What's new
What's new

Way OT Ebola

Dave D

Hot Rolled
Joined
Oct 7, 2006
Location
Vancouver, B.C.
Way OT.

I thought that maybe the resident brains could shed some more light on the Ebola outbreak. What I'm not understanding is if it so hard to get (unless you come in contact with bodily fluids), if you take precautions why have a number of medical staff become infected. I understand that some of the cases in Africa may be due to minimal resources but the latest one in the USA is reported to have used full protective gear.

This is beginning to remind me of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Toronto (also in San Francisco etc.). During the epidemic just after a news story of a public health official in Toronto stating that everything was under control, Dr. Don Low (an epidemiologist) was interviewed looking very worried and said something along the lines that we were on the verge of an epidemic unless things went well.

Given the world economies are tied to some degree if the outbreak continues to go the way it has gone, there is going to be a ripple effect. World currency already appears to have been affected by this.

Looking forward to your thoughts.

Thanks,

Dave
 
In the African countries where it has been hitting hard, the hospitals and clinics often have zero in the way of equipment- often, no running water, no electricity or very intermittent electricity, no autoclaves, no isolation wards, no negative pressure ventilation systems, no AC, no rubber gloves, no face masks, certainly no moon suits with built in respirators.
So the health care workers there have been incredibly brave, working with zero protection with people who are bleeding from every orifice, vomiting, and with diarrhea. Its pretty inevitable that they are getting infected.

And, in public health, the way you prevent epidemics is by making sure the fewest people ever get to the hospital in the first place- that is, ever get infected. This is done, in a modern public health system like we have in the US or Canada, by tracing contacts, sending workers out to check on everyone the infected may have come in contact with, and isolating the poor victims.
We have the infrastructure to do this- the africans do not.
They mostly dont have addresses, phone numbers, or any money whatsoever for social workers and healthcare workers to get out and do this work.
We have successfully dealt with outbreaks of many contagious diseases in the last 80 years or so, and if there is any spread here we can deal with it. (so far, we just have a couple of people who have flown in, and, as far as I know, no evidence of the disease spreading once it gets here)

A lot of people seem to think this is like zombie apocolypse. It aint, and with money and attention, it can be handled, here, AND there. We need to send them resources, money, and help. Its a world problem, and the whole world should be helping the african countries deal with it.

edit- Ok, I just read about the nurse in Dallas. The CDC says, and I agree- protocols were violated, for her to get sick. Ebola didnt jump thru her mask- she was sloppy, somehow. But, tellingly, she was far from the only health care worker who treated Mr. Duncan- the rest of them are not sick. So unfortunately, she somehow wasnt vigilant enough.
Treating ebola victims IS dangerous. The people who do it are brave, and take risks. Managed properly, the risks can be minimized, but they are always there. Part of it is hospital protocol- and this was the first case- protocols must and will be tightened up as there are more.
Make no mistake, its a scary and contagious disease, and people will die, but proper health and public health procedures can prevent runaway epidemics, in the US and other western countries.

Remember, every year, thousands of americans die of the flu, and thousands die in hospitals of hospital acquired infections. I have read an estimated quarter million people a year in the USA get infected in the hospital, and tens of thousands of them die from it- far far more than the total ebola deaths for the last ten years. There are all kinds of deadly infectious diseases out there, daily, in the USA. They just arent as flashy as ebola.
 
A lot of people seem to think this is like zombie apocolypse. It aint, and with money and attention, it can be handled, here, AND there. We need to send them resources, money, and help. Its a world problem, and the whole world should be helping the african countries deal with it.

I REALLY want to agree with you. I REALLY hope you are right.

I REALLY want to believe what the CDC dudes are telling me.

Kinda having a hard time feeling confident in my public servants right now.

I can see this thing going REALLY bad......very quickly.

I hope I'm wrong.
 
The first Europeans to have been infected in the African countries that have it are back in Europe. Those countries that have had doctors and nurses infected because they helped (Norway, Denmark and Spain and I believe 2 more countries have infected workers), were put into quarantine immediately and flown home. As far as I know all are recovering. AFAIK European countries have regulations for these types of outbreaks. Not to say they are bulletproof though.

I guess we're all hoping it doesn't turn out to be a new AIDS.

