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  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by neilho View Post
    It's too late for the testing, tracking, quarantining approach in the more infected areas. It could work in the less infected areas, but that requires acceptance that the crisis exists, commitment to the approach and a willingness to tailor the response to the situation.

    The testing, tracking, quarantining approach requires rapid testing (which we don't have) cooperation from the populace for tracking (which Americans are unlikely to accept) and the large team to gather the data, manage it, make decisions, enforce them and follow up with patients. The USA simply doesn't have that infrastructure in place, even if we were willing to adopt it. South Korea and China did.
    Probably no point in arguing this since the US simply won't do it, but it could be done. You have the army, the navy, the air force, the national guard and the police. Firemen mostly sitting on their asses. "First responders" who mostly sit on their asses. Retired people who can step in. Laid-off people who can do tracking and followup. There are huge resources that are simply untapped. Yes, China has more gate guards already in place, but many if not most of those other positions are retired guys, housewives with nothing to do, students, street sweepers, janitors, volunteers, all different kinds of people stuck into an orange vest and sent out to do a job.

    To succeed, you need the public behind this. And you need someone at the top who is practical and to an extent trustworthy and persuasive. You need cooperation and fortitude, that's the hard part. The isolation task itself is actually rather simple.

    p.s. You already have tracking in place. Google knows everywhere we go and everything we do, even if you purposely avoid them. The phone companies can track you every minute of the day. The US has the world's largest tracking operation already in place, but you are unwilling to use it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PeteM View Post
    Seems to me, all this gets much easier once we have reliable testing, at scale, and catch up a bit. That time bought by social distancing. And as you say, perhaps repeated bouts of social distancing. Testing gives reliable numbers to manage that.

    Once we have testing, people with the virus stay home (with paid unemployment) - or visit a hospital that still has capacity (ramped up while we distance ourselves) to deal with those most ill.
    All very true. We hope to have testing available soon is what it amounts to. We done screwed the pooch there. The ideal is testing everyone, or at the least, the ability to test everyone who wants to be tested.

    What we don't have, as Rabbi Goldstein points out, is the organized, large group of people doing what needs to be done and the public will to do it. We also need resolved and dedicated leadership at the top.

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    And that is the difference between our systems. While your warm and fuzzy totalitarian state has the power to do anything it wants to its subjects the USA is a different matter. Our nation was founded on the principles of individual liberty and while the U.S. Constitution has been severely infringed during past "emergencies" it is still the law of the land and supposed to put limits on government overreach.

    There are so many things wrong with your post that I almost don't know where to begin. It sounds as if you are suggesting the military be used in a civil enforcement role which is a direct violation of the Posse Comitatus act, and therefore a crime.

    Firemen are not "sitting on their ass" and neither are police. In addition to traffic accidents there are in-home health emergencies that must be responded to and if a smoke detector or Carbon Monoxide detector is triggered without obvious cause the fire department must respond.

    Your suggestion that retirees and other civilians be pressed into some kind of national service is absurd, and while it may be fine for China and Cuba it won't fly here. What is happening already is a massive power grab, likely soon to be followed by a pennies on the dollar asset takeover by wealthy individuals and corporations that will make the great Country Duck Dinner (takeover of the assets of rural banks) during the Great Depression look trivial by comparison.

    And that is exactly how this is shaping up. While much of the population cowers in fear created by spectacular and exaggerated news stories, people with evil intent are already laying the groundwork for sweeping new government powers and monopolization of commerce. If they are successful the America that emerges will be unrecognizable from that which preceded this latest "crisis" and the precedent will have been set for more of the same in the future.

    Unchecked, what will emerge is a two class, dystopian society ruled by the wealthy and powerful while the greater mass of people live lives of misery and want.

    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Probably no point in arguing this since the US simply won't do it, but it could be done. You have the army, the navy, the air force, the national guard and the police. Firemen mostly sitting on their asses. "First responders" who mostly sit on their asses. Retired people who can step in. Laid-off people who can do tracking and followup. There are huge resources that are simply untapped. Yes, China has more gate guards already in place, but many if not most of those other positions are retired guys, housewives with nothing to do, students, street sweepers, janitors, volunteers, all different kinds of people stuck into an orange vest and sent out to do a job.

    To succeed, you need the public behind this. And you need someone at the top who is practical and to an extent trustworthy and persuasive. You need cooperation and fortitude, that's the hard part. The isolation task itself is actually rather simple.

    p.s. You already have tracking in place. Google knows everywhere we go and everything we do, even if you purposely avoid them. The phone companies can track you every minute of the day. The US has the world's largest tracking operation already in place, but you are unwilling to use it.

