OT(?) Who gets to go back to work, and when? One perspective from Italy - Page 2
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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    Now "CDC" have started to TALK about possibility of implementing the "Korean model" in here: large scale testing and limiting the spread of the virus instead of just slowing it down.
    This was seen impossible 1 month ago when we had lot less cases but politics and local "CDC" are now starting to realize that this "slow burn" is not necessarily the best "exit strategy".
    Did they say what decade they plan to roll out testing?
    My worthless POS president, DJT, said there would be testing in every community, anyone can get tested, free. I'm still waiting to see that happen

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    Anybody know the total death rate of the virus so far compared to the flu for 2019-2020? I read somewhere the global death from flu, just plain old average flu is between 300,000 and 700,000 world wide each flu season.

    In USA the CDC info states that between 24,000 and 63,000 people died of flu in the 2019-2020 flu season. How many from virus so far?
    2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC
    SARS-Cov2: About a million people infected so far, and about 47,000 deaths. (So ~5%). If everyone's telling the truth.

    In 1918, about 500 million people (half the world population) estimated infected, with at least 50 million deaths. That's a 10-20% death rate. Affected young adults, kids, and older adults. Stats made harder to estimate because there was a world war going on, and none of the countries involved wanted to give out accurate info. Spain was neutral, and hence published its data. Hence, it's the "Spanish" flu.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    Can you guys please post your sources?

    Also if you take your 250 million number and use the realistic death by coronavirus as stated by the Italian minister of health guy of 12% your number drops down to 30 million.
    Here is a list for deaths per million: Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,245,741 Cases and 67,928 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

    Too early to say about realistic deaths, there is also totally contradictory estimates like this:
    COVID-19: Study suggests Italy death toll much higher
    https://www.thelocal.it/20200403/wha...rus-statistics

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    Quote Originally Posted by jerholz View Post
    My wife is a doctor. She was quoting some numbers like the ones some of you were asking about. She can't remember the source, but she'll try to find it again. As I recall, for my age range (60 to 70), around 15 percent of hospital admissions went on a ventilator and 1/3 of those died.

    Not real encouraging.


    Edited, 15 percent, not 85.


    Sent from my Nokia 7.1 using Tapatalk
    And what underlying conditions did they have and are these people part of the group that die of flu-like illnesses every year? The statistic that remains hidden is how many people contracted this virus and recovered at home.

    The statistic quoted looks scary but to put it in perspective:

    Likely only a small percentage of infected are admitted to hospital.

    Of those admitted 15 percent go on a ventilator and 2/3 of them survive.

    Of those admitted 5 percent die. As those admitted represent a subset of those infected what is the actual percentage of infected who die? It's certainly less than 5 percent so what is it? 2%? 1%? 0.5%? 0.2%? 0.1%? or even less?

    So in summary, 85% of 60 to 70 year olds admitted to hospital DON'T need a ventilator and of those who need a ventilator 66.6% survive.

    95% of 60 to 70 year olds admitted to hospital survive, and obviously not all 60 to 70 year olds who get the disease need to be hospitalized.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatiangirl61 View Post
    Did they say what decade they plan to roll out testing?
    My worthless POS president, DJT, said there would be testing in every community, anyone can get tested, free. I'm still waiting to see that happen
    They haven't got past talking part but at least reality and talk have been lot closer in here than in US.
    Even if there is a will the problem is that there is worldwide shortage of RT-PCR processing equipment and reagents. And large countries like US hoard the supplies as best as they can.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jerholz View Post
    My wife is a doctor. She was quoting some numbers like the ones some of you were asking about. She can't remember the source, but she'll try to find it again. As I recall, for my age range (60 to 70), around 15 percent of hospital admissions went on a ventilator and 1/3 of those died.
    Not real encouraging.
    Edited, 15 percent, not 85.
    Sent from my Nokia 7.1 using Tapatalk
    Not sure of your stats, but in China about 15% of infected people were hospitalized to begin with. And 5% (total) ended up in in critical care. I got that here.

    Aligning the 5% in critical care with your 15% on ventilators, and saying 1/3 of those died, you get 5/3% or 1.66% death rate for all infected people. There's some things that don't fit exactly, but the key thing is that 85% of patients are managed at home.

    And Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson are in our age group, and have comorbidities (Tom has diabetes, Rita had breast cancer) and have survived. And there's a 104 year old WWII veteran in Kirkland, WA, that survived and looks to be in good shape.

    I'm not saying its not dangerous, so be careful and isolate. Use good hygiene. Eat healthy and exercise if you can. But if you do get this creeping crud, you have a good chance of making it through. Best to avoid getting it, though!

    Ahhh, ScottL typed faster and had more info.

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    She found the article again. Here you go...

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext



    Sent from my Nokia 7.1 using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by jerholz View Post
    She found the article again. Here you go...

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext

    Sent from my Nokia 7.1 using Tapatalk
    Some further reading:
    https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...ublicationFile (86% of deaths, but only 15% of all cases, occurred in persons aged 70 years or older.)

