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De valuation of the Dollar and Alternative Currencies

thruthefence

Titanium
Joined
Jul 22, 2008
Location
People's Democratic Republic of Louisiana
This is going to be interesting for US Manufacturers. I for one buy a lot of automation / drives / servo products and invariably over the last decade more and more of it has "Made in China" on it. Doesn't matter if it is from Rockwell / Allen Bradley (US Company) or if it is from Emerson Control Techniques (UK Company) or Siemens (German Company) . . . a fair amount of stuff says it is made in China.

If the dollar value goes south - the cost of goods for my business is going the opposite direction.

The flip side of this is that my products become cheaper for non-US customers and my non-US competitors will have a tougher time selling into my back yard. We will see . . . the way things are looking, the US might become the next low cost producer and we can mabey compete with the likes of India and Viet Nam and start making basics again like underwear and coffee pots.
 
I have always felt that the real reason we, the US, went after Saddam, was that he was setting up, and had announced a new oil market that would trade in Euros. It was to open just a couple of months after we invaded. The dollar would devalue greatly if none of the European countries would have to buy dollars to buy oil.

Personally I think we should get it over with. Considering that nobody in Washington, no matter what party your a member of, have the discipline to enact real cuts to really attack our debt problem, nobody has the guts to touch welfare, or medicade, or SS, or defense. I think its not IF the dollar will crash but more like WHEN. And as the saying goes bad news doesn't get better with age. We would be better off as a country to get it over with, let the riots come and go, let the killing come and go, and get back to work.
 
We would be better off as a country to get it over with, let the riots come and go, let the killing come and go, and get back to work.
Spose your one on the recieving end of a bullet?

Stock Futures Mkt took a bungie jump off the cliff this morning... and oil had you bought one contract this morn at 91.50.... is now 95.10... that is $3.60...a cool $3600 profit and cash in the bank at the close of trading.

Does anyone have any constructive ways to get out of this mess?.. Look at Wisconsin, is that going to be the norm for the rest of the states?

Why should those automation products be allowd in to the US without paying a duty or a tax?..
As far as I see it, they shoudl be taxes aprox 25% to be priced correctly according to those that keep trac of such things....

Ohh well.... getcha a HotDog cart and Dont worry, be happy. isnt that how the song goes?
 
There is no other currency that can replace the dollar. Gold comes closest. The euro may be tempting to some, but what if the French don't sign on with the Germans on the bailout fund? There have only been 2 of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) that asked for help so far. The other three are left, and they will be a lot bigger.

If the French do sign on with the Germans, then Germany will again own Paris, this time without firing a shot.

Its iffy if the Euro will survive the decade.
 
Any of you heard of Bitcoin? Google it.

It is some crazy ass weird stuff where you make money with your computer, essentially finding rare solutions to a difficult question. Because these computations cannot be faked (something like trying to guess a difficult password), they have a 'rarity value'.

Get yours now. Only 21 million Bitcoins are possible :D
 
"There is no other currency that can replace the dollar."

Oh yeah? That's what the Brits said about the Pound Stirling. Hundreds of years as the Benchmark currency.

Ask the folks over there how they liked the late 60's, early 70's.

Much less the George Soros Rape of the Pound in the 90's.

look here:

The demise of the dollar - Business News, Business - The Independent

People who sell us "stuff" are tired of us just printing money to pay our debts.
 
Geithner can say whatever he wants, but he doesnt price the dollar against foreign currencies- the world market does.
Theoretically, if you have infinite borrowing power, you could "support" the dollar when it fell against, say, the euro or the yuan.

We DONT have infinite borrowing power.

So its all a lot of hot air.

The dollar will do what the dollar wants to do.
nobody can stop it.

And it will not be universal, against all other currencies the same percentage, or even ALL up, or ALL down.

Some countries currencies will go up or down differently and at different times.

For instance, I go to Argentina a lot, and, in the last 4 years, the US dollar has been going UP against the Argentine peso. As it has against a few other oddball currencies around the world, while it is simultaneously going down against the euro and the yuan.

