What will the new disruptive technology be that rocks the manufacturing boat. - Page 3
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  1. #41
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    The technology that replaces 3d printing will what turns our vmc's into the metal shapers of tomorrow, interesting antiques.

    The technology that will make the whiz bang sci fi stuff happen is energy density. Watch star trek and think of the single thing that makes it all possible, massive energy density. 1000 nuke plants in a handball court.

    When that is developed, it makes concentrated manufacturing unneeded. Want to buy the product? Go on amazon, pay for the file and bing.............


    In the mean time I doubt you will see humanoid robots running VMC's, but I do anticipate getting an evening email from your manufacturing cell, that it had run an FEA on the parts it was running, and updated the design, sent to you for approval..........

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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    I actually suspect that the biggest changes will be in social processes and in software.
    It's not very sexy, but I agree -- I think that's one of the leading candidates.

    There's a version of AutoCad for the Android tablets that has "Cloud-based" () editing and annotation. Ignoring the marketing buzzwords for a second, the general concept is a shared cad diagram, and everyone who's collaborating can post proposed changes.

    So picture a customer providing you with a .dxf, and you (the shop owner) notice some problems, you make proposed changes, like a Wiki, and the changes are reflected back to the customer as effectively an ECO. If they accept the change, it's absorbed into the cad diagram, and the process continues. The purchasing agent has a problem with one of the sub-components -- they indicate on the shared document, notifications are broadcast to the customer and the machinst, etc, etc.

    That's very powerful, IMHO.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by jim rozen View Post
    Turn the time-telescope the other way folks.

    Tell me what HAS been the most "disruptive technology" in the past 100 years.
    Interesting question. Semiconductors, nuclear engineering and genetics, I'd wager.

    Semiconductors translates into CNC and assembly automation (industrial robots), which has been the most disruptive technology in the machining/manufacturing world.
    Nuclear weapons drove the whole planet into a 50 year Cold War and arms race.
    Genetics being the reason Angelina Jolie got a double mastectomy. 'Nuff said

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    Quote Originally Posted by lazlo View Post
    It's not very sexy, but I agree -- I think that's one of the leading candidates.

    There's a version of AutoCad for the Android tablets that has "Cloud-based" () editing and annotation.
    Sexy as cat .gifs and reddit!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shade Tree Welder View Post
    I have to call Bullshit! on that

    March was the 30th Anniversary of the first 3D printed object. Want to guess what the headlines were 30 years ago?
    "3-D Printing Will Soon Become a Routine Manufacturing Tool "

    Grass Roots Engineering


    Wednesday, March 9th 1983, 8:39pm PST was the exact moment that the very first 3D printed part ever was made. It was printed by my companies’ founder, Chuck Hull, using the 3D printing method he invented; Stereolithography (SLA).

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    re: concorde vs other "disruptions" - there was a wag at some conference who said something like "we wanted flying cars and what we got is 140 characters" - which is exactly the point - why do I want a flying car if I can just type in a message? Why do I want a supersonic flight to Europe when I can click on a link in amazon and get what I want?

    re: "computers aren't smart" - INDEED! The book (I'll find the title and type it in) is about how things which are not smart can do useful work, and the open question of how masses of these things (like you neurons) can as a group be "smart" and "self-aware" (that is, you.)

    re: "random numbers" - LOL - I worked for years in computer security, and how to get a truly random number that an attacker couldn't suss out by study of the system that generated it was an ongoing problem. There ARE schemes for getting "true randomness" but they ain't the "wiggle the bits from some seed" tactics most software uses. Of course, those tactics are good enough for most puposes. ["true" randomness, as in "Godly randomness" or "unpredictable enough for security randomness" seems to always involve some physical process - cosmic particle flux, etc.]

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    By the way - the thought expressed somewhere above about how the "smart and hardworking" person would always get screwed is not true. They might.

    But I was (claim to still be) smart and hard working. And I was Very Highly Compensated for my efforts.

    Sometimes it does work out.

  8. #48
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    One of the most disruptive technologies of the last 100 (or slightly longer) years is the liquid fueled engine. It gave not only mobility to people but freed them from hard labor. A human is capable of about 1/4 horsepower of output for a days labor. In a 10 hour day, thats about 2.5 hp*hr of work. With todays engines, thats about one pound of fuel, or slightly more than a pint of diesel. Less than $.50 worth for a whole day of labor.

    There are lots of other examples. Electricty, sure, its older than 100 years, but large swaths of the USA didn't get electricty until the 1930's, and a few into the '1940's. Then that brought the electric light so people could actually work after dark, electric motors to replace liquid fueled engines, and many other benefits.

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    Man has been using disruptive technology since the use of clubs, lighting a fire and coming up with the wheel. There have also always been those that protested against and even feared "the new and/or unknown".

    There have been many jobs and professions that have disappeared through time but unemployment swings and it doesn't have much to do with things becoming more "automated". If the world became a place without war and famine I wonder how things would look?