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  6. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by neilho View Post
    All very true. We hope to have testing available soon is what it amounts to. We done screwed the pooch there. The ideal is testing everyone, or at the least, the ability to test everyone who wants to be tested.

    What we don't have, as Rabbi Goldstein points out, is the organized, large group of people doing what needs to be done and the public will to do it. We also need resolved and dedicated leadership at the top.
    All testing of healthy people does is waste medical resources that could be better used elsewhere. What we need to do is treat the sick, try to protect the most vulnerable (but NOT by locking healthy people in their homes!) and get on with the business of life. This unprecedented "national quarantine" is destroying our economy and the livelihood of millions while others actually profit from new opportunities.

    The "cure" absolutely is worse than the disease and the longer it goes on the more long-lasting damage will be done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by iaustinrex View Post
    Such a nice post on Onlineassignmentwriter.Com. Welcome to Onlineassignmentwriter.com where we provide the very best Math assignment help that you could possibly hope for. We have a team of incredibly talented writers who have substantial knowledge about the subject. Since we offer well organized and customized content, you can pretty much relax that things are going to be just fine.
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    Quote Originally Posted by david n View Post
    We don't want your spam...................................
    Don't knock it. By the time this is over Spam might be a luxury item.

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    Quote Originally Posted by EmanuelGoldstein View Post
    Probably no point in arguing this since the US simply won't do it, but it could be done. You have the army, the navy, the air force, the national guard and the police. Firemen mostly sitting on their asses. "First responders" who mostly sit on their asses. Retired people who can step in. Laid-off people who can do tracking and followup. There are huge resources that are simply untapped. Yes, China has more gate guards already in place, but many if not most of those other positions are retired guys, housewives with nothing to do, students, street sweepers, janitors, volunteers, all different kinds of people stuck into an orange vest and sent out to do a job.

    To succeed, you need the public behind this. And you need someone at the top who is practical and to an extent trustworthy and persuasive. You need cooperation and fortitude, that's the hard part. The isolation task itself is actually rather simple.

    p.s. You already have tracking in place. Google knows everywhere we go and everything we do, even if you purposely avoid them. The phone companies can track you every minute of the day. The US has the world's largest tracking operation already in place, but you are unwilling to use it.

    Somebody did it.

    This video is horrifying. They tracked cellphone metadata for all the idiots that came down here to Florida for spring break, and showed their spread back into the rest of the US when spring break was over.

    Cell Phone Tracking Analysis Shows Where Florida Springbreakers and New Yorkers Fleeing Coronavirus Went to Next | Common Dreams News

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    Unchecked, what will emerge is a two class, dystopian society ruled by the wealthy and powerful while the greater mass of people live lives of misery and want.
    Uhh.... Doesn't sound a whole lot different from what we've been working towards for the last 40 years...

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    Quote Originally Posted by TeachMePlease View Post
    This video is horrifying. They tracked cellphone metadata for all the idiots that came down here to Florida for spring break, and showed their spread back into the rest of the US when spring break was over.
    That's indeed appalling

    What else is funny is all the reporters etc who are horrified ! horrified, I tell you ! that this data is available. What did they think Google and Facebook do with their telephone numbers ? Why do they think google and the rest so desperately try to trick/force you into handing that information over ? "Emergency account recovery" my rosy red ass.

    Talk about naive ....

    And then they think it's awful that the government might (ha ha ha) be able to access this, but it's fine for faceblob and google and tweeter ... as if for-profit companies controlling what you see, hear, read and know is somehow better than a totalitarian government ? Fricking unelected unaccountable google is more powerful than the government where it counts.

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    There are 2 reasons to test. For diagnostic purpose or for surveillance. As long as there is a shortage of testing capacity- for whatever reason- health care providers have to be the first priority. It is critical keep them on the job.

    You do surveillance testing to see how the virus is spreading. You design the test to match the area and how "hot" it is. It will be different in different places, it is primarily a data gathering tool, and obviously you isolate the positives.

    We can't do home virus testing of everyone- for one thing you don't want to be sending millions of samples, some of which contain a highly contagious pathogen, through the US mail. And you can be negative when you take the test and get the virus tomorrow. So you have to keep testing people over and over.

    So test people you think may have it, and test to follow the progress of the virus. Test everyone? No.

