Short/Long term future of manual/repair shops? - Page 4
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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    If the price of repair is twice as much as buyng a new one, as it has to be if your 5,000 sq foot shop goes for 2.5 million, then you ain't gonna sell no repairs, neither.

    Price is always a factor. A major factor.


    I pawed through that article as well ... one thing I noticed that was barely mentioned was, there's no drivers. Nobody wants to drive a truck anymore. They even talked about making CDL requirements lower. It seems like one reason for the shortage is, since Smokey and the Bandit days they have made driving a truck so miserable that no one wants to do it anymore.

    Another thing I saw was, the people doing transportation in the US are brainless maroons. A lot of containers unloaded in LA go back east. Could they run the trains directly under the portainers so the load goes from ship to train ?

    Of course not. Ship to truck, truck to railyard three miles away, then truck to train. With a few extra stops for storage, just to make it all work better.

    Stupid.

    They do this ignorant crappy-ass shit all the time. Extended BART to SFO .. but did they extend it to the airport ? Hell no, they got a half mile away then made people walk. Oakland airport to Bart, they finally put in an extra stupid little unmanned cable car, for an extra fee, but I guess they can claim at least you can get there. Then what do they do ? Charge three times as much for the airport stops as the next several stops farther away.

    They don't want to make transport easy and fast in the US, they are too busy either being stupid or fucking people over.

    Shanghai : ONE FUCKING BUILDING : Airport. Trains to anywhere. Buses to anywhere. Subway to downtown. What's the subway cost to almost anywhere in the city ? Thirty-six cents. wtf is wrong with the US ? Why can't you fucking do ANYTHING that makes sense ?

    It seriously appears that a big part of the mess is that the whole system was designed by incompetent bozos. And they are no better at running it than they were at designing it. But I betcha they are all pulling in well over $200,000 a year in salary ...
    And here you are...tormented and living in exile.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteelrFn View Post
    Talk about a cultist SMH
    You trump cult members try your best to ruin every thread here. Give it a rest.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    You trump cult members try your best to ruin every thread here. Give it a rest.
    Seek help.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteelrFn View Post
    Talk about a cultist SMH
    BTW, I saw that your cult god had some not very kind words at the passing of Colin Powell. He also said that he hoped the media would say nice things about him after he dies. Sure thing. Like we're all glad that piece of garbage is dead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by standardparts View Post
    Seek help.
    Says the guy who tried to derail this thread. You cult members just can't stop it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post

    Shanghai : ONE FUCKING BUILDING : Airport. Trains to anywhere. Buses to anywhere. Subway to downtown. What's the subway cost to almost anywhere in the city ? Thirty-six cents. wtf is wrong with the US ? Why can't you fucking do ANYTHING that makes sense ?
    The simple answer is that in the USA we have been brainwashed into believing that anything the government does is bad and private enterprise can and will do it better. But it comes at a steep price and if private enterprise can't make a profit at it they won't do it. Government has the ability to do things right without a profit motive but there's too much crying and screaming from some in our society that they don't want to pay any taxes to fund things.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    You trump cult members try your best to ruin every thread here. Give it a rest.
    You really ought to look in the mirror, maybe try it while your at your next therapist session or anger management meeting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big B View Post
    Says the guy who tried to derail this thread. You cult members just can't stop it.
    Seek help.

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    Quote Originally Posted by standardparts View Post
    Seek help.

    ↑↑↑↑This ↑↑↑↑

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    [QUOTE=EmanuelGoldstein;3828385

    Shanghai : ONE FUCKING BUILDING : Airport. Trains to anywhere. Buses to anywhere. Subway to downtown. What's the subway cost to almost anywhere in the city ? Thirty-six cents. wtf is wrong with the US ? Why can't you fucking do ANYTHING that makes sense ?
    [/QUOTE]

    So a weeks wages to take a train. Got it

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    Well this thread went off the rails bad in the last few hours. Here's a couple of my observations anyways:

    I started in a small job shop in 2005, straight out of high school. It was right out of the 70s and it was small; 3 Tos lathes, knee mill, radial arm drill, and a welding/fab bay. Dimly lit, smoky (I'll never get the smell of RapidTap out of my nose), you couldn't see the concrete under the 2" layer of chips. But, they made money. Lots of industrial repair (excavators, concrete trucks, hydraulics, cranes, small marine) and plenty of walk in business to fill out the time cards (I once saw the boss weld together someone's broken wok for cash).

