Monthly Mill Allocations for vendors?...........ugh. - Page 2
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  1. #21
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    I just got quotes on about 5 tons of steel sheet metal ($1.66 per lb). While I can get it all, its almost exactly double what I paid last year this time. Not sure how customer is going to like the news.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JP Machining View Post
    I just got quotes on about 5 tons of steel sheet metal ($1.66 per lb). While I can get it all, its almost exactly double what I paid last year this time. Not sure how customer is going to like the news.
    Same boat here...............It's all repeat work..............instead of always requoting, customer has agreed to material surcharge on invoices...............they are still buying though. They have a 15+ week back log...............gives me a cushion on delivery/lead time...................

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    New update today on the extrussion mill - at 42 weeks currently.

    I thought that I had a load of vibe media in the wherehouse, but apparently not the right size.
    Ordered 4 weeks ago now I think. Was 4-5 week lead at the time.
    Pinged them today, and they say ship in 2 weeks.

    Running everything that I can with the big stuff for now.
    It will be small stuff soon enough.


    -----------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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    Quote Originally Posted by david n View Post
    Same boat here...............It's all repeat work..............instead of always requoting, customer has agreed to material surcharge on invoices...............they are still buying though. They have a 15+ week back log...............gives me a cushion on delivery/lead time...................
    I have a lot of repeat "Blanket" orders I do every year. I usually quote time and material for Stainless due to fluctuations. I now have to re quote all my jobs with material separate. My customers understand and it also helps push them to plan further out, which books up my schedule further out. Making me feel more secure with my workload.

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    There's still supply problems in a lot of sectors, though Lumber is back down to $4 a 2x4 here from a peak of $12 a few months ago, they never had a supply problem up here though, just making hay while the printer is running.
    I got $.60/lb for 316 chips a few months ago, and its down to $0.40 last trip about 3 weeks ago, but there's definitely still some supply issues on raw material and it hasn't gone down much here.

    Some shortage is just people like me trying to stock pile a bit to not get caught again, if I need 1 I'll buy 3 now. I'm putting in another big carbide order in a few days to carry me through all next year an maybe the one after that if things slow down.(they'll have to one way or another I can't keep this pace)

    I've been telling some people to get ready for a long winter, my bet is we'll be back into lockdowns soon enough. Vaccine failure should be too hard to deny by Christmas or so. And that doesn't include all the people who will be saying F You and quitting their jobs over the " get on the train " forced vaccination for work, lots of them around Canada getting their notice that they're out the door in october or Mid Nov if they don't submit by then.

    Anyway, its 5am, time to go Build Back Better in the shop...

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  7. #26
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    Shoot, we’re having issues getting 4140 round bar! And we need to be getting some 8,000 pounds/month to keep our inventory of finished parts in decent shape.

    Our suppliers are EMJ, Penn Steel, and Ryerson. When they do locate some stock, the price is “not nice”.

    Fortunately we had Penn Steel stock up for us about 9 months ago, before the dung has really hit the fan. This has kept our head above water.

    We sell to the mining industry, and when they call wanting parts, it’s either deliver, or they go elsewhere — possibly for good.

    Jeez, of all the BS we’ve endured over the years trying to make a living in this business, who would have thought steel shortages could cost us business.

    I was all for the steel tariffs at the time, but now I think it’s time to open the floodgates to the world, and let them restock our steel racks.

    I’m a proud American, but it doesn’t do any good if I can’t get the raw materials to produce our goods.

    ToolCat

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  9. #27
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    Looks like it has hit the brass market too.

    Was just quoted 5 week delivery from my main red metal supplier.


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    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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    It ain't just raw materials! I've been stocking up on parts for a bunch of up-coming projects (car/truck related).
    Nothing, and I mean NOTHING is in stock! Ox, you know those hubs you bought for your truck? There are currently zero available in the world.
    3-6 months out from Yukon. Even longer from Dynatrac. Didn't check Spyntec cause I don't want Syntecs. But, I'm told by Geno's its the same story.
    And, to get on the list? you order/PAY! now! They sit on your $$$$$ (collecting interest I'm sure) for as long as they feel like taking to ship.
    That is just one example. I have ran in to this at least 50 times since April when I got slow.