    We're dealing with a disrupted global supply chain. You can have the testing all setup, and find out- as we did- that the swabs made in Germany are unavailable. Or PPE made in China is unavailable. So now we have a little company in Maine that makes swabs. Other companies making masks. We are trying to ramp up the number of vents from various manufacturers, but we all know that takes time.

    We are at 685,000 tests and counting. South Korea has done 387,000 tests, so quite a bit more per capita than the US still.

    Our number of cases will continue to rise for another week, maybe a little more, then they will flatten out. It will not happen everywhere at the same time, for obvious reasons.

    People talk about "The South Korea Model" and the "China Model", like they are all or nothing choices. It's not that way. There are parts of their responses that we have adopted, and there are parts we haven't. We decided that separating everyone infected and quarantining them would not be very popular, so we want people to self-quarantine. Europe does the same thing.

    We are doing the self-isolation to protect the health care system. Simultaneously we are tracking the spread of the virus so we know where we need to surge capacity.

    As the data improves, the modeling gets better, and it's easier to predict how much social density management is needed in a given place, and hopefully be better equipped to tamp down hot spots as they pop up.

    It's a game of wack-a-mole, the goal is to get the growth factor below one, and allow it to burn out naturally. This is where South Korea is today- they have not eliminated it, they are still getting new cases. But the growth factor is below one, they are resolving cases faster than they are getting new ones.

    A positive note- China has finally agreed to share their clinical and testing data, supposedly they sent one tranche to the CDC yesterday and another today.

    The clinical testing of off-label therapies is going on at a pace that for the FDA, is breakneck. Same for the vaccine candidates.

    We'll get through this okay. High-risk people will have to take extra precautions until a vaccine is developed, but for the rest of the population, the risk should be mitigated with antivirals and some degree of social density management. If it becomes seasonal, and we build herd immunity, it will be just another bug that we learn to get used to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    We decided that separating everyone infected and quarantining them would not be very popular,
    Well, you certainly wouldn't want to lose the popularity contest !

    A positive note- China has finally agreed to share their clinical and testing data, supposedly they sent one tranche to the CDC yesterday and another today.
    https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...tocol-v2-1.pdf

    Berlin, Jan 17th, 2020

    "We acknowledge the originators of sequences in GISAID (www.gisaid.org): National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, China, Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Peking Union Medical College, China, and Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China). We acknowledge Professor Yong-Zhen Zhang, Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center & School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China for release of another sequence (MN908947)"

    China has been sharing information since mid-January. Demonstrably so. But, you know, since it is no good I don't know why you would want it, anyhow ...

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    CDC has been asking for the clinical data all along. Fauci is more articulate than Trump, but I'm not going to hunt for the transcript.

    China will share its data related to the novel coronavirus pandemic with the US and the country will learn from Beijing's experience, President Donald Trump has said, a day after he held an hour-long conversation with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.

    ...

    "We talked about it (coronavirus) because he had additional experience of having been much earlier. And he has developed some incredible theories, and all that information is coming over here. A lot of it's already come. We call it data. And we're going to learn a lot from what the Chinese went through,"

    Read more at:
    China to share coronavirus data with US: Donald Trump - The Economic Times
    We both know, that I understand why you what you do.

    Beijing Fears COVID-19 Is Turning Point for China, Globalization | RealClearPolitics

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    CDC has been asking for the clinical data all along. Fauci is more articulate than Trump, but I'm not going to hunt for the transcript.

    We both know, that I understand why you what you do.

    Beijing Fears COVID-19 Is Turning Point for China, Globalization | RealClearPolitics

    Even if there is an initial outcry, before long - the almighty price will win out aggin.


    ---------------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ox View Post
    Even if there is an initial outcry, before long - the almighty price will win out aggin.


    ---------------------

    Think Snow Eh!
    Ox
    I'm afraid I have to agree with you on that one. I do expect a congressional mandate of some sort. Either a massive increase of stockpiled PPE, medicines, and airway equipment- or a return to domestic supply for the critical stuff. Same for European countries.

    I think many companies, on their own, will look to reduce their dependence on China though. I see it in my own customers.
    Last edited by jancollc; 03-28-2020 at 08:24 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    I'm afraid I have to agree with you on that one. I do expect a congressional mandate of some sort. Either a massive increase of stockpiled PPE, medicines, and airway equipment- or a return to domestic supply for the critical stuff. Same for European countries.

    I think many companies, on their own, will look to reduce their dependence on China though. I see it in my own customers.
    Keeping, adding, and raising tariffs on medical, pharma.. any other strategic imports the US, UK, Canada, EU .. anybody .. feels it is wiser to make domestically is all it takes.

