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  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    They're talking about the death rate. But I'm personally skeptical that most of the lockdown *rules* had any effect at all. There are studies (how good?) that things like banning concerts, sporting events, etc. had the most effect, some other things fairly little.

    But of course, we don't really know the total number of cases is, don't know what level or long anybody might have immunity for, etc.
    I am sure shutting down all the self service car washes in Maryland saved millions of lives. Some of the measures are nothing more than a disruption of the local economies. Most don't make any sense.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    So what you are telling me is that those minimum wage jobs that old fart reactionaries here say are not 'real' jobs that you are supposed to go get a 'real' job and not a minimum wage job, those jobs, are now so important that they must be forced to go to work at the risk of their or their loved ones lives? What, so you can get your beer and American cheese in expeditious fashion?

    OR how about those meat plant workers, elbow to elbow, not PPE, yeah, cut em off, fook them, gimmee my hot dogs and ground beef

    It that really what you are telling me?
    Not at all. Daisy is not being forced to work. You and I are not being forced to work. BUT, we are all faced with the choice or generating an income or ultimately starving. Sure, some of us could last longer without assistance, but said assistance cannot continue indefinitely without tax revenue to support it. No income for long enough, assistance dies out. The soup kitchen will have no soup, or the soup will have less and less nutritional value. My point is merely that although that dire result will take longer than just six or eight weeks, it is out there waiting if we are deprived of the right to earn a living. OK, there's risk involved in going to work, be it in a machine shop or at Piggly Wiggly—but life is risky. Given current information, I just don't rate the risk from COVID-19 as justifying the current panic-driven economic paralysis, which is an example of the cure being worse than the disease, or at least headed strongly in that direction.

  3. #303
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    Agree with DualKit (and largely with OldWrench)

    Now, one problem in all of this is that the circumstance is NOT me explaining some hazard and how to mitigate to DualKit Ior the reverse.)

    Things like government shutdowns have to use Very Simple instructions, because there is a fair size part of the population that cannot follow any instruction more than about 5 words long, Hence "stay home!" orders since most people who speak English (which isn't everybody) can at least understand that.

    Shutting down businesses was to some degree to create force to offset other economic force - people who can't afford to just stay home (and still can't!) or for some other reason lack flexibility to adjust - well, give them a government order that will offset some of that.

    The Michigan bullshit where a row boat was OK but a motor boat wasn't is just scurrying panic overreach

    Combine that with things like "marijuana stores can stay open, but gun stores should close" (from an anti-gun governor) and the Raw Power Grab is exposed. Likewise the place (somewhere in the east) that tried to close all liquor stores - and got near riots as a result.

    And of course, since we are not subsistence farmers, there is a limit to how much effect this can have. All of the people who produce, process, and distribute food, keep water, power, and sewers going, transport, and the ENTIRE dependency graph of things they depend on, are indeed truly essential and have to keep running. And this turns out to be a large fraction of the population and that alone limits the effects of stay-at-home orders.

    In other words, they were never going to stamp out the disease, and by now most places have gotten whatever good they will get from them - along with some bad as people who really ought to have sought medical attention didn't...

    We now have various voices warning "opening up too soon will cause deaths to go up!" - except they never say what provably possible thing will actually happen to make it be NOT too soon. In other words, opening may of 2020 or may of 2038 may have the exact same effects.

    There is no assurance we will have a usefull vaccine, ever. No assurance we'll have meaningful treatments, ever.

    Nobody, including me, likes these thoughts, but their credibility should not be ignored.
    Last edited by bryan_machine; 05-07-2020 at 10:43 AM. Reason: try actual english

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  5. #304
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    There's a deeper issue, one of energy and evolution, that at least some on the left seem to miss.

    For society to function, most people have to be contributing to it for a large part of their lives (raising children and other things that don't earn money wages explicity count.) There have been schemes where small groups of people leached off large groups (in fact that's kind of a norm in human history), but having large groups leach off small groups can never work for very long.

    And there is no option without risk. Women always take a high risk when they get pregnant, and humanity literally cannot continue without their taking this risk. A mechanized society like ours is full of risks, and some argue for a "back to nature" lifestyle to avoid such risk - missing that back-to-nature subsistence lifestyles were historically kind of brutish and short, and were associated with very high mortality.

    The older lady getting paid minimum wage at piggly wiggly was probably deemed essential, and has probably been a work, wearing a mask, behind a sneeze shield, for several weeks. She's not a useful example in this argument about this crises, she never left work.

    Yakima county WA was reported to have the highest death/pop ratio on the West coast. Why? People insisting on large choir practice in closets? No. A very large fraction of the population works in food production and distribution. And live in cramped dense quarters. Oh, and the majority of their deaths have been among residents of nursing homes and the like. In fact, in WA state some 60% of deaths have been residents, workers, or visitors to nursing homes. You'll note that such people cannot just "stay home" - they are "home" or working to keep "home" going. And those jobs generally do not pay well....

