads against vehicles like the F150. No doubt those who buy pickups as an image thing will buy one to commute to their tech job, especially in Silicon Valley, but hardcore pickup drivers will likely stick to gasoline and diesel. Most "working" trucks are owned by people who would not tolerate a lengthy recharge or limited range. I know many people who drive hundreds of miles to REMOTE locations on hunting trips and elsewhere and few would risk being stranded by battery range. Also, many construction contractors use their trucks from early morning into well in the evening and the ability to refuel quickly is not something they would easily give up.

    It's easy to play futurist and predict 1,000 mile range on some magic, yet to be designed "TSLA" truck but until such a vehicle becomes readily available at competitive prices it will remain nothing more than a wheeled unicorn.

    NOTE: I deliberately used the "TSLA" stock ticker symbol just like the guy who has repeatedly denied that he is shilling for Tesla stock when use of the ticker symbol is de facto proof of exactly that. Those "facts and figures" so frequently posted without source information are largely from Tesla promotional materials.


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