    The "almighty price" then favours avoidance of the tariffs, and bizness sorts it out.

    No WONDER they hate DJT!


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    Quote Originally Posted by thermite View Post
    Keeping, adding, and raising tariffs on medical, pharma.. any other strategic imports the US, UK, Canada, EU .. anybody .. feels it is wiser to make domestically is all it takes.

    The "almighty price" then favours avoidance of the tariffs, and bizness sorts it out.

    No WONDER they hate DJT!

    This is stupid (no surprise.) Tariffs mean countervailing tariffs. Pretty soon what you want to sell sits on the shelves too, while Argentina or Chile or Australia or somewhere else steps up to the plate.

    The proper solution is to decide that society needs certain things and support them. Like public utilities, accept that controls are necessary or the supported parties go ape-shit on greed.

    Japan used to do this and it worked great. Then the world bank and the international monetary fund pressured them to go "free market". Shortly thereafter the Japanese economy tanked and it has not come back since. Hmmm.

    Now, how to control the regulators .... but at least that is possible. Fucking over your entire export business because you don't have the balls to support your own producers directly is stewpid*. Tariffs in general are stewpid, like killing flies with a sledge hammer.

    * Oh yeah, eviscerating Wall Street would help as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Scottl View Post
    All testing of healthy people does is waste medical resources that could be better used elsewhere.
    Not really. Testing large numbers of random people would tell you how wide-spread the disease really is. That can be useful information for planning and perhaps prevention. For example, no one knows yet what the deal is with children. Do they just not get it ? Or do they have the virus and give it to everyone around them without coming down themselves ? No one knows yet. It would be nice to know.

    But if you don't have enough tests, of course you need to use them where they will have the most immediate effect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jancollc View Post
    There are 2 reasons to test. For diagnostic purpose or for surveillance. As long as there is a shortage of testing capacity- for whatever reason- health care providers have to be the first priority. It is critical keep them on the job. ....So you have to keep testing people over and over.

    So test people you think may have it, and test to follow the progress of the virus. Test everyone? No.
    And how does one "follow the progress of the virus" without knowing who has it and who doesn't? Testing everyone is the only way to find that out.

    ....
    Our number of cases will continue to rise for another week, maybe a little more, then they will flatten out......
    You seem pretty sure about that. Based on?

    ...We'll get through this okay. ....
    People get through cancer "OK", too.

    You have more optimism than I do. The economy is in the tank, there's no organized national management, what there is is inept, the infection rate is log scale, people are dying unnecessarily.

    On the positive side, there seems to be competent management at some state and local levels (California's infection rate compares very well with other states) and volunteer efforts are huge.

    I hope you're right. I also hope Scarlett Johansson drops by tonight

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    Being retired, I've kept my family home for the past three weeks except for brief forays to the grocery store. Thankfully, the three of us are still asymptomatic.

    Test everyone? Good luck testing 330 million people.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman109 View Post
    Being retired, I've kept my family home for the past three weeks except for brief forays to the grocery store. Thankfully, the three of us are still asymptomatic.

    Test everyone? Good luck testing 330 million people.
    It can be done if it's important enough and people cooperate. Take a bit of time to ramp up but it certainly can be done.

    As for the utterly idiotic comment by Scotty about wasting resources testing healthy people - just how in hell do you *know* they're healthy if you don't test them, given the long incubation/infectivity period?

    Australia tests as close to 100% of newborns as statistically possible for a variety of treatable metabolic disorders. The vast majority are negative. By Scotty's logic, all those tests are wasted because the babies were healthy.

    Really he should just go & hide under a rock until all this blows over.

    PDW

    PDW

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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman109 View Post
    Test everyone? Good luck testing 330 million people.
    A drop in the bucket. A country of 1.4 billion managed to stomp this while you guys mishandled it about as bad as possible. Scream at me all you like, the numbers don't lie.


    Next interesting point will be, what will you do six months from now ? Continue printing money only twice as much ? Weimar Republic, eh ? Redirect cash from the war department ? decide that putting all your eggs into the funny-money wall street basket is not so smart, or double down by inflating stocks twice as bad ? Did you notice they slipped another tax cut for the 1% into this "relief" bill ?

    Stupid Joe going to run, or Cuomo ? Or will you reelect a proven imbecile ? What direction will the US take in the future ? Double or nothing on stupidity or re-evaluate your positions ?

    Will be quite educational to see what happens next.


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