    Not long after I started there, something changed and the work started drying up, even though we were seeing a building/construction boom in town. Here's a specific example: fixing concrete pump truck parts was an almost daily job when I started, and most of the trucks in town were German made (Putzmeister was a brand I think). Then seemingly overnight everyone started buying new Korean built trucks, and the parts were cheaper to replace then repair; poof, no more concrete pump truck work. Same goes for excavator parts. And hydraulic components. And on and on. Someone early in the thread brought up our disposable society. Not only do we throw broken stuff away and replace it, we've been taught(especially younger people) that tossing and replacing is the ONLY way. Maybe this has changed since COVID hit and the supply chain has collapsed - I'm several years removed from the job shop life.

    Real estate prices are a big factor, but that topic has been well covered in the thread, so I'll move along.

    When my friends came to visit me at work at that first shop, they all scratched their heads as to WHY I wanted to work in a place like that. It took me more than a decade to realize that I DIDN'T want to work in a place like that! Modern standards for workplaces have changed, and while I've seen most manufacturing/CNC shops adapt accordingly (clean floors, bright, well ventilated, creature comforts) manual job shops haven't kept up, at least not in my area. Some of this goes back to the price of real estate, and some of it is due to razor thin margins that make this type of upgrading difficult, but if someone is serious about attracting skilled workers (especially skilled young workers that can be trained), this is non negotiable. Workers want to like where they work, not just the amount on their paycheck.

    I still think there is a place for manual job shops: I can make a simple part manually WAY faster than programming and setting up a CNC machine. But it's an uphill battle, and starting a new shop right now is REALLY hard to do given the cost of entry. Maybe if reshoring efforts are actually successful, the landscape will change somewhat. Maybe not.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SteelrFn View Post
    So a weeks wages to take a train. Got it
    Actually, no, dumbfuck, what you got is a giant turd between your ears. Minimum salary in Shanghai is $1500 a month. The people getting that also get meals and a place to stay. One month bonus every February. Inexpensive medical. And if the subway is too expensive, you can take the buses, for 12 cents. They also go everywhere but not as fast, due to traffic.

    None of which changes the fact that taking a container off a ship, putting it on a truck, driving it five miles to the rail yard, taking it off the truck and setting it in a pile, then later on taking it off the pile to put on a railcar is stupid. Beneath stupid.

    At some point in time the US fell off the turnip truck. It's amazing to me just how fucked up so much stuff is here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by macgyver View Post
    Just for my own curiosity, what kind of shop rate is a place like that charging? Or are these all non mfg locations now?
    they are all Amazon and Microsoft and Google and Facebook, in Seattle.

    I have a neighbor who fixed cars in Seattle for 40 years.
    The garage building that he bought for maybe 80 grand in the late 70s- he sold it for millions and retired to the country.
    He collects Desoto (not Chrysler) Airflows now.
    Obviously, no cars are being fixed on the site of that garage now.
    Its a ten story building of offices, or 2 dozen 800,000$ condos now.

    Which is why there are so few manual repair shops left in my State.

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    Obviously Im in the closed shop/sold out for 7 figures group.....but I know for a fact that computers have killed the heavy iron repair /maintenance business.....you can fix axles and shafts,but if the computer is gone away ,thats a $10,000 replacement from a lot of machine manufacturers.........you can even get a whiz kid to fix the computer......but he cant replace the lost program......and do you think the manufacturer says "No worries,free download here?".....Like hell,manufacturer says "Proprietary rights".....you buy new computer with program ...or him not go anymore"

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    The best example of throw away I know is phones.....new upgrade/new model/new colour comes out ,good working phones are thrown away for the latest......now if this isnt training for a new extreme throw away society ,I dont know what is .....not throw away what could be fixed,but throw away what is working perfectly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by standardparts View Post
    And here you are...tormented and living in exile.
    Chances are pretty good that the virus situation will be cleared up a long time before the US gets rid of all the progressives and democrats you hate.

    I win

    Quote Originally Posted by john.k
    The best example of throw away I know is phones
    They force that on people. Even if you try to hang onto your old working laptop or phone, any time you try to do anything "your browser is too old ! Unsupported !" (and more important, doesn't work.)