    There's loads of new stuff I don't understand and make no effort to do so (I can live without it) but there's even more that makes my life much easier.

    Keep the disruptions coming

    Gordon

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    The most disruptive technology in the past 100 years has been the birth control pill.

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    Quote Originally Posted by <jbc> View Post
    The most disruptive technology in the past 100 years has been the birth control pill.
    You win!

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    Quote Originally Posted by <jbc> View Post
    The most disruptive technology in the past 100 years has been the birth control pill.
    And it was evolutionary rather than revolutionary. There were many other forms of birth control in use at the time, but nothing so handy, cheap, or effective. Condoms, for example, have been dated to the 1600's, and some claim they predate Christ.

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    Quote Originally Posted by <jbc> View Post
    The most disruptive technology in the past 100 years has been the birth control pill.
    That's got me wondering. Disruptive how? I'd have thought getting out in time was much more disruptive and not even fool proof

    Gordon

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  17. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by lazlo View Post
    I have to call Bullshit! on that

    March was the 30th Anniversary of the first 3D printed object. Want to guess what the headlines were 30 years ago?
    "3-D Printing Will Soon Become a Routine Manufacturing Tool "

    Grass Roots Engineering


    Wednesday, March 9th 1983, 8:39pm PST was the exact moment that the very first 3D printed part ever was made. It was printed by my companies’ founder, Chuck Hull, using the 3D printing method he invented; Stereolithography (SLA).

    I guess I am privelaged and sheltered at the same time... While the world is pissing themselves over "3D printing" I think back to 1992 watching a stereo lithography machine run in a prototype lab of a major local company. Later I worked with these on a regular basis... Walked by one daily since about 2001 at my previous employer. About 8 years ago the advanced engineering team I worked with was working with LENS (laser engineered net shape) to create near net shaped medical instruments for testing. As said before the combinations available when powdering metals to alloy then melting with the laser canmakefor some crazy combinations. While this technology isn't really mainstream yet, it is not new! The SLA, LENS or whatever else is done in the realm of "3D printing" will likely be great things... But not quite as revolutionary as those who don't understand how complex the equipment around it is would like you to believe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wheelieking71 View Post
    I was talking about the 3D printers that people are using to print plastic parts with. you know, lithography. Not printing paper.

    Like the retards that used them to make guns.
    3D guns only need to last long enough to enable the user grabbing up the gun of the guy he just killed. That's what they're for. Why would you drive a car that'd disintegrate in 10 miles if you had -any- other option?

    Call me a retard all you want ,I've printed an AR lower that's held together for well over 500 rounds of .22 LR.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Orange Vise View Post
    According to Back to the Future Part 2, in two years time, we're supposed to have flying cars, instant pizza hydrators, and hoverboards.

    Automated manufacturing is sweet, but the human race is way behind. In 10-15 years time, we'll probably have the same CNC machines, slightly faster with higher resolution screens. That's about it.
    This reminds me of something I was reading a few years ago.

    I collect very, very old newspapers (1600's are a favorite), so I enjoy reading slightly old printed items as well. I was at a booth and the fellow was selling old LIFE magazines from the 40’s on-up. I was browsing through an issue from the early 1960’s and there was a special feature about automated machining centers, and how there would soon be no need for operators as “robotic machines” would displace them.

    Remember, that was the early 1960’s and in places the article suggested some panic and sense of urgency among machinists.

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    There is more truth to the robotic attended machine now than many people realize.

    The biggest change I am seeing in manufacturing? Continued reduction / elimination of labor in the process - this is accelerating and fast becoming a reality in the production of many consumer goods products.

    This is mostly a matter of smart integration - I have worked in plants where there are dozens of LGV's running around - bringing material to machines and loading them automatically, taking finished product and packaging it automatically, palletizing it automatically, loading it into semi-trucks automatically. Producing better quality product at faster rates in a safer manner with only 10% of the labor used in competing plants. By far - the most sophisticated element is indeed the software that glues all the systems together.

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    A person could read the current thread in the CNC section where the guy is forced by management to try to dry cut aluminum for the purpose of saving the time of washing the coolant off the part, and think about how many similarly retarded things we've seen, or done ourselves, and it wouldn't be hard to conclude that a new policy of quit working stupid could be a major game changer in a lot of organizations. I seem to think about this as it applies to myself on a way too regular basis

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  23. #59
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    MICROLUTION laser milling...the most high tech stuff i have ever seen in person.

    http://www.microlution-inc.com/products/ML-5.php

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    "....a new policy of quit working stupid could be a major game changer..."

    Hmmm.

    There are some things you can't fix. Unfortunately, 'stupid' is one of them.
    Often management decisions simply *look* stupid because the folks at the
    bottom don't get to see the full picture.

    Other times, they're just stupid. And, ya can't fix that.


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