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  12. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by wheelieking71 View Post
    It ain't just raw materials! I've been stocking up on parts for a bunch of up-coming projects (car/truck related).
    Nothing, and I mean NOTHING is in stock! Ox, you know those hubs you bought for your truck? There are currently zero available in the world.
    3-6 months out from Yukon. Even longer from Dynatrac. Didn't check Spyntec cause I don't want Syntecs. But, I'm told by Geno's its the same story.
    And, to get on the list? you order/PAY! now! They sit on your $$$$$ (collecting interest I'm sure) for as long as they feel like taking to ship.
    That is just one example. I have ran in to this at least 50 times since April when I got slow.
    It's insane. I do automotive products and working through a big development project for the past year has been nuts to get basic things. One product is car stereo related. We have to test functionality with various head units. You think you can buy a middle priced basic 2din car stereo right now? $250 stereos are either $600+ or out of stock.

    One of the products I make is for AC systems. It hinges on basic stuff like AC compressors being available. One of my products is handicapped right now because there's an electrical connector/pigtail that is 100% unavailable from any source worldwide. I compiled a list of all vehicles that use the connector so customers could source one from a wrecking yard.

    I've been making dumb engine parts like spring spacers/shims for the local engine rebuilder because they can't get them.

    Having lots of friends with automotive projects they're working on the general state of things is all the quality stuff is sold out and your left with the shitbox china junk.

  13. #30
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    But wait, there's more! Don't want to use public transit? Can't afford/don't want a car? Get a bicycle!! (A generally great idea anway.)

    Well, good luck with that.

    Even the very pricey HIGH end stuff is said to be a year out. (I have a set of fancy carbon race wheels on order, which I may not see until 2023....)

    It is reported by an industry type that as 2020 went on, the cycling industry ramped up hugely - but they face the same sorts of supply issues as everybody else - and even with the increased output they still couldn't meet presented demand.

    This is likely to work out well for cycling - it's a great sport and a great transport option for some people, but this is a real pain for shops, for the OEMs, and for riders and would-be riders.

    Oh, and in the PC market (where most stuff comes from somewhere in SE asia - not always the PRC - even though strategic parts may well come from the US) - huge backlogs - and huge shipping delays.

    This all backfeeds on itself. Companies can't update IT, have a harder time with work-from-home, more people get sick, more delays. Back and forth across the entire economy.

    Have A Nice Day

  14. #31
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    I have (had) a customer that was supplying the race (look at me?) bikecycle market, and while he should be making hay, he apparently went tits up a cpl yrs ago. His site is still up and facebook page, but he doesn't seem to be moving anything. He ran into troubled times of some sort and even after I gave him enough parts to get rolling again, still nothing.

    I think that he picked a piss poor time to not be in the market!


    As for me?
    I still have that Concord 10 speed that I bought back around 1980.
    It still sorta works on the odd occassion that it sees daylight.


    -----------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garwood View Post
    It's insane. I do automotive products and working through a big development project for the past year has been nuts to get basic things. One product is car stereo related. We have to test functionality with various head units. You think you can buy a middle priced basic 2din car stereo right now? $250 stereos are either $600+ or out of stock.

    One of the products I make is for AC systems. It hinges on basic stuff like AC compressors being available. One of my products is handicapped right now because there's an electrical connector/pigtail that is 100% unavailable from any source worldwide. I compiled a list of all vehicles that use the connector so customers could source one from a wrecking yard.

    I've been making dumb engine parts like spring spacers/shims for the local engine rebuilder because they can't get them.

    Having lots of friends with automotive projects they're working on the general state of things is all the quality stuff is sold out and your left with the shitbox china junk.
    Are you hip to the hydraulic flat tappet pandemic yet? Way worse then the china flu. Mortality rate is like 90%!

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    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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    Quote Originally Posted by wheelieking71 View Post
    Are you hip to the hydraulic flat tappet pandemic yet? Way worse then the china flu. Mortality rate is like 90%!
    I make some valvetrain components for diesel pickups and in the past 6 months there's been an influx of dogshit lifters that are machined wrong.

    Working on some Dodge Hemi parts now and I hear the same thing is happening only on a much larger scale.

    And what a mess. Most lifters don't have a brand name on them. Who knows where they came from.

