The lack of general availability of 3 phase power in the USA - Page 13
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  1. #241
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    I just saw in the news that 4300 MW of Illinois nuclear power is going to be shut down soon.

    What's the replacement?

    WHERE is the replacement?

    Where is the extra 25% needed for the new electric cars and stoves, etc?

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    Quote Originally Posted by JST View Post
    I just saw in the news that 4300 MW of Illinois nuclear power is going to be shut down soon.
    What's the replacement?
    WHERE is the replacement?
    The utility does NOT CARE. Their question is, HOW can we make money? The answer is, not with nuclear power. If they COULD make money with nuclear power, they'd keep the plant running. The plant has probably aged out and costs too much to keep running. Translation: NO PROFIT.

    Nobody seems to get this - power utilities don't make power. They make money.

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  4. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by JST View Post
    "Changing the goalposts" is not "in play" here. ...
    You just did it.

    ...There would need to be storage that is "beyond huge" if the existing base load plants are decommissioned, especially just as the electricity usage is being increased by mandating 100% use of electric cars, and even forcing the use of electric stoves instead of gas. Those things are being discussed as "necessary".

    Obviously if the base load coal, nuclear, hydro, and yes, gas-fired base load plants ...
    References, please.

    ...* are left in place there is no need for storage, that is obvious, and hardly needs to be mentioned or discussed. But those plants are being decommissioned as they age out, and there seems to be no appetite for building more. The idea of many seems to be to tear them all down as soon as possible.

    The idea presented by other posters was that "wind and solar can do it all". To do that will require huge storage, an environment destroying surge in building that equipment (in china of course), and drastic lifestyle changes for all. The lifestyle changes will be required because of the scarcity of power and very high prices that will exist for a long time.
    The idea of many, those other people, some say, that old bogeyman. You're speculating and repeating gossip.

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    In the engineering world, what you call "speculation" is called "evaluating possible outcomes"...... And you have to do it to understand what you are doing, or need to do.

    You either have the power, or you do not. If you do not, then to supply it will require taking it from some uses, and putting it to new uses. Since all that power is being used now, it is VERY fair to suggest that many of those uses will have to be eliminated, unless added power sources are found.

    The eliminated uses represent things that will no longer be done. What is the effect of that? Probably people will be unemployed, and/or or everyone will need to be rationed less electric power than now used.

    Speculation? Your words, used by you to make your point... One could call that "loaded" words, intended to cast doubt on the conclusions.

    If there are 100 things, and 20 of them have to be used for something else, then someone has to give up the 20 things to allow them to be used elsewhere. Seems obvious.

    IF there is a 20 to 25% increase in usage forecast due to electric cars, and other newly electrified operations, which apparently is an accepted number as far as government and university studies, then there is a need to provide that much more power, or cut back in other areas to free up that much power.

    If one is seeing thousands of MW being removed, then it is legitimate to ask where the replacement power is coming from, AND where the added power is coming from.

    Large wind turbines provide 3 to 5 MW each. That 4300 MW corresponds to an additional 1400 3MW wind turbines, AND they have to actually have wind at their nominal full power required speed.

    If the wind speed is less, it may take 4x more turbines. Wind turbine power is a cube function, so 1/2 velocity means 1/8 power output. Probably that is not worth it, so I picked 1/4 power arbitrarily.

    After those are replaced, then it is necessary to add 20% more than that. And to do that replacement and addition for each decommissioned power plant.

    Solar power input is about 1 kW per square metre. A good efficiency is 20%, so 200W per sq m is the net output.

    4300 MW needs 21 million solar panels each of 1m^2. And then 4 million more to add the extra 20%. And that is in an area with clear skies. Clouds cut power, so cloud cover adds the need for more panels.

    Now do that calculation for each additional power plant decommissioned.

    Total up the requirements, and estimate how long it will take, and how much energy is required, to replace that power generation capacity, and add 20% more. Don't forget overnight requirements, since many vehicles are in use all day, unable to be recharged when the sun is shining and wind is blowing well.

    We are not yet even looking at the losses in the process, just the raw power numbers.

    Is that a piece of cake? I do not think so. I'd be surprised if you do.

    So, remind me again, where is that replacement power, and the added needs, coming from? And when will we have it?

