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    Quote Originally Posted by Doug View Post
    As the news headline this morning said: "Cornered, Trump proves himself to be dangerous".
    Now we wait and see the reaction from other countries. I can't see a trade war benefitting anyone. Who has most to lose?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gordon B. Clarke View Post
    Now we wait and see the reaction from other countries. I can't see a trade war benefitting anyone. Who has most to lose?

    We've been in a war with China for 17 years.
    We have been losing.

    Cold wars seem to have many intangible losses.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Doug View Post
    As the news headline this morning said: "Cornered, Trump proves himself to be dangerous".
    They forgot the last part of the quote "Dangerously Stupid".

    One article that I read last night said that this had the potential to drive up the price of domestic cars and trucks by $1000 to $2000 each. But imports (even from the evil empire of Mexico) will not be affected. What a way to help US manufacturing...

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    The tariff only applies to imported steels, so if US-made autos are made with domestic steel, there should not be much rise in the cost of the final auto.

    That's assuming the domestic mills hold the line on price, in order to gain market share against the now similar cost imported steels.

    According to my steel salesman at EMJ (the largest steel distributor in the country) America indeed imports a LOT of steel.

    Why?

    Cost....that's why.

    Imported steel has had significant price advantage over domestic steel for a long time.

    Chinese steel is so cheap that most shipping containers never return to the Pacific Rim, it's cheaper to sell or scrap them out here.

    Steel salesman also said Chinese steel causes his company more grief with customer complaints than all other imported steels combined.

    ToolCat

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    Quote Originally Posted by cnctoolcat View Post
    The tariff only applies to imported steels, so if US-made autos are made with domestic steel, there should not be much rise in the cost of the final auto.

    That's assuming the domestic mills hold the line on price, in order to gain market share against the now similar cost imported steels.

    According to my steel salesman at EMJ (the largest steel distributor in the country) America indeed imports a LOT of steel.

    Why?

    Cost....that's why.

    Imported steel has had significant price advantage over domestic steel for a long time.

    Chinese steel is so cheap that most shipping containers never return to the Pacific Rim, it's cheaper to sell or scrap them out here.

    Steel salesman also said Chinese steel causes his company more grief with customer complaints than all other imported steels combined.

    ToolCat
    As I was leaving steering gears a couple years ago even the F250/F350 steering gears were being moved overseas (different supplier, not the incumbent moving shop). No need to pick on Ford specifically either, the other Big 3 steering parts I was looking at were already at Chinese suppliers. We were buying our castings from all over the world. While I have no direct knowledge on where the material for the rest of the vehicles comes from I wouldn't be in the least surprised if well over 50% is from overseas. Even in cases where the "value", ie machining and especially assembly, is domestic, I'll bet a lot of the raw material isn't exactly local.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    We've been in a war with China for 17 years.
    We have been losing.

    Cold wars seem to have many intangible losses.


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    That is just since China joined the WTO (and received "Nation of Favor" status - whatever that means)
    But I recall trying to run some Chinese strip material in the stamping shop 30 yrs ago. (I believe that it was Chinc)
    I think that we had to move the unreeling cradle over about 3' to get the camber to line up. It was ridiculous.

    I'm guessing that they have gotten lots better since...


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    Recent US innovation in aluminum supply: The Goldman Sachs Aluminum Conspiracy Was Pretty Silly - Bloomberg

    I suspect the tariffs will be gamed as well; and not to the benefit of US companies trying to make stuff out of aluminum or steel. Seems if we really wanted to support US metals supply out of military concerns, we could simply have required our military stuff to be made out of US-sourced metals. Of course, that might have been gamed, too, as with (if memory serves) fastener requirements a decade or two back.

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    A chum called me this afternoon to see if I had bought any steel lately. (which not only had I, but I had it sent to his shop for processing - LOL!) (from SSB)

    But, anyhow - he said that his long time supplier (Steel Source A) had hiked prices 35% on sheet steel since last month when he ordered last. So he called up Steel Source B to see what their prices were like, and they were normal. So it all came in today. - So this happened a day or two ago now ....

    He said that Steel Source A told him that "When the others are out of stock - we will still have it."

    I just laughed, as Steel Source B told me that same line - almost werd fer werd back in 2004 when we went through this very same thing before.


    "The more things change - the more they stay the same."


    The higher price right outta the gate should help to deter hoarding - but it didn't seem to deter it back in 2004.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    We've been in a war with China for 17 years.
    We have been losing.
    Not really. In all these comments, I don't see a single supplier named Zhang or Wang. It's all US companies who go out looking to find cheaper. Plus I notice downpage that your Supplier B says he has more problems with Chinese steel than any other - but I also notice he still sells it.

    Greed, mah man. Greed.

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    I think you better read the last few posts again... You are getting members mixed up.


    ... but you are right on the greed. It starts with one supplier finding a cheaper source, and then everybody else has to follow suit if they want to or not - just to stay in the game - b/c someone moved the bar down another notch.

    See my farming post. No diff - other than the players...