Not the latest but better than nothing BBC News - Why Ebola is so dangerous
 
The healthcare workers are working in a brutally hot tropical climate. The protective suits are a torment under those conditions. Add in long hours and it is easy to make a mistake. A mistake in procedure removing the gear at the end of a shift can result in infection.

In the affected areas people often have to haul water a distance so there is not a lot of it on hand. Many residents have mediocre health to start with which equals compromised immunity. This time around a lot of help was promised from western aid agencies. If the aid gets delayed infection can spread while people wait for aid instead of doing what they have done in the past.
 
Think about how vulnerable people are to the guy who wants to exploit people by claiming to posess infected fluids from an Ebola patient. He could do untold harm whether he had the stuff or not!
 
I REALLY want to agree with you. I REALLY hope you are right.

I REALLY want to believe what the CDC dudes are telling me.

Kinda having a hard time feeling confident in my public servants right now.

I can see this thing going REALLY bad......very quickly.

I hope I'm wrong.

better wear your hardhat- the sky is falling.

Did you know that every year, 10 to 15 cases of bubonic plague are found in the USA- and the existing public health infrastructure here has somehow prevented an epidemic since 1899, even though democrats were running the country some of those years?

public servants protect you from epidemics every single day, and do a pretty good job of it, unless you contract FoxNewsItis.
 
Ebola left unchecked will take a HUGE chunk out of the global markets. It has already started and the media is following it like a HAWK. One guy in the shop is selling all his stock shares right now
 
It's apparent now that the patient zero case in texas was badly mishandled by the hospital.
He arrived with a 103F fever, told them he had been to africa, and they sent him home.

The stories being distributed by the hospital seem to vary by the hour, about exactly what
happened. Most of the stories repudiate former stories that had just been put forth.

This was a recipe for disaster. The doctor who discharged him, wrote on the chart,
'patient is in stable condition.'

If you had a chart of outcomes, the point marking 'stable condition' and the point marking
'dying from ebola virus' would be pretty far apart. Possibly at opposite ends of an infinite
axis.

Texas. It's a always texas.
 
better wear your hardhat- the sky is falling.

Did you know that every year, 10 to 15 cases of bubonic plague are found in the USA- and the existing public health infrastructure here has somehow prevented an epidemic since 1899, even though democrats were running the country some of those years?

public servants protect you from epidemics every single day, and do a pretty good job of it, unless you contract FoxNewsItis.

Wow, nice response Ries. Don't think he came across as insane in his reason for concern?
 
better wear your hardhat- the sky is falling.

Did you know that every year, 10 to 15 cases of bubonic plague are found in the USA- and the existing public health infrastructure here has somehow prevented an epidemic since 1899, even though democrats were running the country some of those years?

public servants protect you from epidemics every single day, and do a pretty good job of it, unless you contract FoxNewsItis.

Thanks,
Thanks for that.

We KNOW how the plague is spread. We KNOW how AIDS is contracted.

I'm not so convinced that we KNOW how this disease is spread.

And, I'm sorry for you that you have to go straight into "conservatives are stupid" mode, but I expected no less.

Just remember that the same government that is "protecting" us, is the same one that had numerous veterans DIE while waiting to see a doctor (no one fired yet), Also allowed a guy with a knife to run into the White House thru an unlocked door. Allowed a dude with a gun on an elevator with the president............

Dripping with confidence.

(Cue the Texas bashing here)
 
"Protocol was probably violated"

This is a perfect example of inductive reasoning.... I suspect that this particular strain of Ebola might be a bit more virulent than generally allowed. Fluids have to be contacted? Sweat, sneeze, coughing? All methods of vectoring. Touch your brow with a glove that has been though a decontamination cycle (chlorine wash) and still contract the disease through unbroken skin. What do you think the CDC will recommend when we are in the middle of the upcoming flu season, when dozens of people every day present themselves in the Emergency Room of their local hospitals with symptoms that closely mimic those of early-stage Ebola? I hear the blood test is expensive and takes at least two days.... The USA has the mechanisms and wealth to combat this disease at this, it's early stage, but if allowed to get into the poorer population of our cities (with poor/no access to health care), things will become...difficult.
 
We know how ebola is spread.

When you have nurses and medical staff that have little to no training, they aren't going to be capable of handling patients with a level 4 contagion....period.

Even when you do have trained medical staff, they make mistakes.

My hobby is reading about epidemics....and I'm more concerned about the bird flu.