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    I am aware of the cube rule, capacity factors and Betz's law, having installed somewhere north of a 1000 windturbines, most on windfarms, which you also know.

    "Evaluation of possible outcomes"? In the engineering world, that's only the first step. The second is to start digging for information - find out what's actually happening and base further actions on research. Gonna do that?

    I assume you mean the Byron and Dresden nuclear plants. I don't know what the base load supply will look like when they're shut down, but the grid operator is quoted as saying "Byron and Dresden can be shut down without risk to the larger grid."

    Further reading reveals that the nukes are being shut down voluntarily by the owner (Exelon) because the financials don't work.

    This article is even more interesting. Published in Nuclear Newswire, as you might guess a pro-nuclear rag, it's about regional capacity auctions and the clean energy jobs legislation Exelon hopes will improve the financials enough to make the plants profitable and keep them open. And about how the regional grid will have to rely more on fossil fuel plants as a result. Again, a pronuclear rag, so the fossil fuel remark is to be taken with a grain of salt. If true, it just reveals how complicated politics and finance can be when intertwined, with the result that fossil fuel plants are favored over clean energy by regulations. Kinda screwed up, ain't it?

    So the closure and power replacement question is complicated and makes the " Windmills and solar can't possibly fill the void" argument totally irrelevant.

    Had you spent 5 or 10 minutes on the web instead of posting, you could have begun to find out what was actually happening.

    Instead, you done what you did. Keep right on evaluating possible outcomes.

  7. #246
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    it's just plain simple in many ways. Things are in balance, and you subtract capacity. If you do not ADD any, you end up with less, although there is a need for more.

    Financials don't work for any of many reasons. Especially for Nuc. In that way it can be complicated.

    The Nucs will all be shut down eventually because a lot of them are at or near end of life. Many have gotten extensions already.

    Did I say the renewables could not fill the void? Nope. Eventually they can, probably. It will likely require a LOT more units than is thought by the simple-minded NYC greenies. And some shift in thought.

    There is a good deal of pushback on that. it comes both from farmers who do not want wind turbines in their fields, and environmentalists who have objections to both the manufacturing and installation of solar in the vast quantities needed, as well as "bird shredding" wind turbines.

    I also did not say that those two plants will break the grid if shut down. I've read several articles (before posting). I have seen the arguments you bring up. I am sure there is reserve capability for now.

    The issue is that it is NOT just those two. Many coal and Nuc plants are slated for shutdown in the next 10 years. Nobody seems to connect the increased need for electricity (as natural gas is phased out for home heating and electric car charging is added), and the shutting down of many base load plants.

    At the moment, the base load plants are needed to support wind and solar. Those two are variable, and drop out in short times. That imbalances the grid, and requires increased output form other plants on short notice. Operators of wind etc are being required to have storage to allow a more orderly re-balancing as they shut off and come back on.

    The basic requirement that the grid SHALL AND MUST be balanced is thrown out by variable sources. As those sources become a larger percentage of the grid input, that problem will be larger. It is already a big issue in areas of europe where wind is a large proportion of power. Those areas typically rely on neighboring areas which still have fossil or hydro base load capacity to stabilize their grids.

    Storage is not now sufficient to work effectively even for covering fairly short drop times. When it is sufficient, we will see. I expect there will be some very spectacular accidents as one of those "goes up", before the system is made more safe and reliable. Batteries approach the status of "bombs" as energy storage capacity and density goes up.

    Political considerations will probably delay renewable sources and storage longer than they should be, and I "speculate" that rolling blackouts may become more common in the US while that all gets sorted out.

    It's not a stretch.... take away capacity, don't add it very fast, and you can see the possibility for shortfalls in the near term.

    You prefer to say "it can't happen here", without reasons why not. OK. We'll certainly see who is more correct. Hopefully, required decommissioning will be accompanied by capacity additions to take up the slack, and disruptions will be limited.

  8. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by JST View Post

    There is a good deal of pushback on that. it comes both from farmers who do not want wind turbines in their fields, and environmentalists who have objections to both the manufacturing and installation of solar in the vast quantities needed, as well as "bird shredding" wind turbines....
    Fine, don't put them in their fields if they don't want them. No one is forcing them to. But it is financially attractive for a lot of farmers, and there are a lot of farmers doing it, obviously.

