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  1. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oldwrench View Post
    Let's see, in the US as of the other day the Wuhan bat-soup virus had accounted for ~550 deaths in 2020 and ordinary flu ~23,000. Sorry, just not gonna panic—nor blame it on Trump. If it does indeed "overwhelm the healthcare system" then open borders will likely become a thing of the past.
    Locally the hospital system is not being overwhelmed but it is being strained. ALL hospital workers, even those with no contact with the public are being ordered to wear the same PPE as health care workers. Any question why supplies are short? Panicked people are coming in symptomless wanting to be tested, or with mild symptoms seeking hospitalization ("before I need a ventilator, doctor"). The flood of non-critical patients are consuming resources and diverting nurses and doctors from other duties, straining the system.

    There is a bit of good news among this. There are no heart attack patients, or victims of cuts, burns, falls, and traffic accidents. It must be true because the media are saying the ER facilities are limited to caring for coronavirus cases and they wouldn't lie, would they?

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    @Scottl - but wait, there's a conflict. LOTs of people appear to have asymptomatic disease. And it appears to spread before even mild symptoms appear in those who have them. Which means the only sure ways to contain it would be to (a) test everybody exposed and (b) protect everybody from everybody else.

    We cannot actually do either. Hence the actually pretty crude shelter in place orders.

    Traffic accidents are in fact down (or so I read) - but heart attacks and strokes are likely not..... (But neither of them is contagious...)

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    @Scottl - but wait, there's a conflict. LOTs of people appear to have asymptomatic disease. And it appears to spread before even mild symptoms appear in those who have them. Which means the only sure ways to contain it would be to (a) test everybody exposed and (b) protect everybody from everybody else.

    We cannot actually do either. Hence the actually pretty crude shelter in place orders.

    Traffic accidents are in fact down (or so I read) - but heart attacks and strokes are likely not..... (But neither of them is contagious...)
    But they have to be treated SOMEWHERE and story after story about ERs only accepting coronavirus patients have been run.

  4. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    We cannot actually do either. Hence the actually pretty crude shelter in place orders.
    Yahbut... "Crude approximations, bound up in rope" is how The Iron Duke whupped Bonaparte's side, Peninsular campaign , from a weaker position, and with but a fraction of the resources, strategic minds and experience among those.

    So it wasn't really original when cousin G.S. Patton, jr. said - more than once, and slighty differently each go as he was ever and always practicing at the showmanship of it:

    "A good plan, violently executed right NOW will always beat a more perfect plan, delayed a week."

    Imperfectly conceived, imperfectly executed, isolation or the ATTEMPT at it, has been a clear and significant PLUS .. if not also a salvation.

    "Blame games", funny-money still being argued over as hasn't actually REACHED anybody, and jockeying for political advantage, OTOH?

    Just how many lives d'you suppose THOSE have saved, to date?

    One might guess a "negative number"?


  5. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    @Scottl - but wait, there's a conflict. LOTs of people appear to have asymptomatic disease. And it appears to spread before even mild symptoms appear in those who have them. Which means the only sure ways to contain it would be to (a) test everybody exposed and (b) protect everybody from everybody else.

    We cannot actually do either. Hence the actually pretty crude shelter in place orders.

    Traffic accidents are in fact down (or so I read) - but heart attacks and strokes are likely not..... (But neither of them is contagious...)
    But they have to be treated SOMEWHERE and story after story about ERs only accepting coronavirus patients have been run.

    PS: When you say "appear" and "appears" are you talking from real scientific data or from media stories? If you sift through all the stories the composite that appears is a Hollywood style Andromeda Strain type of disease that defies all the known rules. The virus also appears to be intelligent because after young people reacted to earlier stories about it mainly affecting the elderly with existing problems by going to the beach the virus quickly shifted gears and started attacking young people all over the globe. This clever virus also can use incubation periods ranging from 3 to as many as 24 days* and will likely adapt itself to periods of 90 days or longer after plans are made to release the population from lockdown.

    * Coronavirus incubation period may be much longer than once thought

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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    Traffic accidents are in fact down (or so I read) ...
    So is overall crime.
    But who in the hell wants to steal overalls?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Booze Daily View Post
    So is overall crime.
    But who in the hell wants to steal overalls?
    Phht, No accounting as to what is attractive to a thief.

    They steal toads, don't they?

    Make safety boots out of them.

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  10. #188
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    On the subject of shutdowns and cash flow to shop owners.
    How long will you carry health insurance on your employees if they are not working? 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, more?
    If they paid a portion out of their check what about that money?

    Question two, if you are open and a employee does not want to come in contact with a large group of people each day do you terminate them for not showing up if out of PTO?
    Bob

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  12. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    On the subject of shutdowns and cash flow to shop owners.
    How long will you carry health insurance on your employees if they are not working? 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, more?
    If they paid a portion out of their check what about that money?