That is, until ebola mutates into something that can go airborne. Then I'll be hiding in a cabin in the woods.

Even with the prospect of ebola being airborne (Ebola RSV is believed to have airborne transmittance capabilities)...I am still more concerned about the bird flu.

Right now, there are MAYBE 5,000 people worldwide with Ebola. The flu can infect that many people in one county. You need numbers for a disease to mutate.



Now, where Ebola is scary...is the paranoia of people who don't trust anybody, pulling all their money out of the stock markets, or hoarding 22 rimfire cartridges, cigarettes and liquor....or claiming the government is behind Ebola.
 
I do suspect that public health is doing exactly what they are trained and supposed to do, calm the public. In the Toronto SARS case I cited I had a choice between believing the PR from the public health official or the opinion of a world class epidemiologist. I do not like being "managed" through PR BS. I don't think that the sky is falling but transfer of Ebola appears to be much easier than reported through the media. Part of the issue I think is the way the general media initially portrayed the outbreak ended up being misleading.

Ries, please correct me if I'm wrong but I have read that (at least in the past) the majority of people in Africa with AIDS died for other reasons such as old age related diseases than AIDS itself. The expansion of highways and brothels in Africa provided the right environment for a more aggressive strain to become prevalent as it then doesn't matter if the host dies more quickly as long as the disease is passed on. Along similar lines, I'm worried that a tipping point has, is about to or can occur, permitting a much more aggressive form of Ebola to become dominate.

Dave
 
. . . I'm not so convinced that we KNOW how this disease is spread.

Seems pretty clear -- news and medical sources have repeated thousands of times that it is by contact with body fluids.

Is your point that you don't trust these sources? That it's spread by fleas, mosquitoes, Kool Mist, or ???

Getting a handle on it is another thing. Handling the occasional case here in the US and other first world countries should be easy enough (the private hospital screw ups notwithstanding). Handling thousands of cases in Africa -- and not having it spill over to the rest of the world? That's going to take some effort; the sooner the better.
 
You are talking about a disease that is spread through bodily fluids in a country where they are literally putting their dead in the streets, and the burial crews are striking because they aren't getting paid their wage of $600 / month.

HIV / Aids was messed up from the start. The origin of the disease was finally traced to a small river village in the early 20's, not a homosexual airline steward in the late 70's as the media led everyone to believe for a very long time.

SARS was a concern from the start, again a zoonotic infection harbored by fruit bats, springing out of the exotic foods market in Asia. Any airborne disease capable of killing is always of great concern.

Concerning diseases can as epidemiologists put it, "hop on an airplane unannounced"...Ebola, by the time it is contagious...has made itself known.
 
It's apparent now that the patient zero case in texas was badly mishandled by the hospital.
He arrived with a 103F fever, told them he had been to africa, and they sent him home.

This was a recipe for disaster. The doctor who discharged him, wrote on the chart,
'patient is in stable condition.'

If you had a chart of outcomes, the point marking 'stable condition' and the point marking
'dying from ebola virus' would be pretty far apart. Possibly at opposite ends of an infinite
axis.

Texas. It's a always texas.

Stable means that the patient is capable of leaving the hospital of their own accord, and treating themselves at home.

With a cultural barrier, a busy ER and a doctor having a bad day...it could happen anywhere in the US, on any given day.

Ries, please correct me if I'm wrong but I have read that (at least in the past) the majority of people in Africa with AIDS died for other reasons such as old age related diseases than AIDS itself. The expansion of highways and brothels in Africa provided the right environment for a more aggressive strain to become prevalent as it then doesn't matter if the host dies more quickly as long as the disease is passed on. Along similar lines, I'm worried that a tipping point has, is about to or can occur, permitting a much more aggressive form of Ebola to become dominate.

Dave

Unfortunately, I'm correcting you because you are wrong. With antiretroviral therapy, life expectancy still drops ~20 years for an HIV patient. Without therapy, you need not worry about retirement. The aids epidemic is so bad that it has lowered the AVERAGE life expectancy by 20 years in some African countries. Therapy is expensive.

HIV hasn't changed all that much from the time it was originally contracted.

It is NEVER the goal of a disease to kill the host, it's a consequence. More aggressive diseases become self limiting. The problem with HIV is again, poverty. No condoms, no rubber gloves, no EDUCATION.
 








 
Back
Top