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    Ox - bicycle racing is weird. Not as weird as motorsports, but weird. In its own special way. But hey, it keeps me occupied and therefore out of trouble...

    Bicycle commuting is rather more cost sensitive and results oriented. Your concord is behind only in regards to indexed shifting (very nice), disk brakes (really are better), and in the current market electric assist. Bikes in general live a Very Long Time.

    As for the rest of it? We live in interesting times...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garwood View Post
    And what a mess. Most lifters don't have a brand name on them. Who knows where they came from.
    I've gone deep in this rabbit hole! What I have learned is there have been zero NEW lifters manufactured since the '80's!
    100% of what people have been buying, no matter the "manufacturer" (Comp Cams, Lunati, Isky, Crower, Crane, Howards, Hughs, etc.) are re-manufactured.
    No telling how many times...............How deep does case-hardening go anyways?
    Combine that with the fact that there are no more heavy metals in "off the shelf" oil, and flat tappet cams are doomed before you even stab it in the block.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    Your concord is behind only in regards to indexed shifting (very nice), disk brakes (really are better), and in the current market electric assist. Bikes in general live a Very Long Time.

    As for the rest of it? We live in interesting times...
    No kidding! I never had a bicycle that stopped decent until I got my current bike. An old Giant Rainier.
    First bike I never have to worry about my generous girth blowing an intersection on!

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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    But wait, there's more! Don't want to use public transit? Can't afford/don't want a car? Get a bicycle!! (A generally great idea anway.)

    Well, good luck with that.

    Even the very pricey HIGH end stuff is said to be a year out. (I have a set of fancy carbon race wheels on order, which I may not see until 2023....)

    It is reported by an industry type that as 2020 went on, the cycling industry ramped up hugely - but they face the same sorts of supply issues as everybody else - and even with the increased output they still couldn't meet presented demand.
    In addition to my shop I also work as a cycle mechanic and the supply of parts is quite an issue, the market was in a lot of ways in a decline with e-bikes being seen as the saviour, big retailers were cutting the amount of stock they were holding year on year and expecting importers/distributers to hold it, pre pandemic that wasn't too much of an issue as I could comfortably order most parts and get them next working day.

    There is also the wheel size issue, for years 26" was the adult bike standard for a wide range of bike types so shops could hold good stocks of basics like tyres, tubes etc without having too much cash tied up in it, then 29" came along, and 27.5", and then 27.5"+, and fat bikes, roadies started using something other than a 23c or 25c, as a result stocks of what were the common sizes got whittled down year on year as demand shifted and got spread across an increasing number of options.

    Pandemic hits, people can't go anywhere, can't do much, all the old bikes came out of the sheds and garages and guess what, they all had f-ing 26" wheels with perished tyres and tubes, suddenly running stocks and ranges down looked like a dumb move and we couldn't get stock for love nor money for a pretty long period and it's not much better now.

    Demand in general rocketed, the number of bikes being in for repair quadrupled and what used to be shop floor space for new bikes became overflow storage for repairs. The bottom line is what stock was in warehouses is gone and whatever comes into the importers is already sold on backorder and parts being listed as unavailable for 12+ months is common now.

    From everything I've seen and dates importers are giving for products to come back into stock I don't expect to see pre-pandemic stock availability until 2024 unless everyone stops cycling for a year or starts to look after their bikes better.

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    I don't think everyone will stop - I rode my first cyclocross race in nearly 2 years yesterday - I'm very slow, but it's an intense challenge, good for me, and fun. The basic sentiment everywhere around the course was "glad to see you!" and "glad to be back!" MTB racing ramped up this summer too.

    Electric assist bikes are improving rapidly - and I've spoken with a couple of folks who talk about how wonderful they are for flattening hills, keeping up with certain traffic flows, while also getting some exercise. And good lord they're cheap compared to a car, real motorcycle, even most scooters...

    (OK, there are $10K electric MTBs which are in effect race bikes with "cheater" electrics added - and they will likely quite have a foothold, because they're quite fast. But even they are cheap compared to most any car....)

    It's a good technology, just like disk brakes, thru-bolt axles, and tubeless tires for bikes in general are very good. But the transition period will make inventory problems worse.....


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