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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    You are getting members mixed up.
    Was just commenting on the "war with China" thing ... I don't see it that way. China put out the carrot for sure, but it was US companies that jumped at it.

    I see it as a war with our own greed, with greed winning. If Doyle Lonnegan wasn't such an asshole none of that would have worked.

    In a way I have to agree with Gordon a little. Europe didn't do this (as much, anyhow). They still have a machine tool industry and they still make decent stuff and they are still proud of their own products. In general, in the US, if you say you are in manufacturing you are cow shit beneath some techy's $500 made-in-China Air Jordans. The ones that actually cost $23 to make ... something is really fucked up, ya know ?

    It starts with one supplier finding a cheaper source, and then everybody else has to follow suit if they want to or not - just to stay in the game - b/c someone moved the bar down another notch.

    See my farming post. No diff - other than the players...
    Agree with you. Just in general, people are going to go for the lowest price. That's nature. But add in the thirty years of worshipping finance and prooofits ! and Milton Friedman instead of ethics and a government who couldn't give a crap about anything but their own wealth and power, we've turned it into a Midas-fest. it's like cocaine. Worshipping money eats people alive but they refuse to admit it. All they remember is the rush.

    If you even mention something like treating people honestly and fairly now, people will be all over you. Look around right here ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by SeaMoss View Post
    Just in general, people are going to go for the lowest price. That's nature.
    Then I can't be "people". Bought a camera not too long ago. I could have saved some money and bought on the internet but chose to buy in a shop knowing I could get advice and service if need be.

    If I see 3 things that all look as if they can do the same thing but have different prices I'll use some time to wonder why.

    I'm not saying I live by it but the old saying, "If you're lucky you get what you pay for but you rarely get more" still holds true.

    OK sometimes you get lucky and "rarely" isn't the same as "never".

    If I buy something I'll be using often then I want something much better than something I only use every blue moon. Confucius? Saving can be expensive.

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    One butterfly effect . . . higher aluminum prices will help revitalize the glass container industry as it become more economical to package beer in bottles instead of cans.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/01/mols...s-tariffs.html

    I think the beer maker's whining about losing jobs because of a 10% increase in container cost is likely overhyped - I don't think the market for beer at the canned end of the spectrum is that elastic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by motion guru View Post
    One butterfly effect . . . higher aluminum prices will help revitalize the glass container industry as it become more economical to package beer in bottles instead of cans.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/01/mols...s-tariffs.html
    That's good news for you, at least in the long term.

    I think the beer maker's whining about losing jobs because of a 10% increase in container cost is likely overhyped - I don't think the market for beer at the canned end of the spectrum is that elastic.
    Eh, little Timmy and Sally will just have to wait a year longer before beginning college...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    That's good news for you, at least in the long term.



    Eh, little Timmy and Sally will just have to wait a year longer before beginning college...

    We are the last Glass Container Machine Controls System supplier standing in the US and this development will help us more than it will hurt us as we don't supply nearly as much to the aluminum industry as we do the glass container industry.

    As for Timmy and Sally - a whole nuther topic that issue of thinking every kid should go to college - that is in part the cause of the hollowing out of the manufacturing industry in the US - we could learn something from the German tech/academic dual track system of public education.

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    “Canadian plants have Alcoa as part of the name... not sure how tariffs work then when the plant is US owned anyway. I would imagine they talked about it...”

    I believe Alcoa stated in the news that as they have plants in both countries they don’t ship product across borders and tariffs will have no effect on operations, however there stock is still taking a hit.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    An empty beer can weighs .53 ounces. If aluminum was at $2.00 a pound and it goes up to $2.20 per pound, a 12 pack of beer would cost about 8 cents more. I am not too concerned.

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    Heard an interview on NPR with some economic talking head, who was asked if the action by Trump made sense, and the answer was "No." With a pause for thought. In any case, he made the point that by raising prices (through tariff imposition) of foreign-produced metal, the domestic suppliers would follow that increase with their own - because that becomes the market price.

    I wouldn't argue that domestic suppliers haven't taken a beating in the last decade or so, but if they follow the price increase, then they don't really have any leverage to increase market share, and we are simply back to same-o, same-o, at a 10% higher cost to purchasers. And trying to increase supply by getting more mills into the production stream isn't going to happen in 6 months, but closer to 6 years, and tariffs could easily be reversed in short order.

    Trump team has great - rather dim, grasp of economics...

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    Quote Originally Posted by specfab View Post
    Heard an interview on NPR


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    Quote Originally Posted by converterking View Post
    An empty beer can weighs .53 ounces. If aluminum was at $2.00 a pound and it goes up to $2.20 per pound, a 12 pack of beer would cost about 8 cents more. I am not too concerned.
    Nice in theory but given the chance your price for a 12 pack will be raised much more than that.

    Domestic Beer 6-pack 12-pack
    Bud Light $5.79 $10.49
    Coors Light $5.79 $10.49

    I'm guessing $10.49 will go up to $10.99.

    Is "light beer" even beer?

    Cost of beer around the world - Business Insider


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