Short/Long term future of manual/repair shops? - Page 3
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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by standardparts View Post
    In the Midwest most major cities have square miles of unused former industrial sites and if they were lucky to have the buildings demolished or burned down the land has sat idle for decades.
    But what does it sell for ? If it's like the west coast, stupid money no matter what. Heard the same thing about abandoned mill sites back east, just for fun looked at prices, ridiculous. Triple just for fun, looked at "property for sale" in the yukon, absolutely totally mentally retarded prices.

    It appears that the invisible hand of the market does not extend to real estate.

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    I will first off state, I don't know why people on here feel the need to go off on some totally irrelevant tangent that has no meaning to the discussion then others follow the damn rabbit.
    On the manual shops, several people have brought up good points, there is a cost factor involved in repair work that doesn't exist in a product mfg type shop. You will have machines that are only used once in awhile but you have to have them.
    I sold my shop few years ago and had a non compete when it ended I was bored so I started another shop.
    There is some very nice equipment available at prices you can make good money on. No you are not going to buy a gov surplus storage 24x120 monarch for 3k dollars, but 15-20k will buy you a machine that will last you the rest of your life.
    Tooling does require some investment but again you don't have to buy all new carbide insert tooling, I have been in to shops that have tens of thousands of dollars in broken carbide inserts laying in buckets. You have to learn how to use hss and this business is about making money.
    Skill is probably the most difficult issue to overcome, it will take years to learn the little tricks to overcome the problems that come up. You are not going to have all the right tooling no matter how big or how well your shop is tooled. (You will learn why the shop has bags of lead shot on the shelf it's not for trapshooting). A repair shop has to learn how to make what it needs or do with what it has, and that takes years.
    As far as work goes, I have never found a shortage of work that pays very well. In 40 years I have never advertised or marketed at all. I have started shops in 3 locations thousands of miles apart. With no cross over customer. If you are in a mining area you have to cater to the mines, if you are in a food production area you have to cater to them. This includes, equipment, material handling, inventory, knowledge.
    In summary I believe the opportunity for repair shops is only limited by the hours in the day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by McClure Machine View Post
    I will first off state, I don't know why people on here feel the need to go off on some totally irrelevant tangent that has no meaning to the discussion ...
    You think rent (or the mortgage) is irrelevant to the viability of a business ? You live in a different place than me

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    Are you looking at asking price or closing price on the commercial property. I have never paid more than 50% of asking price for commercial property. Most commercial sellers just ask stupid price expecting to get 25 to 50% in actual dollars. But every once in awhile someone will offer asking price or close to it.

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    Emanuel, I am not sure what you mean by rent mortgage not a factor.
    I was unaware I said or implied that.
    Everything is a factor toilet paper is a factor.
    But the margins in repair work is very high. If you pay 5000 month in fixed cost for property and bill 500 hours a month that's 10 bucks a hour for building.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hodge View Post
    You should ask yourself that same set of questions.

    Serious question: If you don't mind sharing, what is your occupation?
    Yet unlike you yourself and B I am only pointing out the obvious. You are on board and supporting his inane way.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dalmatiangirl61 View Post
    There have been a few farms popping up for sale around my area, modern nice looking doublewide plus a barn, sitting on a few hundred acres of alfalfa field, 1.5 million is the lowest price I've seen. I don't know what alfalfa sells for, but suspect you'd have to grow something else to cover the mortgage.
    My Dad's duplex home on a double lot about 2 miles from the beach is worth about 1.5 million right now.

    Land/houses are STUPID here. My house is up almost 75% over what I paid for it 5 years ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trueturning View Post
    Why did you decide to land here B? Was it too interesting and pertinent a discussion for you that you wish to crash? Why don’t you give it a break or at least avoid messing up a good thread?

    So you may think you are a pet yet maybe you are not and so what maybe “go cry about it why don’t you” then at least you would be doing something else rather than haunting someplace again.
    Here we go again with another trump cult member trying to wreck a perfectly good thread. Can't you read? I explained that I was just trying to respond to substandardparts comments about Biden. If you guys want to discuss Biden it won't be without me bringing up your lying, cheating piece of shit cult leader trump. Got it?