    Yeah, in terms of bird mortality, wind turbines are somewhere around #20 on the list, long after cars, cats, and tall buildings have had their shot at 'em.

    Bird shredders, eh. Prepared to give up your car because it kills birds? Fat chance. So why is that a good reason to shut wind turbines down? You'd be better off killing all the cats.

    ...
    At the moment, the base load plants are needed to support wind and solar. Those two are variable, and drop out in short times. That imbalances the grid, and requires increased output form other plants on short notice. Operators of wind etc are being required to have storage to allow a more orderly re-balancing as they shut off and come back on.
    References, please.

    ...
    The basic requirement that the grid SHALL AND MUST be balanced is thrown out by variable sources. As those sources become a larger percentage of the grid input, that problem will be larger... .
    Speculation. They're all variable. That's what independent grid operators are for, to balance load and supply. If you want to know how Germany, with grid penetration of 50% or so, is handling the "problem", read up on how they manage it. American grid penetration is less than the load variation.

    ...Storage is not now sufficient to work effectively even for covering fairly short drop times. When it is sufficient, we will see.
    We've been over that. You have yet to substantiate that as an existing problem. Remember the rate structure?

    You prefer to say "it can't happen here", without reasons why not....
    That's bullshit. I have never said that in my life. I wrote that storage for reuse at night is not now a financial priority for utilities, as evidenced by their rate structures.

    Chicken little's got nothing on you.

  9. #248
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    Stabilizing issues (and some ways to handle it):

    Grid stability with large wind power integration - a case study | IEEE Conference Publication | IEEE Xplore

    Understanding the impact of non-synchronous wind and solar generation on grid stability and identifying mitigation pathways - ScienceDirect

    Why wind and solar power are such a challenge for energy grids - Vox

    https://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/1.3526179

    Solving the Renewable Energy Grid’s Inertia Problem | Greentech Media

    Storage? Of course it is not an issue now, we have enough coal etc plants to take care of the problem. The issue is what happens as renewables become a larger percentage of the grid input? Those Nuc and fossil base load plants are going to be decommissioned, from age, economics, legislation, etc. That will raise the profile of sources that are largely or entirely off-line at night.

    Bird shredders? Naw, the problem is small.

    But both libtard greenies and the far right are trotting out "bird shredding" and mysterious vibration problems as just some of the reasons not to let anyone put turbines in your fields. You are mistaking my report of what others are saying for something I believe.

    The greenies point out also the huge environmental cost (they claim) of building millions more turbines, and hundreds of millions of panels. There likely is some.

    The far right claims that the energy cost of making a panel (or turbine) is far more than it can ever produce. I think the analysis is flawed, based on false premises designed to get the unfavorable result....

    Is refusing turbines counter to the farmer's economic benefit? Sure. Does not matter.

    Down here, and elsewhere, folks would rather get really sick than put a mask on, let alone get a "Bill Gates chip in a fake vaccination for a disease that does not exist".... Logic and reason has almost zero to do with it. We also refused to allow a transmission line that would bring wind power in from further west. Again, a largely (not entirely) political decision.

    Refusing those "dangerous (and fake) turbines" is nothing by comparison.

    Storage also has a big effect on the variability problem, and the FACT that wind turbines are often off line simply because the grid cannot accept their power at the moment. Storage in the thousands of MW-hours would allow riding through low wind times, and would offer a "place to put" the otherwise un-needed and unusable, but available, power.

    Just keep an eye on any wind farm. Some days turbines are idle that were working the day before. And a day or two later they may be working again. It's up to the dispatchers to accept or decline power from any source, and wind farms have to adapt to what they are allowed to produce. If they could store it, the power would not go to waste.

    Huge storage? Sure. Fifty 3 MW turbines is 150 MW if all are running. There are many farms at least that big in Illinois and Iowa. So one hour of stored power is 150 MW-h of power. Before you know it you are at a thousand MW-h needed storage for just part of a day.

    Solar has much the same issue, but it is not so obvious, because a solar array looks the same whether it is on line, or idle.

  10. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by JST View Post
    ...Storage? Of course it is not an issue now....
    Thank you.

    ...Bird shredders? Naw, the problem is small....
    Ditto.

    ...But both libtard greenies and the far right are trotting out "bird shredding" and mysterious vibration problems as just some of the reasons not to let anyone put turbines in your fields. You are mistaking my report of what others are saying for something I believe....
    Then don't say it if you don't believe it.

