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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    That's exactly why I doubt Tesla will make serious inroads against vehicles like the F150. No doubt those who buy pickups as an image thing will buy one to commute to their tech job, especially in Silicon Valley, but hardcore pickup drivers will likely stick to gasoline and diesel. Most "working" trucks are owned by people who would not tolerate a lengthy recharge or limited range. I know many people who drive hundreds of miles to REMOTE locations on hunting trips and elsewhere and few would risk being stranded by battery range. Also, many construction contractors use their trucks from early morning into well in the evening and the ability to refuel quickly is not something they would easily give up.

    It's easy to play futurist and predict 1,000 mile range on some magic, yet to be designed "TSLA" truck but until such a vehicle becomes readily available at competitive prices it will remain nothing more than a wheeled unicorn.

    NOTE: I deliberately used the "TSLA" stock ticker symbol just like the guy who has repeatedly denied that he is shilling for Tesla stock when use of the ticker symbol is de facto proof of exactly that. Those "facts and figures" so frequently posted without source information are largely from Tesla promotional materials.
    I see it being a real fleet winner.
    Business work trucks and parts runners.
    Our shop trucks never put more than 150 miles a day running around town.

    Know what would be super cool...front wheel drive and a drop bed.
    Or four wheel and rear hub motors.

  2. #42
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    A potential future tsla "F-150 by tsla" may or may not happen in the near future 2-4 years.

    If tsla did make one by 2022 , it would likely be very good, have a big battery, and be quite expensive.
    Thus it would compete for those who buy the most optioned current F150 trucks, at high prices.
    A quick google showed a Ford F150 raptor at 64.000$, 6000 lbs iirc, == 2800 kg.

    A 2022 tsla150 would likely have a 200 kWh battery, 800 hp / 650 kW peak power, for 60-75.000$.
    Perhaps 10-20% of F150 buyers might buy the Tsla electric truck.

    This 15% is still a huge market, and the tsla would be much better than the F150 in;
    acceleration,
    safety,
    peak towing (mass, cog),
    peak torque,
    range unloaded,
    noise / comfort,
    usage costs.

    In a highly-loaded situation the range of the tsla pickup would likely be a little weaker than the f150, somewhat.
    Mass does not matter, but aero matters a lot.

    --
    I doubt You will listen, but ..
    I do not shill for anyone.
    I like tsla for it´s tech achievements and panache.

    I quote lots of factual numbers, that are publicly available.
    If I am grossly wrong, or distort facts, please point out when, where, how I did so on multiple occasions as a trend.
    I expect the auto world to distort or disrupt in 2018, +/-1 year.
    As I have said for == 2 years.

    --

    I have no position, but might for example get involved in a Big Short on Big Auto.
    Like the movie about housing .. for the same reasons.
    All the big auto stocks are selling at ridiculous cheap prices on PE and PS values. 5 PE on record profits.
    This is because almost all analysts in the world also expect the big auto stuff to crash.

    What almost none accept or understand are the suppliers, delphi magma etc. also dying, taking down housing and services and education and munis in their workers areas- and global effects.
    I think all above is a major global catastrophe - bad thing - that will ruin millions of people worldwide.

    And I also think most of it is due to greed and stubborn short-sighted thinking from the typical working classes/middle classes who fail to see and accept the change coming.
    It is also probable that most people in the auto industry and gas/oil like workers, retirees, parts suppliers, service suppliers like garages will be decimated and destroyed.
    Banks, financiers, bond market, stocks. So everyone's 401k is ruined.

    My pov is realistic and based on market fundamentals aka money and investor perceptions.
    This disruption will not be like anything else, ever seen, and will potentially have global geopolitical turmoil, risks, and effects.
    If any major auto market tanks, the global oil market tanks leading to a default from saudi and russia and everyone.
    -> banks
    -> stocks
    -> financing
    -> global trade

    There have been 10+ disruptions in the past ..
    but none like today where everyone is 100x leveraged.
    (turpentine, hemp, timber, steam, railroads, steel, highways, mass manufacturing, education, processors, pcs, internet, phones, smartphones, apps).