    I'm not the one that interjected politics into this thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    Here we go again with another trump cult member trying to wreck a perfectly good thread. Can't you read? I explained that I was just trying to respond to substandardparts comments about Biden. If you guys want to discuss Biden it won't be without me bringing up your lying, cheating piece of shit cult leader trump. Got it?

    I'm not the one that interjected politics into this thread.
    Seek help.

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    I have not stayed up on what shops around here are still around or doing repair work. I have not chased it myself as the other stuff I do seems to keep me busy for a bit more money and most of the time is a bit easier. That said, I have recently gotten to know a millright crew that has brought me a few repair jobs. These guys are a good fitting customer for me, they are grateful that I am willing to do it and have helped me out on a few things and deals they come across. Good guys to have in your corner. I initially bought my manual machines for my own use and projects. It has been nice that they have paid for themselves with repair work though.

    Like others here, I don't really see how a guy could make a living doing the repair work in the shop alone. There is one guy in my area that has a big service truck and a big lathe in his shop. I think he gets his work because he goes onsite. I am not for sure of course but I think if I were to only do repairs that people brought to me, it would be a once a month thing at most, I just don't think there are enough people here. With things getting harder to get in a reasonable time I may be getting more calls for it though, we'll see.

    I worked for a couple farmers and one trenching company when I was HS and college age. Like the work, but didn't like being dependent on the weather. Working on equipment in nasty conditions is not enjoyable for me, so I try not to do it, so no service truck in my future that I see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by standardparts View Post
    Here in the U.S. it's somewhat the same-- Show me an auto racing facility or maybe an airport and it seems people gravitate and build near it. In the Midwest most major cities have square miles of unused former industrial sites and if they were lucky to have the buildings demolished or burned down the land has sat idle for decades. Usually the city just about has to pay developers to build something on it. Those areas are unlikely to experience gentrification
    I havent been to Milwaukee for a while- but the last time I was in Milwaukee and Chicago, the manufacturing kept leaving town.
    The problem I have found is that there isnt work where there is cheap real estate.
    I lived and had my shop in LA for ten years- and there was so much manufacturing and industry and suppliers and WORK within 50 miles of me it was stunning.
    When you fly into LA from the east, you literally fly over 100 miles of 20,000 sq foot and up warehouses and industrial buildings. All the way from the outskirts of Palm Springs. I could get any industrial product or material from a local distributor, in stock.
    Lots of work, in every field, (Oil, transportation, forging and stamping, they even have a steel mill, not to mention consumer goods, electronics, aerospace, apparell, and much more)
    The drawback was- high real estate prices.

    Same thing up here in the state of Boeing, where I live now- tons of work, money flows. My rural county is full of high tech and Boeing subs, working from garages to 100,000 sq foot shops. Most people are backed up for months.

    But you would not believe the prices- a mobile home on an acre this side of the mountains is pretty much a half million, from Vancouver BC to Portland.
    If you want industrial zoned property with 3 phase and freeway access, its Beverly Hills prices.

    Wouldnt do me much good to have a 40,000 sq foot industrial building on 5 acres for a hundred grand, if it was 1000 miles from high paying customers.
    I wanted to buy an old fab shop like that in Pittsburgh in the 80s- it was a bit over 200k, with 50,000 sq ft under roof, overhead cranes, a 1000 amps- but there wasnt the work to support the mortgage payments. Similar spot south of Seattle in the industrial suburbs, today, would be 5 to 10 million, and they sell fast.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    Here we go again with another trump cult member trying to wreck a perfectly good thread. Can't you read? I explained that I was just trying to respond to substandardparts comments about Biden. If you guys want to discuss Biden it won't be without me bringing up your lying, cheating piece of shit cult leader trump. Got it?

    I'm not the one that interjected politics into this thread.
    I think holding your restraint might be a good public service short of you just banning yourself. Your posts are 5-1 minimum. Just step off the merry go round.

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    Quote Originally Posted by McClure Machine View Post
    Emanuel, I am not sure what you mean by rent mortgage not a factor.
    Sorry, I thought you were wackimng us for going off-topic about real estate prices. In my experience, that's the single largest factor in prices these days.