People have been complaining for years that the Chinese artificially hold the value of the yuan too LOW against the dollar- now, for the last couple of years, they have been letting it float more, and it has gone up- and the same people are now complaining about the declining value of the dollar.

Its a very complicated world market, and if the dollar goes down against some (but not all) currencies, both good and bad things will happen simultaneously- certain american exports will be cheaper to other countries- and, since we export over $1 Trillion a year, you can expect to see american job growth, at places like Boeing, Cat, John Deere, GM and Ford, Haas, and other big american exporters.

as motion guru mentioned, the costs of some imports will go up- which will make some american companies more competitive here, as well.

some prices will go up, and we will have to pay more- especially for things like oil, I would guess. other prices will go down, and, until it happens, its extremely hard to predict which things will go up, and which down, and how that will affect our economy and job situation.

Anybody who tells you its black and white, simple and obvious, is smoking wacky tobaccy.
And Anyone who tells you we can somehow control it, is also on the weed- we just simply dont have anywhere near enough money to buy dollars and support the price, if the world market decides to devalue it.
 
"some prices will go up, and we will have to pay more- especially for things like oil, I would guess. other prices will go down,"

And just what prices would go "down", in the event oil prices doubled over say, a six month period of time?

Housing prices, I would guess.

The thing about the oil business, is that transactions are all done in dollars. If you're German, you trade Marks (or Euros) for Dollars, and trade the dollars for oil.

This can change at any time, if our "friends" decide to create a new trading medium "basket currency", call 'em "oilcreditsimoleons" if you like.

Dollar not the oil trading currency-of-choice anymore? Demand for Dollars goes down, "value" of dollar goes down accordingly.
 
So that means that the gold doubloons Glen Beck had been instructing his tea partiers to buy, which is worth $1800 dollars an ounce (wild assed guess on my part), is only going to be worth what?

Those that take the bait and hoard gold- that is worth so much an ounce- What are they gonna do with it when :hitsthefan: and the dollar is worthless.

They come my way with that gold coin and I will sell them a loaf of bread and a tomato from my garden, and I will keep the change. I wil tell them 'thank you' as they walk away.
 
So that means that the gold doubloons Glen Beck had been instructing his tea partiers to buy, which is worth $1800 dollars an ounce (wild assed guess on my part), is only going to be worth what?

Those that take the bait and hoard gold- that is worth so much an ounce- What are they gonna do with it when :hitsthefan: and the dollar is worthless.

They come my way with that gold coin and I will sell them a loaf of bread and a tomato from my garden, and I will keep the change. I wil tell them 'thank you' as they walk away.

I'm not a gold bug, but sometimes I wonder why not. A lot of reserve banks elsewhere in the world are buying up gold five and ten billion worth at a time recently.

If the dollar fails it will become just paper. At least gold will always have some value, and the bet is that it will once again be the only money you can't corrupt.

Geithner can say whatever he wants-there is a disconnect between his words and reality. Just because he says something with conviction doesn't make it true. Bernanke meanwhile is printing money. Eventually even the unwashed will realise that its not worth working for something that someone else can just conjure up with a finger snap.
 
"oil had you bought one contract this morn at 91.50.... is now 95.10... that is $3.60...a cool $3600 profit and cash in the bank at the close of trading."

Hedge fund speculators making a lot of money I guess. That's what happened the
last time gas went up above 4 bucks a gallon. No shortages, no lack of refining
capacity. Just a bunch of speculators that drove it up.

There were times in history they shot speculators like that. Now those assholes are
an entire industry.
 
"oil had you bought one contract this morn at 91.50.... is now 95.10... that is $3.60...a cool $3600 profit and cash in the bank at the close of trading."

Hedge fund speculators making a lot of money I guess. That's what happened the
last time gas went up above 4 bucks a gallon. No shortages, no lack of refining
capacity. Just a bunch of speculators that drove it up.

There were times in history they shot speculators like that. Now those assholes are
an entire industry.