    Question two, if you are open and a employee does not want to come in contact with a large group of people each day do you terminate them for not showing up if out of PTO?
    Bob
    What we ALWAYS do, Bob. Make the best and most appropriate judgement calls we can with what we have to go on in the moment. Then take responsibility. Regardless of the outcome.

    White House, State House, Mass-Media, Blame-game snipers, nor any OTHER whore-house isn't taking care of needs. Sound-effects department - the louder and more useless the more commmon. It's what THEY DO.

    Self, family, friends, "correspondents in general" do the real work.

    "Decision Makers", schoolkids to CEO's of the largest firms.

    T'was ever thus. Messy, but resilient.

    No hive mentality nor Queen Bee nor omniscient oracles in our resource set any more than "Free Lunch" - promises of which are always to be paid-for at a stiff premium in due course.

    Waste of time to seek advice as if there were any such "magic".

    JFDWT

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    ...
    PS: When you say "appear" and "appears" are you talking from real scientific data or from media stories? If you sift through all the stories the composite that appears is a Hollywood style Andromeda Strain type of disease that defies all the known rules. The virus also appears to be intelligent because after young people reacted to earlier stories about it mainly affecting the elderly with existing problems by going to the beach the virus quickly shifted gears and started attacking young people all over the globe. This clever virus also can use incubation periods ranging from 3 to as many as 24 days* and will likely adapt itself to periods of 90 days or longer after plans are made to release the population from lockdown.

    * Coronavirus incubation period may be much longer than once thought
    Then there's this adjacent story...

    Nude woman ignores coronavirus warnings, straddles NYC's 'Charging Bull'

    Maybe a takeoff on the Naked Cowboy?

    Seems plausible that the incubation period could be longer. And of course, being a virus, it mutates.

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  15. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by neilho View Post
    Seems plausible that the incubation period could be longer. And of course, being a virus, it mutates.
    Yahbut.. por dumb virus has to deal with a pervasive and dynamic skin disease on this ball of dirt. Pesky HUMANS.

    Talk about an "incubation" period?

    We've been at it through an ice-age or three, ain't learnt some s**t YET, got tricks up our sleeves ain't even had the shrink-wrap bustid!

    Even so, the cleverer buggers amongst 'em are forever finding weird ways to cold-cock whatever dares to trifle with them whilst they invent the next major f**k-up.

    Safe bet we shall do so again.

    "Safe" if only 'coz if yah LOSE, who TF will be left to try to collect on yer loss, anyway!


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    There is no wrong or right answer.
    We furloughed about 14 highly skilled lawyers and similar .. today.
    No-one is fired.

    Customers cannot come to see us, cannot see potential investments, etc.
    I expect about 90 days disruptment.

    But after the first corona wave is over, a big wave of vulture funds and new entrepreneurs will appear.

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  18. #193
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    @ScottL - I actually chase media stories to the published science whenever I can. You will find those reports MUCH less full of bombast and click bait, and much more full of "% seen so far" and "on small samples" sorts of things. And the maybes, yabuts, etc. For example, it is *reported* that some people seem to have recovered, and then be reinfected. Maybe. Or maybe when they were thought recovered they still had virus which didn't show in the test, and/or they are now really recovered but still have virus particles. One report in I think the WSJ quotes a Chinese scientist reporting that their test probably only detect 50% of so of cases. (I couldn't find an English source for that.)

    By the way, I've seen ZERO reports saying "emergencies other than covid go away" at WA hospitals. NOW, they ARE canceling or delaying any elective procedure they can (governor's order) due to resource issues, and they ARE telling people with disease that isn't serious to just stay home and call their doctor. Some number of people (including me decades ago) don't have a regular Dr. so they go to the ER for things like normal sore throats. That's all dubious, but it's really bad right now (you might get covid in the ER waiting room, you are taking up a slot needed for somebody truly sick, etc.)

    BUT MORE - it *IS* possible for a medical system to be so overwhelmed that they cannot attend to your issue. This apparently happened in China, and is by many reports happening in Northern Italy right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    We furloughed about 14 highly skilled lawyers and similar .. today.
    .
    Is that an upside of the virus?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  21. #195
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    Default More to pont - how well set are you to respond to repeated shutdowns?

    Every opinon I've seen suggests that isolation cannot be perfect enough to just outwait the disease. Meaning that in 3 weeks, 6 weeks, or even 2 years, ending "social distance" will likely cause another wave.

    And various serious folks, have suggested that we NEED to open up - get some herd immunity via exposure, amd then when critical patients start to run ahead of ventilator capacity, shut down again. So it won't be "the shutdown" and we're done, but rather a series of them. Until enough of use are resistent (via disease or vaccine) that it no longer runs wild through our population.

    So that raises a new question - how will you keep your org working after that? Everybody work from home for 3 weeks, then PLEASE come back, then in a few weeks we'll do this again....