    And latest info from Italy (use google translate or select translate on Chrome)
    Caratteristiche dei pazienti deceduti positivi a COVID-19 in Italia
    "9. Deaths in patients under 50 years of age
    As of April 2, 145 of the 12,550 (1.2%) positive COVID-19 patients who died under the age of 50 were 145. In particular, 35 of these were less than 40 and were 26 male and 9 female people aged between 24 and 39). Of 14 patients under the age of 40, no clinical information is available, the other 18 had serious pre-existing pathologies (cardiovascular, renal, psychiatric, diabetes, obesity) and in 3 no major pathologies were diagnosed."

    So in Italy there is only 3 verified deaths in people under 40 with no pre-existing pathologies.
    Unfortunately I'm lost cause I just turned 40

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post

    Unfortunately I'm lost cause I just turned 40
    I'll send flowers...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milland View Post
    I'll send flowers...
    I thought that you didn't believe in herbal remedies and homeopathy.
    michican buck is probably going to eat whole bunch of sweet wormwood (artemsia annua) with the seaweed

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattiJ View Post
    I thought that you didn't believe in herbal remedies and homeopathy.
    It's more to butter-up the next of kin if I want to buy some of the dearly beloved's shop equipment.


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  17. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by jerholz View Post
    She found the article again. Here you go...

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-7/fulltext



    Sent from my Nokia 7.1 using Tapatalk
    Estimates based on experience in China. As I've said before, the USA is not China and our results should be different. One thing that makes us different from Both China and Europe is our air pollution standards. We have cleaner air. We don't burn brown coal and the type of diesel popular in Europe isn't allowed to be sold here. High particulates in the air plus respiratory viruses is known to be a dangerous combination. Add in other health conditions and a percentage are going to die. We never say anyone died from the common cold but many people who died of pneumonia started with "just" a cold. Several doctors have said this virus hits hard those who are both obese and diabetic. Funny thing is that of the people I've known who died in recent years quite a few fit that profile and several of them were taken out by respiratory infections so it's not a new risk.

    I suspect when all this is over if we can get accurate data I suspect the fatality rate will be comparable to a bad flu season. And speaking of bad flu seasons prior to "COVID-19" dominating the news cycle there were numerous reports suggesting this was looking to become one of them. Did flu magically disappear on its own or are some cases listed as COVID-19 actually something else with traces of the virus present. We humans are hosts to numerous virus and bacteria but most of them aren't too harmful.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    And what underlying conditions did they have and are these people part of the group that die of flu-like illnesses every year? The statistic that remains hidden is how many people contracted this virus and recovered at home.

    The statistic quoted looks scary but to put it in perspective:

    Likely only a small percentage of infected are admitted to hospital.

    Of those admitted 15 percent go on a ventilator and 2/3 of them survive.

    Of those admitted 5 percent die. As those admitted represent a subset of those infected what is the actual percentage of infected who die? It's certainly less than 5 percent so what is it? 2%? 1%? 0.5%? 0.2%? 0.1%? or even less?

    So in summary, 85% of 60 to 70 year olds admitted to hospital DON'T need a ventilator and of those who need a ventilator 66.6% survive.

    95% of 60 to 70 year olds admitted to hospital survive, and obviously not all 60 to 70 year olds who get the disease need to be hospitalized.
    out of 1513 60/70 year olds that were admitted to a hospital 165 died, so far.
    that makes 10.9 % deaths.
    the percentage will likely go up as of those 1513 many are still admitted and might still die.
    numbers from the netherlands for the period up to april 4th

    my expectation, based on the italian numbers, is that of the 60/70 year olds between 20 and 30 % will not leave the hospital alive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Estimates based on experience in China. As I've said before, the USA is not China and our results should be different. One thing that makes us different from Both China and Europe is our air pollution standards. We have cleaner air. We don't burn brown coal and the type of diesel popular in Europe isn't allowed to be sold here. High particulates in the air plus respiratory viruses is known to be a dangerous combination. Add in other health conditions and a percentage are going to die. We never say anyone died from the common cold but many people who died of pneumonia started with "just" a cold. Several doctors have said this virus hits hard those who are both obese and diabetic. Funny thing is that of the people I've known who died in recent years quite a few fit that profile and several of them were taken out by respiratory infections so it's not a new risk.

    I suspect when all this is over if we can get accurate data I suspect the fatality rate will be comparable to a bad flu season. And speaking of bad flu seasons prior to "COVID-19" dominating the news cycle there were numerous reports suggesting this was looking to become one of them. Did flu magically disappear on its own or are some cases listed as COVID-19 actually something else with traces of the virus present. We humans are hosts to numerous virus and bacteria but most of them aren't too harmful.
    Really? Is what's going on in New York City like a bad flu season?


    Sent from my Nokia 7.1 using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by janvanruth View Post
    out of 1513 60/70 year olds that were admitted to a hospital 165 died, so far.
    that makes 10.9 % deaths.
    the percentage will likely go up as of those 1513 many are still admitted and might still die.
    numbers from the netherlands for the period up to april 4th

    my expectation, based on the italian numbers, is that of the 60/70 year olds between 20 and 30 % will not leave the hospital alive.
    Why are your numbers almost double what the Italian health ministry states?