  11. #250
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    LOL... way to ignore everything but what you can turn to your account. Done with yah.

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    Hey

    This thread is just like the covid thread, but with fewer players!

    Energy? A few years ago it was "Peak Oil" and how the world would end because of it. (Or was that because of Al Gore? I get confused at times)

    Heck. We haven't even reached Peak Coal yet. Ask our Sino-economic overlords.

    'Putting in coal plants faster than floods can wipe out their dams.

    Meanwhile, Russia is building Nuc plants in Egypt...

    Talking ultimate solution, and using the situation in the USA as the play ground is just that/// A play ground for kids.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SomeoneSomewhere View Post
    3-phase power is readily available here in NZ but it's certainly not free. Even in a new build situation, you're going to pay a connection fee to the lines company that's about $500 more, plus you have to have three phase breakers, distribution, and mains cable. That's another $2k+ absolute minimum I would expect.

    If you're upgrading an existing property to three phase, you're going to pay similar amounts plus need to dig a new trench. I'm not sure who pays if it's overhead.

    There aren't many people doing any kind of home manufacturing; by the time you get to that stage; getting a proper commercial workshop is better in terms of floor space, utilities, not taking up your garage, noise etc.
    What service out on the farm? Here in the States it's "depends on where". Some areas rural 3 phase is common. Some areas, not so much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    What service out on the farm? Here in the States it's "depends on where". Some areas rural 3 phase is common. Some areas, not so much.
    In my area of Canada, depends less on where on more on load. Big Hutterite colony with grain driers and a big chicken barn not to mention a major sized window manufacturing setup? No problem for the utility to run good sized three phase 575 volt.

    L7

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    Quote Originally Posted by JST View Post
    ...require a LOT more units than is thought by the simple-minded NYC greenies. ....
    Your pre-conceived notions are showing through here. The greenies you speak off, are really DOLLARS. Nobody wears hemp clothes, lives in geodesic domes, or has tie-died shirts anymore. The utilities here are interested in dollars and if they think they can make money with PV or windpower, it's not your place to say they can't. If car manufacturers think they can make money on electric vehicles, again not your place to say they cannot.

    If you are serious about the objections (and I have zero doubt you are serious) then I suggest: you not invest in the automotive industry, and prepare for the collapse of the US electric grid. Best of luck.
    Last edited by jim rozen; 08-09-2021 at 01:36 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JST View Post
    LOL... way to ignore everything but what you can turn to your account. Done with yah.
    No need to accuse me. I'm kinda bored with this discussion, maybe you noticed. Prob we can agree on other things, we have so far.

    Have a good day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CalG View Post
    What service out on the farm? Here in the States it's "depends on where". Some areas rural 3 phase is common. Some areas, not so much.
    If you're near to a medium voltage (11kV) line, whatever you want. Typically either single phase 230V to neutral for <=15kVA, or three phase 400V for above that.

    If you're a very long way from a line, you might be on Single Wire Earth Return (SWER), because you can use a lot fewer poles when there's only one wire. They're not installing them much nowadays but I believe you would usually get a 230/460V split phase similar to the US system, not more than maybe 50kVA max.

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    Dumb question but wondered.
    Mid sized dam and has been there since a gleam in Dads eye and maybe his Dad.
    Over the years the power towers have grown.
    I know it cheaper if the voltage is up.
    What is this line volts before a step down for use and is it different than 60-80 years ago?
    Bob

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    Far as I know, the voltages have only grown a little. They have been at hundreds of thousands of volts for large lines going significant distances since way back in the 1930's maybe.

    Really high is more recent, like 750kV. The Pacific Intertie is fairly recent, and is something like 1.5 MV, and DC to boot. (there are rectifiers and inverters to get the DC and recreate AC at the ends.)

    Different utilities have different standards. lots of 100kV distribution, reduced to 7200V or so for local lines, and down to the 240 or 480 from that.

    Not unusual for a large factory to have a substation taking in 12 kV or higher, and reducing to the factory voltage from there.

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    I just read this morning that China has already completed 923,000 public recharging stations throughout China for electric vehicles and is now the leading country in electric vehicles. This is according to Stansbury Research, which I subscribe to. It was written by the editor of "Visionary Investor" Brian Tycangco.


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