    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    That's exactly why I doubt Tesla will make serious inroads against vehicles like the F150.

    It's easy to play futurist and predict 1,000 mile range on some magic, yet to be designed "TSLA" truck but until such a vehicle becomes readily available at competitive prices it will remain nothing more than a wheeled unicorn.

    NOTE: I deliberately used the "TSLA" stock ticker symbol just like the guy who has repeatedly denied that he is shilling for Tesla stock when use of the ticker symbol is de facto proof of exactly that.
    Those "facts and figures" so frequently posted without source information are largely from Tesla promotional materials.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    That's exactly why I doubt Tesla will make serious inroads against vehicles like the F150. No doubt those who buy pickups as an image thing will buy one to commute to their tech job, especially in Silicon Valley, but hardcore pickup drivers will likely stick to gasoline and diesel. Most "working" trucks are owned by people who would not tolerate a lengthy recharge or limited range. I know many people who drive hundreds of miles to REMOTE locations on hunting trips and elsewhere and few would risk being stranded by battery range. Also, many construction contractors use their trucks from early morning into well in the evening and the ability to refuel quickly is not something they would easily give up.

    It's easy to play futurist and predict 1,000 mile range on some magic, yet to be designed "TSLA" truck but until such a vehicle becomes readily available at competitive prices it will remain nothing more than a wheeled unicorn.

    NOTE: I deliberately used the "TSLA" stock ticker symbol just like the guy who has repeatedly denied that he is shilling for Tesla stock when use of the ticker symbol is de facto proof of exactly that. Those "facts and figures" so frequently posted without source information are largely from Tesla promotional materials.

    Hard Core pickup drivers who need a "working truck" aren't interested in in an F150 or an F150 rival. Those people almost universally drive 3/4 or 1 ton trucks. Unless the hard core pickup drivers that you are talking about drive trucks because it makes them feel cool, or because they are to fat to get in and out of a lower conventional vehicle.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    I like tsla for it´s tech achievements and panache.
    Whereas most people buying vehicles are interested in what the vehicle can do for them vs cost. Also, most people looking to buy a new vehicle want it NOW, or at least within a month or two for special orders. A three year wait is reminiscent of the old communist countries.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    And I also think most of it is due to greed and stubborn short-sighted thinking from the typical working classes/middle classes who fail to see and accept the change coming.
    So, first you slam working class/middle class people who are the majority for not accepting "the change coming", which apparently means forced change dictated by elites but also discount their say in what they wish to purchase and own.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    It is also probable that most people in the auto industry and gas/oil like workers, retirees, parts suppliers, service suppliers like garages will be decimated and destroyed.
    Banks, financiers, bond market, stocks. So everyone's 401k is ruined.
    More nonsense and gibberish. Many of the parts suppliers could just as easily provide parts for electrics, or hydrogen powered, or whatever else is dreamed up. Vehicles still roll on tires mounted on wheels hung from suspension components attached to a chassis. They still have dashboards, seats, entertainment systems, upholstery, and many other tangibles. Likely they will still have seat belts and airbags, along with various sensors and control systems. To suggest that all of these companies will just evaporate is nonsense. I will address the rest of the nonsense one by one.

    "will be decimated and destroyed"

    "people in the auto industry": Could make and sell electrics, hydrogen powered, or whatever.

    "gas/oil workers": There will still be demand for gas and oil for heating, heavy equipment, aircraft, ships, and many other sectors for some time to come even if every passenger vehicle went electric tomorrow.

    "retirees": In most cases have retirement payments funded by diversified investments.

    "parts suppliers": Already addressed above.

    "service suppliers like garages" Skilled service techs could easily get additional training for new systems as they have done for years. Many have already received training and certification to work on the electric components of hybrids.

    "Banks, financiers, bond market, stocks". Most of which are already diversified.

    "everyone's 401k is ruined" Total nonsense of the worst kind since most 401k plans are invested in a diversified portfolio. Is all of YOUR money in Tesla stock?

  5. #45
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    Around where I live (near Toledo Ohio) I have been seeing Tesla charging stations going into our local Meijer stores. Meijers is a regional chain similar to Walmart. At each store there is at least a dozen charging stations going in. Is anybody else seeing Tesla charging stations going in?