    If you are a really cantankerous old bastard maybe you're willing to fight that fight but most people, not. It's a never-ending battle. Google is still trying to get my birthday, and it'll be a cold day in hell before they do.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    I pawed through that article as well ... one thing I noticed that was barely mentioned was, there's no drivers. Nobody wants to drive a truck anymore. They even talked about making CDL requirements lower. It seems like one reason for the shortage is, since Smokey and the Bandit days they have made driving a truck so miserable that no one wants to do it anymore.
    Not only that but the CARB (Calif Air Resources Board) says all trucks must be no older than 3 yrs to meet emissions standards. So not a huge amount of trucks either. If you have a new enough truck would you want to do mind knumbing shuttling of containers all day long or get out on the road and escape the city for a bit...

    This article from last week does a good job explaining this:

    The California Version of The Green New Deal and an October 16, 2020, EPA Settlement With Transportation is What's Creating The Container Shipping Backlog - Working CA Ports 24/7 Will Not Help, Here's Why - The Last Refuge

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rob F. View Post
    Not only that but the CARB (Calif Air Resources Board) says all trucks must be no older than 3 yrs to meet emissions standards.
    I'm sure that is a factor. But that's only LA. Oakland and Seattle also have ships stacked up to the rafters. It's not just one single thing.

    And I have no idea what this big deal is with 24/7 ... a friend and I used to replace the glass floors in the cranes in Oakland. The place ran whenever there was a ship in, they didn't care what time or what day it was. They have been capable of running full time all the time forever.

    btw, some of what that article says is horseshit. We've been shipping from the US to China for about thirty years. Prices from the east coast are not much more than prices from the west coast. Sometimes less. Time isn't that much different either. An extra ten days, who cares ?

    Sometimes we've had stuff go all the way around the world, the long way, get handled twice, and the costs were not that different. Other factors play a bigger role than how far. Some ports you avoid at all costs because they will fleece you bad and steal your stuff, others are good but can't handle heavy, some are good for ships but the trucking is the pits, etc etc. Every port has its own special characteristics. Distance is not the only criteria.

    p.s. The article's map shows a route to New York. No one with an IQ over three would ever go to New York ! That's crazy. Worst place on the planet, even Baltimore is better. Charlotte is maybe the best on the east coast. And the middle, like Chicago and Cincinnati, suck worse because the damn trucking will eat you alive. Trucking sucks.

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    AS to no truck drivers.....not only is a driver harassed and penalised by the law the moment the truck hits the road,but now we have the situation where a freight line has sued a driver for damage to rig and freight in a rollover ,and won a $500,000 judgement against the driver.....someone asked me the other day if Id shift a truck and low loader he d just bought ,answer of no upset him ,but no way will I ever be on the roads in a truck any more.

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    It seems many of you guys don't understand how the world works. What makes life better for all is PRODUCTIVITY. 100 guys working in a factory making one specialized new part is way more productive than 25 little repair shops with four guys working in each fixing that broken/worn out part. Set aside for now how inefficient the actual work flow is and just look at the wasted real estate. 25 bathrooms, 25 foyers, 25 HVAC systems, 25 phone systems. 25 payroll systems. I could go on and on but you get the drift. The factory gets by with maybe 3-4 bathrooms, 1 larger foyer, a few large HVAC systems, 1 phone system with a few extra phones, 1 payroll system.

    When more gets done by fewer men using less resources it is more productive and the now surplus men and resources can do something else. No different than using a backhoe instead if 10 guys with shovels. I know many of you are cheap SOBs like me and always look for a deal. We are the ones who put the small hardware stores out of business because Home Depot had a better selection and better prices. Over many years we chose to buy cheaper Chinese stuff over more expensive American made phones, computers, etc.

    Those factory jobs where each guy does one thing over and over take much less skill than guys who have deal with fixing parts each of which might have a slightly different problem. That low skill level means the work can be done overseas by less educated cheaper labor and the more educated labor can move on to higher level tasks.

    The only things worth fixing these days are things very expensive to manufacture. Replacement is the way to go for more and more things every day. Back in the 1980's I paid a tidy sum for a computer and there was a little computer store/ repair shop on every corner. They are all gone and a broken computer is a disposable item. Due to more EFFICIENCY, the computing power to cost ratio is 1,000 times better than in the 1980's and we are all better for it.

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