    All this talk about low-cost labor but I bet you could have free labor but if your rent is a billion a month, not a chance to compete on price.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    All this talk about low-cost labor but I bet you could have free labor but if your rent is a billion a month, not a chance to compete on price.
    If a repair shop is competing on price, than they might as well turn out the lights and hang up the keys. Yes, price is a factor but it is only one part of the equation when figuring out costs for repair and downtime.

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    Back in post #28 (sorry, I'm late to the show) it was stated: "We're dealing with 20%+ more stuff than we ever have."

    Here is the Port of Los Angeles data. In September 2020, there were a total of 602,191.25 TEU loaded. In September of 2021, there were a total of 543,772.65 TEU loaded. A 9.7% decrease. There was a large increase year on year way back in March. There's something else going on in LA.

    Container Statistics | Port of Los Angeles

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    Quote Originally Posted by wheels17 View Post
    Back in post #28 (sorry, I'm late to the show) it was stated: "We're dealing with 20%+ more stuff than we ever have."

    Here is the Port of Los Angeles data. In September 2020, there were a total of 602,191.25 TEU loaded. In September of 2021, there were a total of 543,772.65 TEU loaded. A 9.7% decrease. There was a large increase year on year way back in March. There's something else going on in LA.

    Container Statistics | Port of Los Angeles
    Same stats show the imports are almost the same, but the exports are down over 40% and empty containers in storage is up 28%.

    There are numerous news stories about containers stacking up and lots being out of space to put them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ries View Post
    would be 5 to 10 million, and they sell fast.
    Just for my own curiosity, what kind of shop rate is a place like that charging? Or are these all non mfg locations now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Talinthon View Post
    If a repair shop is competing on price, than they might as well turn out the lights and hang up the keys. Yes, price is a factor but it is only one part of the equation when figuring out costs for repair and downtime.
    If the price of repair is twice as much as buyng a new one, as it has to be if your 5,000 sq foot shop goes for 2.5 million, then you ain't gonna sell no repairs, neither.

    Price is always a factor. A major factor.

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels17
    Here is the Port of Los Angeles data. In September 2020, there were a total of 602,191.25 TEU loaded. In September of 2021, there were a total of 543,772.65 TEU loaded. A 9.7% decrease. There was a large increase year on year way back in March. There's something else going on in LA.
    I pawed through that article as well ... one thing I noticed that was barely mentioned was, there's no drivers. Nobody wants to drive a truck anymore. They even talked about making CDL requirements lower. It seems like one reason for the shortage is, since Smokey and the Bandit days they have made driving a truck so miserable that no one wants to do it anymore.

    Another thing I saw was, the people doing transportation in the US are brainless maroons. A lot of containers unloaded in LA go back east. Could they run the trains directly under the portainers so the load goes from ship to train ?

    Of course not. Ship to truck, truck to railyard three miles away, then truck to train. With a few extra stops for storage, just to make it all work better.

    Stupid.

    They do this ignorant crappy-ass shit all the time. Extended BART to SFO .. but did they extend it to the airport ? Hell no, they got a half mile away then made people walk. Oakland airport to Bart, they finally put in an extra stupid little unmanned cable car, for an extra fee, but I guess they can claim at least you can get there. Then what do they do ? Charge three times as much for the airport stops as the next several stops farther away.

    They don't want to make transport easy and fast in the US, they are too busy either being stupid or fucking people over.

    Shanghai : ONE FUCKING BUILDING : Airport. Trains to anywhere. Buses to anywhere. Subway to downtown. What's the subway cost to almost anywhere in the city ? Thirty-six cents. wtf is wrong with the US ? Why can't you fucking do ANYTHING that makes sense ?

    It seriously appears that a big part of the mess is that the whole system was designed by incompetent bozos. And they are no better at running it than they were at designing it. But I betcha they are all pulling in well over $200,000 a year in salary ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garwood View Post
    Same stats show the imports are almost the same, but the exports are down over 40% and empty containers in storage is up 28%.

    There are numerous news stories about containers stacking up and lots being out of space to put them.
    I am getting quotes 200% higher plus shipping on used shipping containers. You would think they might lower the price.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    Our current president could do what our last president did and lie to us. He could just tell us that the ports are running 24/7 and the shortages are caused by the Chinese or blame someone else. Instead he relies on reality and tells us that his goal is to see ports running 24/7.

    I wonder how those six new steel mills that our last president told us about are doing.
    Talk about a cultist SMH


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