    Fair and Just have no meaning to reality or evolution. And their meanings have been horribly distorted by all manner of people over time.

    There are strategic questions might we might ask now - how much stuff should be imported from China, or off shored at all? How physically and commercially concentrated should meat packing or vegetable packing or for that matter any business be allowed to be? Are really dense big cities a good idea? Should we all wear masks at least some of the time just normally forever - if current levels of mask use, hand washing, etc., had been in place on 1 Jan, how much would that have mitigated the pandemic?

    But "people shouldn't have to work due to this particular risk" isn't a scheme that can actually hold up.

    (None of that makes any of the deaths less tragic...)

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  7. #305
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    Not at all. Daisy is not being forced to work. You and I are not being forced to work. BUT, we are all faced with the choice or generating an income or ultimately starving. Sure, some of us could last longer without assistance, but said assistance cannot continue indefinitely without tax revenue to support it. No income for long enough, assistance dies out. The soup kitchen will have no soup, or the soup will have less and less nutritional value. My point is merely that although that dire result will take longer than just six or eight weeks, it is out there waiting if we are deprived of the right to earn a living. OK, there's risk involved in going to work, be it in a machine shop or at Piggly Wiggly—but life is risky. Given current information, I just don't rate the risk from COVID-19 as justifying the current panic-driven economic paralysis, which is an example of the cure being worse than the disease, or at least headed strongly in that direction.
    If you take away UI you are forcing people to work

    it is not panic based, but science based

    it is more relevant to say your economic fears are panic based

    you do not rate it as dangerous

    with restrictions in place, we are going to hit over 100k dead, probably more[i do recall trying to convince people we were going to hit 4000 dead]

    restrictions cannot be permanent

    it would be nice if there was someone with a clue in charge, but hey, we have Jared and his band of idiot volunteers

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    The people in charge of Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, the UK, probably the PRC, Sweden, and now apparently Signapore have failed to do demonstratably better, either in deaths or ecnomic damage than the US.

    It is quite likely that density, economics, and random bad luck from superspread events (think events rather than people) explain most of the differences in outcomes.

    UI could be made MUCH less distorting by simply saying "your UI payment cannot exceed your job earnings average for the highesd paid 3 weeks of the last 5 months" or some similar rule. Combined for all the different jobs you worked. So during a pandemic, regardless of your state, you should get 100% pay. But not more.

    I personally think SS, UI, etc taxes should all be on employee rather than employer accounts, so that *everybody* would have same levels of coverage, at same levels of apparent cost. And we wouldn't have to rig up special UI for gig workers in the middle of a crises, because they'd already have it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    If you take away UI you are forcing people to work
    If you give UI you are forcing people to work- someone has to pay for it- where do you think the money comes from?

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  11. #308
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    Presses in Tennessee AFAIK?

    It may not grow on trees as such, but you can almost see it from there!


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    Funny how the people who are telling us to trust the science on this, are the same who were telling us to trust the science on "man made climate change."
    And yet they keep being wrong with all their graphs and all their predictions and all their BS.

    On the bright side, you're only at around 50 million out of work so far, gotta get those numbers up eh.
    2020's sure are looking a lot like the 1920's.

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    The 20's were "roaring".


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    I did see a quote from a Fed bank president saying he thought that due to problems in tracking, the real unemployment rate is about 23% or 24%. For perspective on that, the worst of the Great Depression is thought to have been about about 25% (in the US.) So we could yet see Great Depression levels of unemployment.

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    But in the pre-war days of 1930 - there was typically only 1 person employed per houshold, making THAT 25% much worse IM/HO.



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    Quote Originally Posted by SND View Post
    Funny how the people who are telling us to trust the science on this, are the same who were telling us to trust the science on "man made climate change."
    And yet they keep being wrong with all their graphs and all their predictions and all their BS.

    On the bright side, you're only at around 50 million out of work so far, gotta get those numbers up eh.
    2020's sure are looking a lot like the 1920's.
    yet they are not wrong

    your opinion is they are wrong, but temps are climbing

    your 30 year old argument holds no water

    I understand foxnews tells you so, but it is not true

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    And yet they claim that there was ice a mile deep over the Great Lakes back-in-the-day, even before the first Industrial Revolution.
    Must have been cow farts?

    No clue the concern anyhow.
    Man manages in these temps WAY better than a wee bit cooler.
    Look to the Year with no summer - not that long ago, and see how man fared at that time.


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    A problem with covid, with AGW, and surely with other things, is that one group of people with some level of authority make (or wish to make) a value judgement for society as a whole.