    The related question - which orgs will still be viable after the side effects of the shutdowns (airlines in collapse, etc.) come home to roost?

  22. #196
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanermo View Post
    ....
    We furloughed about 14 highly skilled lawyers and similar .. today.
    Furloughed, nice word.
    Lawyers making 6 figures plus are different than workers making 10-20 dollars per hour.
    One side can afford a unpaid vacation and buying health insurance, the other not so much.
    Around here I know many really hurting already and this coming government check is not going to cover it.
    How deep to go to cover your team that has been loyal for years even if a pain in the ass sometimes.

    Do you cash in your profit sharing or retirement money to fund it if need be? They did help you earn it during the good times.
    What is "Make the best and most appropriate judgement calls we can with what we have to go on in the moment. Then take responsibility.".
    Where is moral responsibly and company financial responsibly and the line to be drawn?
    Tough calls to be made now and down the pike and different views I am sure.
    Bob

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  24. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by bryan_machine View Post
    . . . The related question - which orgs will still be viable after the side effects of the shutdowns (airlines in collapse, etc.) come home to roost?
    Seems to me, all this gets much easier once we have reliable testing, at scale, and catch up a bit. That time bought by social distancing. And as you say, perhaps repeated bouts of social distancing. Testing gives reliable numbers to manage that.

    Once we have testing, people with the virus stay home (with paid unemployment) - or visit a hospital that still has capacity (ramped up while we distance ourselves) to deal with those most ill.

    Those who have solo businesses and/or can work from home do so until we're sure about medical capacity. We do what we can to keep each business capable of managing the risk open.

    Ideally we learn some what medicines and treatment protocols increase the odds of survival.

    Those already with anti-bodies go back to work.

    In "theory" each person just loses 2 or 3 weeks of time until we get a vaccine. Just a "vacation." They test into a stay at home (or hospital if needed) and test, once well and with antibodies, back into the workforce.

    Once we have a vaccine and a bit of herd immunity, then it's "just" the flu.

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  26. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    .....
    In "theory" each person just loses 2 or 3 weeks of time until we get a vaccine. Just a "vacation." They test into a stay at home (or hospital if needed) and once well back into the workforce. Once we have a vaccine and a bit of herd immunity, then it's "just" the flu.
    No, not the way it is working.... Do you have employees?
    In auto we get forced vacation and shutdown during changeover, this is not anywhere near the same.
    Bob

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarbideBob View Post
    No, not the way it is working.... Do you have employees?
    In auto we get forced vacation during changeover, this is not anywhere near the same.
    Bob

    Like I said, in "theory." However, auto industries have managed for decades missing most of an assembly line various Friday's, the first day of hunting season, etc. Add in strikes and wildcat strikes and auto companies have managed this before. If we had accurate tests, at scale, it could go something like this:

    - We buy some time and use it effectively during the current shut down.
    - Each employee is tested coming back. Again in "theory" no one has it who tests OK to come to work. In reality, the tests aren't perfect.
    - A big plant might want their own testing machine, or work with their nearest medical facility to scale up.
    - Employees are asked to social distance when not a work. Idea is once they're tested "good" they're not getting CoV-2 at a bar.
    - The new regime for clocking in includes an instant temperature test, followed by actual testing on the slightest concern.
    - Probably separate the plant by zones or departments. Different doors in and out etc. Limit group size with actual contact.
    - Greater level of distancing at work. Most lines, the workers are already 6' apart. Machine operators still further apart.
    - Good hygiene etc. Maybe some wash stations out on the shop floor.
    - We still miss some cases due to no symptoms. Catch them quick as we can, the workers get paid to go home and get well.
    - Those sick go home, get treatment, isolate from their family and community. Come back to work after well and antibodies present.
    - In "theory" the time an employee who checks in good, then gets it, gets quickly ID'd and recovers at home or in a hospital is around 2 weeks. 3+ more likely.
    - Gradually everyone either gets it or we find a vaccine.
    - No one gets to plan their vacation this year. The virus will be doing that for us.
    - Next model year changeover is when we have a fairly stable workforce and supply chain. Meanwhile bargains a-plenty on existing models.

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    IM/HO demand will solve those troubles.

    I would guess that a line could be put back into action at half speed and still meet the demand for the rest of the year.

    Maybe have 1 person doo two stations of work and run the line at half speed.

    Maybe half are laid off?
    Maybe each person works 3 day weeks and the line spits out parts at 1/2 rate, 2 people work 24 hours and get some sort of help on the other side - rather than 1 going to work and earning their wage, and the other staying home and getting paid about the same?
    Or maybe they each work every other week and unemployment or whatnot the other week?

    May not be what either person signed up for, but these aint THOSE times currently either...
    Keep in mind that it aint what Big3 (or any other employer) signed up for either.


    ---------------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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