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenton View Post
    Hard Core pickup drivers who need a "working truck" aren't interested in in an F150 or an F150 rival. Those people almost universally drive 3/4 or 1 ton trucks. Unless the hard core pickup drivers that you are talking about drive trucks because it makes them feel cool, or because they are to fat to get in and out of a lower conventional vehicle.
    Bro trucks and fat wagons.

  7. #47
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    Tsla chargers are at the Meijer in Champaign Il and I think I saw some at a movie theater.

  8. #48
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    Not at all.
    Most people liked PCs, but sales tanked to smartphones/laptops.

    This is like coal in the UK in 1920 etc.. vs electricity.
    Typewriters and secretaries in typing pools vs PCs.
    Small-town people with paper mills or steel mills or coal mines etc.. thinking it will go on forever.

    I slammed no-one.
    I pointed out actual given facts, trends, behaviors.

    "Elites" do not factor into this, just like small stores were killed by malls and walmarts.

    If just 5% of car buyers want to buy EVs from new companies like tsla, the us (and global like vw and toyota) auto majors are bankrupt.
    They cannot service their debts with declining sales, and they cannot afford to reduce their headcount without bankruptcy again due to debt/pensions/bonds/bank covenants.

    The change will come, "si-o-si", just like the change to cars from 1907 to 1918 in new york.
    Or smartphones in the last few years.
    No-one will make people buy evs, they will just be 99% of the offer and much cheaper.

    Scottl .. please cut down on the rhetoric and personal insults.

    I may be wrong sometimes on some things and predictions esp. regarding timing ..
    But I am usually good on facts, trends, tech., values, etc.. and never purposefully tilt or distort facts to my favour.
    I try to be polite, professional.
    Your negative personal comments I do not like - and they weaken Your case.

    You are smart, articulate, well-written and have a very different viewpoint.
    Fair enough.
    Use facts to dispute my posts and not invective. Please.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post

    So, first you slam working class/middle class people who are the majority for not accepting "the change coming", which apparently means forced change dictated by elites but also discount their say in what they wish to purchase and own.

  9. #49
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    Nearly every major car manufacturer now has at least one EV in production. GM is rapidly catching up with Tesla in total EV production. The last figures I found for the Bolt (Nov. 2017) indicated sales were nearly 3,000 per month. As the chart in this article shows the number of Volts delivered have been steadily climbing.

    Chevy Bolt EV US sales hit new records – reaching over 2, units to date | Electrek

    Tesla, which has been in the EV business (exclusively) for years delivered a little more than half that figure of Model 3s for the entire quarter.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/tesl...y-numbers.html

    Predictions of Tesla causing the demise of the auto industry are not just optimistic. They are so wildly optimistic as to be fanciful.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/02/tesl...y-numbers.html

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/musk...mi-reveal.html

    As I have said repeatedly, I post links showing the source for any claims and posting "facts and figures" with no source data is not only troubling but suspicious. While there are many enthusiastic pieces re Tesla there are just as many expressing deep skepticism and posting figures without source links leaves the reader unable to tell if they are valid analysis, "fan boy" optimism, or marketing hype.

    I stand by my comments about your very obvious slur against working class and middle class people. Accusing such people (which includes myself and many others on PM) of "stubborn short-sighted thinking" because we do not share your thinking about Tesla and EVs in general was very much an insult and qualifies as invective.

    Invective | Definition of Invective by Merriam-Webster

    Disagreeing with your opinions hardly deserves to be described as (people) "who fail to see and accept the change coming". Get over yourself. In previous posts you have referred to those who don't share your views as "Luddites". When you engage in such behavior you are asking to be answered sternly.

    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    And I also think most of it is due to greed and stubborn short-sighted thinking from the typical working classes/middle classes who fail to see and accept the change coming.

