Trading with a sane president...
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  1. #1
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    Default Trading with a sane president...

    SO how is business going to everyone? Since january, mold sales are up, molding piece count is up, gas prices are slowly climbing but stable and lots of my friends are going back to work..


    hows things going for you guys?

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    you mean just like has been happening every spring since the industrial revolution?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Motorsports-X View Post
    hows things going for you guys?
    the worst since '08, ground to a screeching halt.

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    Slow- painfully so.
    Not much on the horizon in what should be a very busy season for me.

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    Phone stopped ringing in late. September. Incredibly quiet in November and December. Jan 15 to march 15 it's been the best since '08, I hope it continues to increase. A friend making AR15 lowers and automotive components is crying

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    If you are depending on Trump, you will be disappointed; he is nuts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cyanidekid View Post
    the worst since '08, ground to a screeching halt.
    Same. I thought it must just be me. Called two guys I know, same thing...

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    I guess I must be lucky and have optimistic conservative customers. I haven't been this busy in years. Hope it keeps going.

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    We have opened trading with Cuba.

    Cuba is part of the Americas, or at least the American Continent.

    Raul Castro is the President of Cuba.

    As far as I know he is sane.

    But why did you start a thread about trading with Cuba? Does Motorsports-X make replacement parts for 1959 Chevrolets?

    Of course Mexico is also part of the American continent.

    We do a lot of trading with Mexico too.

    Mexico has a President named Enrique Nieto.

    As far as I know he is sane.

    Do Texas-based businesses expect a change in trading with Mexico after a big wall is built? Will it be a good change or a bad change?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce Nelson View Post
    If you are depending on Trump, you will be disappointed; he is nuts.

    I've always been told that when there is a gold rush you should open a business selling picks and shovels.

    Maybe the next fortunes are to be had selling building materials for The Donalds big wall?



    Brent

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    A lot of my business is infrastructure projects.
    Timelines on these are often 2 to 5 years from contract signing to completion.

    After Bush crashed the economy, it took about a year for all the dust to settle, and 2 years of backlogs of contracts to dry up and blow away over the course of about a month.
    So- when those contracts were yanked, even though it had been a year into Obama, I didnt think it was due to Obama. It was due to the recession.
    In my industry, any Trump affects wont come until after the budget is passed, in October. Assuming a budget is passed.

    Certainly the budget being proposed right now would be terrible for business.
    My jobs run about 50/50 government/private industry- but the government ones would disappear right quick now if Federal funding for transportation, infrastructure, and schools was yanked.
    My private industry stuff could be OK- right now, there are more construction cranes in Seattle than any other city in the USA, so if the local real estate market there stayed afloat, I would still see that work.
    But that was not the case in the 2008 recession- private lending and building followed government construction projects right into the dumpster.
    Hard to say if that will happen this time or not.

    So- right now, things are fine, on projects that were funded 2 years ago. What will happen next year is totally up in the air- in big construction projects, things move very slow. I sometimes have 2 year periods after design is finished where nothing happens.

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    We're a capitalist, free-market economy, more or less. Regulations and taxes interfere with these concepts in a big ay, but not in a direction-seeking way. Compare us to a "controlled economy" which is what communist governments attempted to be for so many years, and is actually the phrase economists use to distinguish communist countries from capitalist countries. Controlled economies ultimately fail--most of them already have.

    So I find it entertaining, and kind of sad, when people attribute economic conditions to the president. Business cycles move in ways that no one can control, despite huge efforts by every government in the world to do so since the beginning of recorded history -- remember the story of the Pharoah's dreams in Genesis 41 (good harvests followed by bad harvests, the government should build warehouses and to store grain and smooth out supply and demand). We still do this today, with grain crops, and the strategic oil reserve stored in salt caverns, and the various strategic element, mineral and metal reserves we maintain, or used to maintain, for various minerals such as chromium, nickel, manganese.

    But we suck at it, and so does every government. Business cycles are uncontrollable and only barely predictable. The election cycle is not connected to them. We praise the presidents who happened to be in office when the cycles turn up, and punish the presidents who occupied the chair when the cycle turns down.

    And these elected idiots reinforce this fiction by taking credit for the upturns, and dumping on their predecessors when things go bad.

    Governments can, and do, implement policies that can shock the economy into kicking up or crashing down, but only in the short run (the results last less than a year or two). In the long run, the economy floats back to wherever it was going to be, in the giant sine wave that is the free market economy.

    It's just a sign of political and economic naivete to credit presidents for good economic conditions, or blame them for poor ones. Especially two months into their term, before they've done anything to the tax code or even submitted the first budget. Stock market bubbles really don't count.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Motorsports-X View Post
    SO how is business going to everyone? Since january, mold sales are up, molding piece count is up, gas prices are slowly climbing but stable and lots of my friends are going back to work..

    hows things going for you guys?
    That certainly is good news. If Trump can do that so quickly then it won't be long before you're all millionaires.

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    my business is up. first time in many years. i primarily deal with discretionary income types.

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    I have more business now than I have had in years, I hate to do it but I may have to hire some help.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cg285 View Post
    my business is up. first time in many years. i primarily deal with discretionary income types.
    Discretionary income items..? For years I made parts for most of the big west coast guys in stringed musical instruments (guitars, etc). These are highly automated, 50 +/- man shops. Now I hear they're hurting badly with no apparent recovery from the recession.

    Last week having a long talk with a formerly large customer, they're not quite sure what's going on. People on the west coast seem to have plenty of money, but they aren't spending it on discretionary items in the $2K and on up area.

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    We have been fairly busy since 2014. No change with new president.

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    problem is this country isn't investing enough in fun... every city with 30k people should have a roller coaster and a water park... talk about creating jobs.. id love to own the lathe making 30,000 roller coaster wheels.

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    Quote Originally Posted by yardbird View Post
    I've always been told that when there is a gold rush you should open a business selling picks and shovels.

    Maybe the next fortunes are to be had selling building materials for The Donalds big wall?



    Brent
    [X] Check if uneducated quote.

    border.jpg

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  31. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by rons View Post
    [X] Check if uneducated quote.

    border.jpg
    Funny thing, If you or I got a job in mexico they would thrown you in the slammer, but they can flood the U S with cheap labor and in doing so drive our wages down and we are expected to welcome them. Don't think wages are down? A dry wall guy used to make 22.00 Mexican dry wall guys dry wall guys work for 12.00


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