Those speculators can lose it as fast as they make......even faster. Its not a sure thing until you're looking at yesterday's news. If ya got the balls for it, go get some :)
 
"oil had you bought one contract this morn at 91.50.... is now 95.10... that is $3.60...a cool $3600 profit and cash in the bank at the close of trading."

Hedge fund speculators making a lot of money I guess. That's what happened the
last time gas went up above 4 bucks a gallon. No shortages, no lack of refining
capacity. Just a bunch of speculators that drove it up.

There were times in history they shot speculators like that. Now those assholes are
an entire industry.
It's all supply and demand...
So you "guess"... you really dont know... but guessing's allowed..
Anyone can trade... even you, just learn the rules...

What times?.. and who was it that you think shot speculators??
Common, show an example please??

And just when and where was it illegal to buy at a price and sell it later for a profit?
 
Devalued

The united states was built on the gold standard you print no more currency than you have gold to back up when is the last time any one has seen the gold in fort knox ????? been a while huh ?

What about all these countrys we are paying to rebuild we have to borrow 42 cents on the dollar to give it away it is all about goverment greed plain and simple there is no such thing as middle class america rich or poor.

and with our wonderful free trade agreement thanks Mr Clinton america really is a dying country sorry to say but that is the truth.

Some advise to my fellow americans you need to teach your children to grow a garden and learn all the old world ways of survival.

And also the usa employment rate is up Obama hired 2500 goverment employees what a secret hand shake society

good luck and GOD HELP US ALL
 
" If ya got the balls for it, go get some"

Who's paying? You are, that's who. If you want to subsidize their
gambling, go right ahead. Given that the US is currently at war, and that
oil is a critical resource, I suggest that regulations be re-installed to
limit hedge fund trading for oil.
 


Old news. It hasn't worked out so good.

I'll admit I goofed and should have said there is currently no other currency that can replace the dollar.

Believe all the naysayers and doom and gloom folks you like, the fact remains the USA is still the number one economy by a three to one margin. It takes the entire economies of numbers 2, 3, and 4 plus part of number 5 to equal the economic size of the USA.
 
That's because government spending is included in GDP figures. But you are right we are still a few years away from the Yuan becoming a defacto standard. The Euro doesn't work for reasons already mentioned.

The speculative trade in oil is just an offshoot of big money looking for a home in commodities. (Since the price in US dollars will only go higher over time)
 
Nut case gold buying "hedgers" notwithstanding, there is another reason to be "bullish" on Gold that has nothing to do with Glen beck.

The culture of India holds gold in very high esteem. They want to "hold" physical gold, just like G.Gordon Liddy!

India is a country with a growing wealthy class, that can now afford that gold.

India's Gold Sales Poised to Rise - WSJ.com

and

Strong jewellery sales boost India gold imports in 2010 | 21 December 2010 | www.commodityonline.com

and for gbent

"Believe all the naysayers and doom and gloom folks you like, the fact remains the USA is still the number one economy by a three to one margin."

and we are running on credit cards and egregious consumption.

Our doom & gloom folks on TV aren't the ones talking up an alternative currency, it's the oil sheiks.

I sincerely hope that you are right, but as those same Arabs say, "Trust in Allah, but tie up your camel".
 
" If ya got the balls for it, go get some"

Who's paying? You are, that's who. If you want to subsidize their
gambling, go right ahead. Given that the US is currently at war, and that
oil is a critical resource, I suggest that regulations be re-installed to
limit hedge fund trading for oil.

Yup, we all pay if the price goes up stays up for month or two. That doesn't mean its wrong. Ultimately, if the buying public says "nope, we ain't buying any", then the big shots pull in their horns, and they stop bidding the price up, because they don't want to be stuck with product they cannot sell. Then they get to watch their profits evaporate as they try to sell contracts nobody wants.

And if we are willing to pay the high price, then we are indeed willing. And we will cut back and begin to conserve when and where we can.

Artificial controls won't work in the long run, if for no other reason that nobody has to extract oil if they think they are getting shafted on the price. You can declare a low price and not have any supply and where does that put you?
 








 
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