  10. #50
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    Hanermo,

    As somebody that worked in the US auto industry for over thirty years I agree with your assessment of the world wide auto Industry. A couple of years ago I went to the Detroit auto show and there was a Tesla chassi on display. I spent a couple of hours going over this chassi. I was looking at it with an eye as to what the tooling would be to make it. It was real obvious that the amount of tooling needed to build a Tesla compared to an IC powered car wasn't more than a few percent of what it would take to build the IC powered car. The big thing was the drivetrain motors built on highly automated machinery that a person doesn't touch till they come off the end of the line. Compare that to the number of castings and machined parts in a modern car. In the plant I worked in we had 1500 people building 5000 transmissions a day using well over 1.8 Billion dollars worth of machinery, and that's just the transmission. How many parts are there in the engine and the rest of the driveline/ Don't have a number but I'm sure it's in the thousands.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SIP6A View Post
    Hanermo,

    As somebody that worked in the US auto industry for over thirty years I agree with your assessment of the world wide auto Industry. A couple of years ago I went to the Detroit auto show and there was a Tesla chassi on display. I spent a couple of hours going over this chassi. I was looking at it with an eye as to what the tooling would be to make it. It was real obvious that the amount of tooling needed to build a Tesla compared to an IC powered car wasn't more than a few percent of what it would take to build the IC powered car. The big thing was the drivetrain motors built on highly automated machinery that a person doesn't touch till they come off the end of the line. Compare that to the number of castings and machined parts in a modern car. In the plant I worked in we had 1500 people building 5000 transmissions a day using well over 1.8 Billion dollars worth of machinery, and that's just the transmission. How many parts are there in the engine and the rest of the driveline/ Don't have a number but I'm sure it's in the thousands.
    The most complex part I saw was the steering gear.
    Hell they use boring old nonsycronous motors.
    No fancy servo drives for them.
    There's an entire industry built around delivering interiors JIT.
    the

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    The most complex part I saw was the steering gear.
    Hell they use boring old nonsycronous motors.
    No fancy servo drives for them.
    There's an entire industry built around delivering interiors JIT.
    the
    That's what I'm getting at. I'm looking at this thing and thinking "I've could have built this in my shop"

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    Quote Originally Posted by SIP6A View Post
    That's what I'm getting at. I'm looking at this thing and thinking "I've could have built this in my shop"
    Well...
    There are a few things harder to see.
    Batteries, controllers, software.
    From a computing hardware and software standpoint it's really just a big smart phone.
    From a conventional hardware standpoint the whole car can be sourced from existing suppliers.

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  18. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    Well...
    There are a few things harder to see.
    Batteries, controllers, software.
    From a computing hardware and software standpoint it's really just a big smart phone.
    From a conventional hardware standpoint the whole car can be sourced from existing suppliers.
    True... But all the thing you listed can be made on highly automated equipment just like a smartphone.

    When I thought "I've could have built this in my shop" I was thinking off all the metal parts in the chassi.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SIP6A View Post
    True... But all the thing you listed can be made on highly automated equipment just like a smartphone.

    When I thought "I've could have built this in my shop" I was thinking off all the metal parts in the chassi.
    Yep...just extending the conversation...and agreeing with you.
    What makes these cars special is that they are built 'in musks shop'...
    But he's got a hell of a shop.
    Meantime, the biggies are worried about pushing ropes up supply chains.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    Yep...just extending the conversation...and agreeing with you.
    What makes these cars special is that they are built 'in musks shop'...
    But he's got a hell of a shop.
    Meantime, the biggies are worried about pushing ropes up supply chains.
    Musk's shop is in the former GM/Toyota plant in Fremont Ca. Remember NUMMI?

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    Quote Originally Posted by SIP6A View Post
    Musk's shop is in the former GM/Toyota plant in Fremont Ca. Remember NUMMI?
    That's just his garage.
    His shop is where they build rockets.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Miguels244 View Post
    That's just his garage.
    His shop is where they build rockets.
    Cool I'll have to look into that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SIP6A View Post
    Cool I'll have to look into that.
    You do know that SpaceX is his right?

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    I think of EV's like every machine tool in my shop- sure I could run the damn things off of a gas engine if I had to.
    I believe in a very short time every car owner will feel exactly the same- gas engines only if forced to.

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