    For covid, medical folks have been making, and arguing for, a judgement that the death impacts from covid will be much worse than the political-economic impacts of shutdowns (while also arguing that shutdowns will work - see below.) There is both a questionable judgement of fact (how many people covid will or would have killed under what circumstance) and a judgement of value (what are we willing/able to pay to avoid some part of that.)

    Likewise with AGW - there is argument about the facts, but far more important, is argument about the values. The real reply of many people to the various outcomes seriously supported by AGW science is "so what?" This can be grim "it will cause the deaths of many millions of poor people in various far away places - you cannot ignore that!" - yet ignoring that, and exploiting that has been the norm for all of human history.

    Even if the "facts" were not at all in dispute, the value judgements about how to respond to them are in the end made by political-economic forces, not moral ones. There are very deep reasons for this.

    There are other famous examples. All manner of fairly sensible people have adduced all manner of sound arguments for why people drinking alcohol is on the whole bad. Prohibition was tried. It failed.

    Prohibition of marijuana has been tried for about a century, largely failed, and is being repealed state-by-state.

    So even if some kind of long term "shelter in place" really "would be best" according to some ivory tower notion of "best", it will not be sustained for very long. Reality will not allow it.


    In other news:
    CBS (?) reported last night that Coumo says that at least recently, 66% of people newly arriving at the hospital for covid-19 treatment were people who had been sheltering at home. Not working, not using mass transit or ride sharing, not going out and about. Exact opposite of what was expected. In other words, shelter-at-home (e.g. lockdown) appears not only to have serious limits, but to have outright failed.

    The BLS this morning reported the highest unemployment rate since formal measurement by that series began in 1948. Various smart people make very sensible arguments that it may be nearly 10% worse than that by now. Just how bad does it have to get before we realize the treatment is worse than the disease? (At least at this dose...)

    I observed a few weeks ago that one limit on lockdowns is that when tax revenues fall so far government can no longer pay police to enforce lockdowns, the lockdowns will per force end. Apparently a number of states are in serious trouble....

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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post


    In other news:
    CBS (?) reported last night that Coumo says that at least recently, 66% of people newly arriving at the hospital for covid-19 treatment were people who had been sheltering at home. Not working, not using mass transit or ride sharing, not going out and about. Exact opposite of what was expected. In other words, shelter-at-home (e.g. lockdown) appears not only to have serious limits, but to have outright failed.

    I'm guessing that the cities will get to the end and drop off quickly.

    Georgia hasn't seen a rise at all, and we're closing in on 2 full weeks of manicures by now.



    ... and for those of you as cornfused as to what AGW is that he was talking about - Google says that it is "Anthropogenic global warming".
    Never [knowingly] heard that term before.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    The 20's were "roaring".


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    Most people long forgot about the crash of 1920-1921, or why it didn't last a lot longer.

    Though standing in line to get limited food rations and needing a piece of paper with reason to travel, and snitching on friends and neighbors hoping to get a gold star from the "authorities" has some history as well. Many in Canada are hoping for another 2-3 years of this...

    Sure would be nice to live in a world where the solution to government created problems wasn't more government.
    I also miss the days when every job that put food on the table and kept a roof over someones head was considered " essential ".

    On the plus side it was snowing this morning, and 11 years ago it was +30C at the end of April. If this global warming continues I might finally buy a sled.

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    The crash you are talking aboot is likely the tail end of the Spanish Flu outbreak of 2018, when it seems that it was the Yankee troops from somewhere down in Dixie that actually took it overseas? But Spain got hit the hardest, so they got it named after them....


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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike1974 View Post
    Hopefully none of your employees know you here....

    An aside, I agree to an extent. Our former governor Rick Scott (who is apparently worth about 160 million dollars) is bitching because of the extra $600 people are getting. He says we can't pay people more for staying home than working. Easy for him to say, doubt he is worried on making his next mortgage payment or buying groceries.

    Also, unemployment bennies in FL are capped at $275/week and I think only 13 weeks, but they increased the max time because of c-19
    The man is like a rich landowner of old and has always been out of touch to regular citizens. Where he and our leaders are hands on is when they collect taxes on the regular people. That pays the bills and it is never reduced on the middle class.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gustafson View Post
    take a regular paycheck equivalent to what you claimed on the application, even if it is just sitting in your personal account instead of business

    I do not believe we are getting taxed, but I could be wrong
    The government would never just turn around and demand the money back or levy a new tax would they?

    I would never raise your taxes Gus. That said don’t you want to thank the Great Orange Ghost? Remember he and all those Congress critters can come back on us and swarm like the killer locusts. Next thing that happens could be rivers turn to blood.

    I honestly fear is that the invisible enemy is not playing nor is it done. People are in food lines every day. Life will carry on yet things will be different after this blows over.


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