    From the link:
    "The Italian government also released the percentage of deaths by age group.

    90+ years old: 6% of deaths
    80 – 89 years old: 42% of deaths
    70 – 79 years old: 35% of deaths
    60 – 69 years old: 16% of deaths"

    And:
    "But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

    “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

    “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says."


    It seems that of the 16% who died in the hospital 12% of them actualy died of the virus.

    Same link I posted earlier(#17):
    Report: Italian Adviser Suggests that Coronavirus Death Rates in Italy may be Exaggerated

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    Why are your numbers almost double what the Italian health ministry states?

    From the link:
    "The Italian government also released the percentage of deaths by age group.

    90+ years old: 6% of deaths
    80 – 89 years old: 42% of deaths
    70 – 79 years old: 35% of deaths
    60 – 69 years old: 16% of deaths"

    And:
    "But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

    “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

    “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” he says."


    It seems that of the 16% who died in the hospital 12% of them actualy died of the virus.

    Same link I posted earlier:
    Report: Italian Adviser Suggests that Coronavirus Death Rates in Italy may be Exaggerated
    italy states that the group of 60/70 year olds form 16 % of the total deaths
    as that age group does contribute to the total number of hospitalisations with less then 16 % the death rate will be higher than 16 %.
    the explanation by prof. riciardi that only 12 % of deaths are caused directly by covid 19 is bullshit.
    co morbidities have been proven to have rather minor effects on the death rate.
    out of all hospitalisations 65.2 % had one or more proven co morbidities.
    out of all deaths in hospitals 68.2 % had a proven co morbidity.
    so no real big difference.
    again numbers taken from the official dutch numbers up to april 4th.

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    Quote Originally Posted by janvanruth View Post
    italy states that the group of 60/70 year olds form 16 % of the total deaths
    Thanks for pointing that out, I was reading it wrong

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    Thanks for pointing that out, I was reading it wrong
    A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old.
    plus 16 % for the 60/0 year olds .
    so the above 60 year olds make 103 % of all the deaths.....
    that is why i called it bullshit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NRDock View Post
    Well, the lower that number turns out to be, the more right we have to ask if all this is worth it.
    If we want to be brutally honest, we should let it run wild, run free. There are too many humans on the planet.

    I don't think that will play well with the public though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl
    One thing that makes us different from Both China and Europe is our air pollution standards. We have cleaner air.
    This turns out to be irrelevant. At this time it seems that what does the killing is a cytokine storm, a wild "human wave" of the immune system, to the virus. So, other stuff isn't that material, it's our own immune system overreacting to kill us.

    Age definitely counts, immune systems act differently at different ages, and other health issues most likely affect what your immune system does and your general strength, but clean air or not, smokers or not (an early speculation), not so much. Women's extra x chromosome looks to be a bigger factor than anything else. And youth ... goddamit, where's my fountain of youth pills !

    Quote Originally Posted by bosleyjr
    SARS-Cov2: About a million people infected so far, and about 47,000 deaths. (So ~5%). If everyone's telling the truth.
    Don't forget tho, that when you start comparing statistics with 1918 that there's been some advance in medical sciences in the past 100 years.

    The China numbers are misleading because they blocked that city off then threw the resources of the entire country at it*. I guess we should have realized at the time that these numbers were going to be lower than other places. My experience with Chinese hospitals had me rolling my eyes and thinking China was going to look stupid, but the (lack of) political response elsewhere overshadowed China's hospital skills. Check the worldometer, woo-hoo. Basics, when applied, whups topline wonderful, sitting in the kitchen having a smoke.

    btw, when do you guys plan on learning how to run a CAT scanner ?

    Best diagnostic tool we had but you brilliant people haven't even tried yet ! Is that because if people found out how easy it is to do a CAT scan, hospitals couldn't charge the big bucks for them ? In China a CAT scan runs about $100. That'd cut into someone's profits, eh ?


    * It's kind of entertaining but also infuriating hearing all this shit about "China lying !"

    No, my friends, China (and South Korea and Taiwan and Hong Kong) had MERS and SARS and they immediately did something about this disease ! instead of sitting in their LaZBoys with their thumbs up their fat asses blabbing about "the flu" and "draconian measures" and "damage to the economy."

    Nobody is lying, you just plain old ordinary fucked up. With an epidemic, time is the biggest tool you have. This is when intelligent leadership matters. The US doesn't have that.

    Are you going to reflect and fix, or just find other people to blame for your own fuckup ?

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    I have been wondering just how this new virus compared to the ordinary, yearly bouts of the flu we have had with us for generations. Are those really the numbers?



    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    Anybody know the total death rate of the virus so far compared to the flu for 2019-2020? I read somewhere the global death from flu, just plain old average flu is between 300,000 and 700,000 world wide each flu season.

    In USA the CDC info states that between 24,000 and 63,000 people died of flu in the 2019-2020 flu season. How many from virus so far?
    2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC


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